Wow! time flies. 17 years since independence
15 yeas since the referendum
11 years since the ratified constitution was shelved
47 years since the launch of the armed struggle for independence Yes, time flies even when you are having no fun! Our First Revolution The people of Eritrea’s quest for justice, liberty and a right to self-determination was waged under incredible set of circumstances; against unwavering, well armed, highly supported successive Ethiopian regimes –and it culminated with Eritrea’s independence. Tyranny was battling a will of the people, and the people won. In 1993, for the first time in their entire history, the Eritrean people were given a chance to voice their opinion via the ballot box. They were asked whether they want to be an independent country or not. They voted with a resounding yes. What a novel idea! Actually giving people a chance to exercise their choice. It turns out those who claimed Eritreans did not want to govern themselves were lying and they did their utmost to suppress it. The Revolution scored a giant leap forward. May 24, 1991 was an important landmark but it was on April 27, 1993, the day the referendum results were announced, that the Eritrean Revolution achieved one of its goals. The fact that we celebrate our military victories far better than the sanctity of our people’s voice should give us an inkling of what we value most –albeit unintentionally. By misplacing its priorities of what its goals were, the Eritrean Revolution may have lost its soul from the get-go. Winning the war was a means to an end, and not a goal unto itself. The goal was to win the war, have a referendum, figure out how to govern the country justly and live as happily as other nations do. Nothing more and nothing less. What we have now sounds like an unfinished business –a half baked kicha that desperately needs to go back in the oven. Since the referendum of 1993, we have been gliding, spinning and twirling aimlessly. But our journey toward creating that just way of governing ourselves seems as far away as it was in the years prior. Instead, we entered a period of false hope, betrayal, death and destruction; reconstruction and repair; confusion and despair; melancholy, paralysis, anger and even identity crisis. The long awaited defeat of the Derg army ushered not only euphoria but also amnesia. We quickly forgot what exactly we fought and died for. Very sad set of affairs, yet, not surprising at all. That is what happens when the guiding principle or the moral center gets lost. In these sober times, so long as we are willing to place the Revolution back on its track and keep moving it forward, there is hope. The quench for a creating a just system is still there and it is still just. The Revolution was launched as a means to obtain our aspirations. The Ghedli was one of the tools we needed for the Revolution to achieve its goal. Yes, we have “romanticized” and “fetishized” Ghedli and may even have confused it for our cure. The ongoing discussions about the virtues of how we view ourselves vis-à-vis the institutions that were supposed to be our tools are to be commended. It shows a somber realization that even our Next Revolution can get out of hand if left to live beyond its use. But, if that is what the people of Eritrea are guilty of as the enemy bombarded, raped and pillaged our villages and cities, then, so be it –nothing to be ashamed of or apologize about. Shame on those who betrayed a peoples sacred trust by hijacking the Revolution in search of some failed communist dogma. This article builds up on Saleh Johar’s Unfinished Job –a well-expressed analysis of why we need a “second liberation”. Our Next Revolution should be a drive toward that goal; ending tyranny and replacing it with a just system. It is an honorable goal that any citizen should be proud to be contributing towards. Call it democratization, second liberation, independence 2.0, finishing the job or whatever other label fits. It is going to require coming to terms with the new realities, acknowledging the past and creating a vision for the future. The best word to describe this phenomenon is revolution –despite the word’s resonance to its socialist past. After all, it will involve replacing old ideas with something new; shifting the power of the state to the people; overthrowing tyranny; and ushering a new tradition of prizing individual freedom more than collective glory. We all agree that that the promise of Eritrea’s Revolution was not fully attained. Awet Nhafash has not yet materialized –unless you define Hafash as only those who wield power at a barrel of a gun. Awet Nhafash. Victory to the masses. Power to the people. Power for the people, so they can choose how they want to be governed. For the people and by the people. It turns out we still have those liars who claim the people of Eritrea do not want to have that choice; and once again they are doing their utmost to suppress it. Déjà vu. Thus, the Revolution enters its Next phase. Our Next Revolution Now, you may ask, isn’t