In a further sign of the deterioration in relationship between two small African neighbors, Djibouti has recalled its ambassador to Eritrea, Mr. Ahmed Issa, and expelled Eritrea's ambassador to Djibouti, Mr. Mohammed Saeed Mantai, who returned to Asmara on the 16^th of June. 

The move came shortly after Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki told Yemeni President Ali Abdella Saleh that Eritrea would "by no means" engage in any diplomatic activity to reduce the tension between Eritrea and Djibouti. 

A "Fabricated" Tension  

Asmara's rejection of Sana'a mediation was the last in a series to invitations made by various nations and organizations. 

The Arab League, which called for dialogue and had initiated fact-finding mission to Eritrea and Djibouti (the latter is a member of the Arab League) was denied a visit to Eritrea on May 8^th.   

The Organization of Islamic Conference (Djibouti is a member) has also called for direct talks between the two antagonists and is likely to call on Eritrea to withdraw its troops from "Djibouti territories" when it holds its congress in Uganda. 

The Inter Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a regional grouping of East African nations (from which Eritrea withdrew to protest the group’s Somalia policy) has condemned Asmara and called for dialogue.  

The EU Commissioner for Development, Mr. Louis Michel; the United Nations, the United States and the African Union (where Eritrea has no representation because AU's capital is in Addis Abeba) have all called for dialogue.  

While spurning all the calls, and responding furiously to US criticism, Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki has characterized the tension between Eritrea and Djibouti as one that is fabricated entirely by the United States and Ethiopia.  

Isaias’s Formula For Peace 

While downplaying the magnitude of the tension between Eritrea and Djibouti, President Isaias Afwerki has tried to impress on his interlocutors that the real cause of tension, instability and war in the region is the United States which employs “servile states” to maintain its hegemony. 

Isaias tells his visitors that he doesn't see a problem with Djibouti but with Ethiopia (a “servile state”) and its "sponsor" the USA.  The problem with Djibouti ("a servile state to a servile state") would be solved if (1) it takes its hands off the affairs of the Somali opposition and (2) if the USA would pressure Ethiopia to vacate Eritrean territories based on the ruling of the EEBC.  

Told of the conditions for peace, Djibouti says that it has a bigger stake in Somalia than Eritrea does and rejects Isaias’s orders in that regard and that it has nothing to do with US and Ethiopian policies regarding the Eritrea-Ethiopia border dispute. 

“Fabrication” Explained  

When Isaias Afwerki says that the news about Eritrea and Djibouti is fabricated, he does not mean that there is no tension.  “What he means is that there is nothing new about the tension; the only thing that is new is that Djibouti is being assertive—and this can only be because it is being encouraged by Ethiopia and the USA,” according to our source.  

Our source points to the two previous crisis of 1996 and 1999. 

In 1996, there were claims of shelling Ras Doumeira and border incursions. 

In 1999, General Ramadan Awliyay was Eritrea’s ambassador to Djibouti.  28 days into his ambassadorship, he was asked to leave Djibouti after Isaias accused the late Djiboutian President Hassen Gouled Aptidon of siding with the Ethiopians in the Eritrea-Ethiopia conflict.   An Eritrean spokesman accused Djibouti, which then as now was providing port services to Ethiopia, of being an Ethiopian “extension.” Djibouti called its Ambassador in Eritrea—the same Ahmed Issa, it has recalled now.  

Throughout the 1996 and 1999 crisis, there were no strong public statements issued by the US, the EU, the AU, or the Arab League.   Thus, Isaias is not asserting that he did nothing wrong; he is only asserting that the response is disproportionate to his wrongdoing.  

Escalation 

Eritrea and Ethiopia, which are having their proxy war in Somalia, appear set to take the fight to neighboring Djibouti. 

Unlike lawless Somalia, Djibouti enjoys the strong support of two superpowers—France and the United States—who are unlikely to allow instability to spread to the area.  

A few days ago, an Eritrean speed boat was allegedly sunk by a military helicopter on the southern entrance to the Red sea close to the location of the Djibouti Eritrea border. Djibouti’s military means are too modest to carry out such precise targeting—leaving only France, the US or Ethiopia as the more likely executors.
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It will be hard to find a resolution to the conflict, until Eritrea admits that there IS a conflict.