As far as Eritrea and the Eritrean people are concerned the TPLF is still not a friendly regime.  This is irrespective of the peace agreements and cessation of hostilities.  Thanks to God, right now, Eritrea and Ethiopia are not firing bullets at each other.  However, this does not mean that suddenly the TPLF becomes a friend of Eritrea and the Eritrean people.  Enemies do not become instant friends just because they signed and honored a cease-fire agreement or peace accord. The TPLF regime through its own actions proved itself that it fits a depiction of not a friendly regime to the Eritrean people.  The TPLF expelled so many law-abiding Eritrean citizens and Ethiopians of Eritrean origin without any due process of law; and confiscated their properties illegally.  The TPLF regime has to account for this and other cruelties particularly exhibited during the third offensive.  The books are not closed yet on this. 

The Ethiopian people to be sure are our brothers, and that there are no enmities between the Eritrean and the Ethiopian peoples.  The long-term prosperity of the two nations is intimately interlinked to stability and peace in and unhindered free trade between the two nations. This applies to all neighbor-nations. In order to go down that bright road, however, it becomes incumbent upon the Ethiopians and the Eritreans to cleanse their own houses. 

When it comes to the PFDJ in Eritrea, I have taken a complete metamorphosis.  Since the crumble of the Berlin wall, twenty-seven countries plunged into the transition from communism to democracy in Europe and former Soviet Union. Not more than ten to twelve nations with leaders-in-power who have democratic ideals consolidated liberal democracy, while nations with autocratic leaders in power are stuck in transition. Leadership is about experience, ability to adapt, and a desire to learn from variety of sources. At one time I naively believed that the PFDJ would continuously learn and effectively reform itself.  With their cast of mind, the PFDJ leaders are reaching beyond reform.  This is despite the fact that the PFDJ as an Eritrean mass organization and as an Eritrean institution includes as its members some of the best democrats and patriots Eritrea can offer.  These are people who gave so much to Eritrea.  But the top echelon of the PFDJ will not allow such democrats to have any say on the democratization process of Eritrea either through intimidation or other despotic methods.  Nor did the top echelon of the PFDJ live by the spirit and letter of the very Eritrean constitution that was written and ratified under its own guidance. This group views the constitution as its enemy and it brings all kinds of delaying tactics not to implement it.  Talk about paradox, this is it. On the contrary it is regressing to its collectivist and leftist tradition and culture. The more constructive criticisms are leveled against it, the more it retreats to its old and outmoded shell. 

Any Eritrean organization that calls itself democratic and loyal opposition has to be careful when it approaches Ethiopia.   Though the Ethiopian people are naturally our friends, the current regime or future-regime in Ethiopia may harbor ill intentions towards Eritrea.  This should be taken as a given.  And there is nothing we can do about this behavior except to be aware, cognizant of that possibility, and be on our toes to operate and manage the relationship accordingly. By now we must have learned some valuable lessons of the consequence, to our dismay and disappointment, of the complete trust the PFDJ bestowed on an Ethiopian regime, the TPLF.  We should avoid such obvious mistakes -  �MeLeBeMi AyghBerKah MeLeBeM�n AyKhLakae.�   

There is no logic, major justification or common sense for some Eritrean entity that considers itself a democratic loyal opposition to have any sort of links or any semblance of sympathy with the TPLF. This is not like, for example, democratic Germans befriending the Americans or the British during or after the Second World War.  The thinking that the TPLF does not wish a somalization of Eritrea is not proved on the ground yet.  This kind of thinking does not fly in Senafe, or Adi-Quala, or Barentu.  In short, it has no currency in Eritrea.  It is about time that such oppositions adjust their worldview, in particular that pertains to Ethiopia, and calibrate it to that of the Eritrean people.  Otherwise the Eritrean people will not take them seriously. For sure, the Eritrean people will not allow the balkanization of Eritrea to happen.  There is no need also to whitewash all the sins of the TPLF.  Such statements give a bad name to oppositions.  One can oppose the wrong policies of the PFDJ without kowtowing to and cajoling the TPLF. We have to be wise enough to segregate external policies from internal Eritrean politics 

Just because the TPLF is not a friendly regime does not mean that we have to resolve our differences through war.  The USA and the Stalinist Soviet Union coexisted side by side for almost fifty years without firing shots at each other (or West Germany and the Soviet Union). They did conduct a lot of trades and economic exchanges despite the cold war.  I am not wishing a cold war between Eritrea and Ethiopia, nor am I wishing a relationship akin to India and Pakistan, far from it.  With democratic governments installed in both nations good neighborly relation will naturally come and evolve by itself.  National interests and economic realties will dictate them. For now, we have to recognize that normal relation between Eritrea and Ethiopia may be a long way from being realized. In fact it is imperative on Eritreans and Ethiopians to recognize that the PFDJ and the TPLF are the primary obstacles to prosperity and democracy in Eritrea and Ethiopia respectively. Still, we should not meddle in Ethiopian affairs nor should we allow Ethiopia to meddle in ours.  If we Eritreans are unable to bring democratic changes through our own efforts, then we do not deserve to be a democratic state.  However, I have complete faith in the Eritrean people and in due time all the necessary democratic reforms will come in Eritrea through the efforts of the Eritrean people themselves. 

These days it appears that the international climate is not favorable for small nations.  The Bush Administration seems hell-bent to demolish the Iraqi regime.  In that endeavor it looks that it may even go alone without the blessing of the UN.  The Iraqi government without doubt is despicable and despotic regime. But does any nation have any mandate to change a regime that it does not approve of?   The danger of this kind of precedent is that it may give a free rein for bigger and stronger nations to enforce regime-change on smaller nations or attempt to annex weaker nations.  There are many nations that may be waiting in the wings.  And once the Bush Administration takes the initiative then there is no rationale to stop other nations from doing the same.  Who is going to argue with a straight face that what is kosher for Uncle Sam is off limits to others.  Who will have the moral authority to challenge those nations that may take international law into their own hands?  Some social scientists point out the possibilities of other nations trying to do what the Bush Administration is contemplating in regime-change.  Among them are Russia may invade Georgia, or India may invade Pakistan, or China may invade Taiwan, or Israel may accelerate its destruction of the West Bank. The list goes on. Once the invasion of Iraq starts the big powers will not give a damn what takes place in an obscure place such as Eritrea.  Those of us who cannot stand the top echelon of the PFDJ have to be aware of this dangerous international climate and its ramifications to small nations. Many of the opposition groups who are amicable with TPLF are not transparent organizations, and we do not know their dealings. It is prudent to state, they need to be very careful that the TPLF does not misconstrue their relationship for a pretext of war on regime-change. 

As always the answers to all these impasses and dilemmas are certainly within the decisions of the PFDJ leadership.  Among the significant ones are: implement the constitution; abide by the rule of law; release all prisoners of conscience and the elders and the journalists; restore the private press; seek feedback; see issues from new angles; govern Eritrea in accordance with genuine consent instead of implied consent; hold fair-and-free elections.  Then, Eritrea irrespective of the international conditions will be in control of its destiny.  In reality, by subverting the ratified Eritrean constitution, the PFDJ is falling directly and continuously into the trap of the TPLF.  The PFDJ through its own deliberate actions has polarized and divided the Eritrean society. Instead of pointing fingers at those who visit Ethiopia, the PFDJ can change the situation to the advantage of the Eritrean people, if it re-assesses itself and rectify the gross errors it is committing and implement the constitution as a viable roadmap to liberal democracy.  This is the honorable thing to do.  Definitely, it will go a long way towards rapprochement.  And eventually it will unify the Eritrean people; at least as far as external forces are concerned.