that what the opposition camp is exactly doing –conducting our next revolution? Indeed, there are no disagreements about their intention to end dictatorship and replace it with constitutional governance; but their mode of operation leaves a lot to be desired. Synergy, excitement, vision, pride and hope and not to mention a sense of urgency are lacking. Synergy among the various actors; excitement about each step and progress; vision for post PFDJ Eritrea; pride about principle centered independent movement; and hope that if given full support the Next Revolution will deliver on its promise. If you are not jumping for joy or feeling excited about the Alliance’s latest achievements, you are not alone. Isaias Afeworki is not trembling either. He may be concerned about a possible all-out Ethiopian invasion, but not about an organic Eritrean Revolution aimed at rescuing the nation from his firm grip. So how do we bring back the energy, the belief, the vision and the thrill back to this struggling movement? Here are a few suggested ideas… Coming to Grips with the New Realities Before we even delve into what needs to be done, it is important to realize that the revolution of 2008 can not possibly look and feel like that of 1968. Excuse me for stating the obvious, but in 40 years we have to expect that a lot of things have evolved. Political theories, mode of communication, media reach, speaking style and yep, even hairstyle. Adapt to what is now and new or become extinct like the dinosaurs. Cutting that Afro to size is not a bad idea either. Dude, that is so…1978! But seriously, it is not like we’ve failed to notice the lapse of time; it is that some of us are not coming to grips with the obvious necessity to change. Time for a Paradigm Shift For revolutionary ideas that are rooted in today’s realities to take place, there must be a proportional adjustment in our mindset and attitude. We must be open to welcome the realization that what was true and right yesterday is not necessarily so today. We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them, as Einstein put it. And who dares argue with Albert Einstein? It is time for those who want to see a rapid and viable change in Eritrean politics to consider a new and revolutionary approach. If the Next Eritrean Revolution wants to win the hearts and minds of the vast majority of Eritreans, it is time we start implementing some symbolic yet very important steps. This is not about how to conduct an opposition movement; it is how to win. Eritrea’s Demographic Wave No matter which number you believe is correct about Eritrea’s population, it roughly breaks down like these: 50% are under 18 years of age; 30% are between the age of 19-40; 17% are in the 40-64 age group; and the rest, a mere 3%, are older than 65. There are approximately 150,000 new births and 40,000 deaths each year; and the country’s life expectancy is around 57 years. A lot of numbers to digest, but what are they telling us? Here is what I found to be very glaring. - About half of the people were born AFTER independence (1991) - 80% of the population is under the tender age of 40 (Generation X and Y) The general supposition is that your current age shapes your world outlook. Any organization or movement that is not taking these realities into consideration will fail miserably at getting the intended message across. Rise of the Eritrean Youth Simply put, the Next Eritrean Revolution should be coordinated, conducted and led by the youth. The time has come for the younger generation (which makes up the majority) to rise to the occasion. The drastic change and energy we need can not be gotten from those who cling to yesterday and don’t see the possibilities of today and tomorrow. Assuming that one generation is 20-25 years, we currently have 3 generations. The generation that came of age in the 1960s and 1970s has been dominating our politics to date. For all intents and purposes, they have take over what amounts to two generations’ worth of national agenda. It may be understandable, but something that can’t go forever. Look at the demographic data and it is clear that those who are, say, under 45 years of age, should be taking front and center of our Next Revolution. Members of this generation are indeed already taking their historic responsibility. The brave confrontation between Asmara University students and the government during the summer of 2001; the subsequent arrest and escape of the president of the student union; the members of the independent media who are rotting in jail; the nascent South Africa based Eritrean Movement For Democracy and Human Rights; and all the rest of budding youth movements are heartening. These are what revolutionary stories are made of. A group of young, smart, and motivated youngsters challenging–against all odds–tyranny and injustice. But their current numbers pale in comparison with those who should and can be participating Just as in revolutions of the past, this generation should not expect to be gently handed the torch