The Eritrean government and its supporters in the Diaspora are preparing to celebrate Independence Day as usual, with impressive pomp and pageantry. Eritrea, however, still remains “a nation of fleeing masses” and is one of the main generators of refugees in the continent. According to official UNHCR statistics, over 15,000 Eritreans fled to the Sudan during 2007 alone. The exact number of Eritrean refugees in the Sudan is unknown. Estimated figures ranging 130,000-250,000 are mentioned in different sources. The number of refugees who fled to the “archenemy” Ethiopia in 2007 was estimated at 7,500, bringing their total number up to 25,000. These refugees risk their lives by fleeing over heavily-mined borders, tightly patrolled by over 200,000 soldiers who have strict instructions to use machine gun fire on anyone trying to slip over the border. It may be true that recipient states and international relief organizations tend to inflate the number of refugees somewhat in order to secure a sympathetic response from donor governments; conversely, the Eritrean regime admits not the existence of a single Eritrean refugee – only misguided draft dodgers and traitors!

The majority of the refugees are still peasants, pastoralists and minority ethnic groups like the Kunama – a people on the verge of extinction. The latter are the victims of forced confiscation of ancestral land, relocations, ethno-cultural domination and religious persecution, as well as victims of periodic conscription galvanised by wars and the uneven reallocation of sparse resources and manpower from agricultural production into military idleness. They seek refuge in the neighbouring states whose geographic, linguistic and cultural settings are similar if not identical to their own, with a hope of returning once peace is restored. The course of events following upon the independence of Eritrea demonstrates that such hope is often faint and remote.  For example, out of the 60,000 pre-independence refugees who were programmed for repatriation from the Sudan during 2002, only 19,000 were repatriated before the programme was stopped. Several obstacles prevented the realisation of UNHCR’s repatriation goal: the Eritrean government’s worsening human rights record, the refugees’ political affiliations, security incidents, and above all the Eritrean government’s inability to resolve any disagreement through dialogue and negotiation.

A minority of the refugees are urban people fleeing harsh repression for their political activities and/or religious convictions, forced conscripts who have spent years in semi-desert trenches facing an enemy dug-in across the border, or young people who, threatened by political insecurity, never-ending mandatory military conscriptions, unemployment and difficult economic conditions, are attracted to seek a safer and hopefully a better life where they may even be able to help their aging parents and other needy relatives.

A small privileged group composed of the children and families of high government officials and ministers as well as of loyal cadres, some in need of specialised medical diagnosis and treatment, are allowed to travel via Asmara Airport and encouraged to acquire permanent residence permits in the West, posing as paperless political asylum seekers. When granted refugee status they travel frequently to Eritrea and remain ardent supporters of the regime from whom they have sought ‘asylum’. Likewise, many of the perpetuators of human rights violations in Eritrea have their entire families transferred abroad and travel regularly to visit them. Unfortunately, the behaviour of this bogus group casts doubt on the credibility of the majority of Eritrean refugees who have a solid moral and legal case for asylum in the West.

The fates of the majority of  Eritrean refugees – some of whom fled the country as early as the 1960s, are as follows: either they get stuck in miserable refugee camps, to wait in enforced idleness for repatriation programmes; or they accept resettlement programs to the US and other countries; or they embrace employment opportunities in the rich Gulf States; or they cross the Sahara Desert on camel back or poor vehicle tracks only to become easy prey to yet other smugglers who demand exorbitant fees for the Mediterranean crossing on hopelessly overloaded and decrepit boats. Today, indeed, the Sahara and the Mediterranean have become major graveyards for Eritrean refugees. Smuggling and human trafficking is also a most lucrative ‘business’ for Eritrean generals and underpaid security officers who, for the right price, will dispatch people direct from the trenches of the Ethio-Eritrean border to the capital city of a European nation.

The vast extent of human suffering in the Eritrean refugee camps in the poor neighbouring countries is well-documented. Many refugees, particularly the young, suffer from malnutrition, dehydration, dysentery, malaria, tuberculosis, HIV/aids, depression, anxiety and symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder. The plight of the Eritrean refugees in the Sudan and in such newly-created ‘refugee towns’ as Shemelba in Ethiopia is well publicised.  Yet, the UN´s refugee organizations spend less per capita here than anywhere else. Moral or material support to Eritrean refugees from the affluent Eritrean Diaspora in the West is virtually non-existent.

The large number of refugees is of course a cumbersome burden on the economies of these poor developing countries. Even if some of the aid destined for the refugees always finds its way onto the open market, the reception of refugees, in particular by local people, has been extremely generous. Although there are reported incidents of assassinations and kidnappings inside the Sudan, committed by Eritrean security agents, no case of forced repatriation had been reported until recently. In December 2007, however, approximately 4000 refugees were abducted from Sudan by Eritrean soldiers, with the covert or tacit cooperation of Sudanese security officers.

Certainly, the militaristic regime in Eritrea can not be accused of deliberately encouraging people to leave the country. It does, however, try to derive maximum advantage from the plight of the victims of its policies. The regime’s institutionalised policy of collective punishment penalises the parents of those who flee the country, or those who are caught or killed doing so, with a fine of 50,000 nakfas (US $ 3340) per child. Those who are unable to pay are sent to jail and their land and other properties confiscated. Penalising old people in their seventies and eighties for acts for which they are not liable is an indication of total moral regression and is unique in the modern history of Eritrea.

The refugee exodus is seen by the regime not only as a means of ridding the country of potential opposition and relieving unemployment, but also as a way of increasing the number of Eritrean expatriates, whose remittances, along with the income tax of 2 % imposed on all, including those who hold European and US citizenship, are the regime’s primary source of hard currency. Many Diaspora Eritreans, fooled perhaps by the asserted threat to national security and the regime’s promises for a brighter tomorrow, have willingly become uncritical mouthpieces abroad. They have also become vital ingredients in the regime’s televised propaganda programmes for local consumption aiming to show the broad support that the regime commands amongst the Eritrean Diaspora.

It is both historical irony and paradox, that people who live comfortably in the democracies of the West, with no threat to their civil and human rights, have become alienated, both from the societies within which they live, and from traditional Eritrean cultural norms and values - of respect, tolerance, politeness, decent social behaviour, love of God – to such a degree that they have become party to the perpetuation of dictatorship, and to the deep and massive violation of human rights in Eritrea. 

As they eat, drink and dance until dawn to the rhythmic and  uplifting  Tigrinya “kudda” beats celebrating Eritrea’s Independence Day, the regime and its supporters intone the slogan “Victory to the Masses!“ But the people of Eritrea, who have hardly anything left to eat or to celebrate, have already lost the battle.

Why? Because this regime of former guerrilla fighters or “Tedagelti” has fallen prey to its own arrogance. It has forgotten that the exercise of  the gross violation of human rights, of arbitrary arrests, of the confiscation of land and property, of ethnic and religious persecution and oppression - in short, the exercise of repression in its myriad forms - can never lead to positive development.

With wishes of peace and prosperity.