of leadership. It should fight for and earn it, stand-up and gain it. The wind is blowing in its favor so it should not be as hard as it use to be. The notion that the youth don’t possess the same experience as their “battle hardened” older freedom fighters is a moot argument. Of course there is something to be gained from experiences of the First Revolution, but today’s younger generation is best equipped to lead the movement toward peaceful change –and yes that even includes members of the YPFDJ. And yes, there is such thing called Young PFDJ. Two things I would like to say to this group. First, what a cool logo -a fist clinched youth raising his arm to the heavens seemingly demanding….long live PFDJ. Cool logo, cool t-shirts, and cool looking young people. Secondly…are you $#*! kiddin me! Young and PFDJ!? You benefit from living in the free world and you are for despotism, arbitrary arrest and torture? That is unbecoming of the youth. Young HGDeF is simply an oxymoron. You should be carrying photos of those who are denied justice not of those who are doing the harm. In this day and age it is inexcusable to act dumb or hope no one else will notice or care. You owe it to yourself not to get caught with your pants down when the inevitable light of liberty shines soon. But the message should be lost on the rest of us. This is the result of scattered and unorganized opposition who failed to take into account what is happening today. It has essentially become easy for the likes of Yemane Monkey and Zemheret to offer cheap patriotism in exchange for blind support of a dictatorial regime. Could this be their scheme of passing their vile values to the next generation? I think not. Far too stupid an idea to work. Nevertheless, it is their way of flipping the middle finger at the ones they oppress and victimize, as well as at those who advocate for human rights in Eritrea. Which brings my next point… It’s Marketing, Stupid! In a peaceful movement all we have is the option to compete in the idea market place and try to win. We have to humbly realize that we are dealing with a population that is far better educated and informed than past generations. They also have been let down by those they trusted so there better be a good reason why any substitute should be given a chance. The mentality, “better the devil you know than the angel you don't”, still persists. Having said that, there is a huge opportunity for any organization to gain the trust and support of virtually the vast majority of the population, but that trust and support has to be earned. At this time no one can claim that they have that support; but it is there for there for the taking. The PFDJ does not conduct itself as a political party. It doesn’t see the need to defend its ideology or debate new ones. It is a just a vast network of a marketing and sales organization. It lures homesick Diaspora by supplying their demand for getting close to their people and culture. In the process, it does not only generate badly needed revenues but also visual images for its propaganda machine. If you are not convinced with this notion, consider this: Eritrea’s Independence Day is upon us. Young Eritreans will flock to PFDJ parties throughout the world. Some of them escapees of Eritrea’s torture dungeons. As mind-boggling as it is, the reason is the PFDJ has managed to monopolize these events simply because the opposition camp is not competing. What is the alternative for young Eritreans who work 7 days a week in meager jobs? To stay home and wallow about the enormous problems facing the country, or go out and enjoy life a little? Celebrating Eritrean holidays should not be a sole domain of agents of totalitarianism, it should be the natural platform of advancing the causes of liberty. The Ghedli-centric opposition may find it hard to grasp this phenomenon, but it should be clear to those who are more grounded in today’s realities. Something to ponder about for the next Eritrean holiday… The End of Jebha Shaebia Politcs At a risk of offending those who served and are still members of these organizations, the Next Eritrean Revolution should lay to rest this stale era of divisive ideology where it belongs –in the annals of history. We owe those tegadelti who have honorably given their life and youth for a better tomorrow, a debt of respect and gratitude; but we do not owe them our lives. Each generation has its immediate concerns to tackle. For too long now, we all have been forced to use the contentious Jebha Shaebia prism to view our world. What may or may not have happened during the ELF-PLF split or at the congress of Adobaha has very little to do with the issue of democratization of Eritrea today. We heard a lot of horrendous stories, but the fact of the matter is, it could have been much worse. We had a civil war, but it was neither Darfur nor Rwanda. History will always be biased and partial. It produces obnoxious winners and sore losers; and then there are the rest of us. The only way to bury this hatchet is for the younger generation to take a leading role of the opposition movements. Existing organizations can facilitate this by promoting their younger player to position of prominence. It is not only symbolic; it is the pragmatic thing to do. Our Next Revolution should not be about the ideological divide of Isaias Afeworki and his nemesis from the ELF camp. Neither should it be about the intra-organizational split within the PFDJ. Once again, it should be about giving our people a voice, a choice and dare we say, a vote, on how they are to be governed. Until that atmosphere is created no one has an exclusive say on what form of government, which flag and which language will preside over others. The Ratified Eritrean Constitution If the objective of our Next Revolution is to erect a system of government that ensures the freedoms and liberties of its citizens, then the shortcut to that destination is to push for the implementation of the ratified constitution. This should be a sensible and acceptable to do for the generation that has been side-stepped so far. Leave the egos and conspiracy theories aside and one can see the amendable constitution guarantees enough freedoms that can be built upon. Moreover, the PFDJ government would find it hard to twist the motive of any movement that is clearly and simply calling for the immediate implementation of the constitution. The opposition stance should be simple and unambiguous. That is what is required in communicating with the Eritrean public and in garnering the support of the international community. Let’s face it, Eritrean political discourse has not yet been conducive to the art of compromise. But our Next Revolution, led by fresh blood, has an historic opportunity to lead us by this very example. The Free Media Isaias Couldn’t Choke The internet has proved to be as a potent weapon in fighting tyranny as was the AK-47 (Kalashnikov) during the liberation war. Couple it with satellite TV, mobile phone and radio broadcast, and you can deliver a serious blow to any system that is trying to block the free flow of ideas among its citizenry. Today is about instant messages, mp3 players, bandwidth, Paltalk discussion, blogs, text messages, Youtube videos, webcams, social networks and iTune downloads. Gadgets and widgets we could not even fathom 10 years ago. Could the day we dance to our revolutionary songs totting laptops be that far away? Ok, ok…we’re getting carried away now… However, the Next Revolution can easily take a conscious initiative to utilize a combination of these and other technologies to further advance the causes of the second liberation. Yes, a number of these are already being used and those individuals and groups who are charting new territories should be applauded. What is lacking though is a centralized, systematic, intense and measurable approach in engaging the public using the medium they prefer and use. There is a good reason why ERI-TV is the dominant media for Eritreans everywhere. It does not have any serious competitor. For a lot of people, it is also the sole source of homeland entertainment and information (not withstanding its propagandistic nature). It is not beyond the reach of those who want to offer an alternative view to pull their resources and launch a satellite TV channel. It has not been any easier as it is right now to so. But these dividends are possible only when the younger, more educated, more energetic Eritrea’s Generation Next is given a chance to take the leading role. A Charismatic Leader Needed Gasp! I hear you…as the Tigrigna saying goes, “temen zrayes blHSi tedahle”. It is totally understandable that because of our experience with Isaias Afeworki, we will be wary of any one leader who tends to stand out. We may even conclude that our sorry situation can be attributed to following a charismatic revolutionary leader that has gone astray of the vision. But beyond the visceral knee jerk reaction, one can easily see that what caused us havoc in the end was the blind following and not necessarily our decision to celebrate a charismatic leader. When you want complex vision to be understood by the common folk, when you want to emanate optimism and hope; when you want to generate enthusiastic followers –you need someone to articulate that. At the end of the day you need someone to embody and express that. If our Next Revolution to bring about the natural rights of life and liberty to every Eritrean citizen is to be realized, it is going to need a charismatic leader. Bluntly speaking Martin Luther King and Hitler have something in common. They were both charismatic leaders. The difference is in the contents of the ideals. As long as we are firmly grounded in the righteousness of our vision, a charismatic leader is as important as the confidence and comfort we want that vision to convey. So, do we have these remarkable, articulate, inspiring and heroic personalities amongst us? Someone who can quickly garner respect of his or her peers and with exceptional ability to organize and lead people? Of course we do! We can’t afford to believe that we are all endowed with the same kind of talent. The sub culture of “radical equality” is neither effective nor realistic. Therefore, it is imperative that we encourage, cajole and push those who posses this natural gift. After all, remember, it is marketing and sales. Having a great sales person should be part of that package. Ethiopia, the 800-pound gorilla in Eritrean politics Eritreans have good, honest and justifiable reasons not to trust Ethiopia. It is an overbearing, huge, intimidating and ambitious neighbor. Eritreans have spent over half a century having to contend with the very real and sometimes perceived threats coming from Ethiopia. So much so, most Eritreans would rather die defending their homegrown tyrant than give in to the demands of their neighbor who yet has to be considered neighborly. This is the undeniable view of most Eritreans. Add to this the border issue that have left both sides in suspended animation for the past 10 years, and you enter a world of paranoia and utter mistrust. It is against this backdrop that the most recent meeting of the Eritrean Democratic Alliance (EDA) took place in Addis Ababa. It is not clear what the exact message the EDA wants the Eritrean people to take, even though it is abundantly clear what they want to infer to Isaias and his regime. Whatever it is, the 800-pound gorilla in the room is not easy to ignore. It is like having a meeting of Palestinian leaders in Tel Aviv hoping no one would find it a bit odd. It is not the intention; it is the perception that matters. If the Next Eritrean revolution is to be realized, it is very crucial that the movement draws unambiguous, clear and concise stance when it comes to Ethiopia. The quest for democracy in Eritrea can not be achieved with a hostile neighbor orchestrating the moves. Again, it is not about justifying intentions, it is about what the perception is. Ethiopia will be our neighbor forever but it does not have to a hostile neighbor. The biggest setback to Eritrea’s democratization process is not only Isaias’ insatiable quest for power, but it is also Ethiopia’s belief that it can punish the regime without making enemies of the Eritrean people. It is said that democracies are less likely to wage wars against each other. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Meles Zenawi seems to believe that as well –at least if his interviews are to be taken at face value. At this juncture, Ethiopia has the opportunity to contribute towards this mutually beneficial goal. Right now, by continuing to prolong the implementation of the border ruling via creative yet clearly deceitful maneuvers, it simply lacks the good will with the Eritrean people. However, this dynamic can change quickly while at the same time hastening the demise of dictatorship in Eritrea. Despite the horrendous events that took place between the two countries, it is undeniable that Meles Zenwai represents the moderately reasonable view toward Eritrea. There are extremists within his government and his party; but he remains more level headed than many. His most notorious opponents –who are ironically being encouraged by the PFDJ –plainly want to reverse Eritrea’s independence. At least the Prime Minister seems to have learned that you simply can not forcibly annex your neighbors and hope to live in peace. We have to acknowledge his consistent view and encourage him to take the natural next step by unilaterally withdrawing his troops from the uncontested Eritrean territories. This can be done without creating undue contention within Ethiopia while at the same time denying Isaias an iota of moral victory. But it will go a long way toward creating a democratic system in Eritrea that will also ensure peaceful coexistence with Ethiopia. It is only when the opposition assumes this kind of clear, unadulterated stance that their credibility and trust can gain badly needed boost from the Eritrean public. Anything less would be hoping that the 800-pound gorilla in the room blends with the furniture. The Seventeen-year itch
The Derg’s demise came on the 17th year of its rule. Chile’s military dictator Augusto Pinochet also ruled for 17 years. Is there some scientific or astrological rule that says the end of dictatorship is nearing for Eritrea as well? Let’s hope so. May be there will be a miracle. May be there won’t. But it shouldn’t stop us from switching gears and pressing forward. The peaceful battles that have to be fought by the Next Eritrean Revolution are numerous. We have to fight ignorance, lies, deceits, backwardness and dictatorship and replace them with enlightenment, truth, openness, progressive and democratic ideals. We should not be distracted nor give up this virtuous fight. The Eritrean people deserve better than celebrating their independence without liberty. We can do better. Our people have already paid for that right. It’s time for the unfinished business, to be finished. Happy Independence Day!
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