Introduction: 

The UN troops have left the Ethio-Eritrean border and an uneasy peace reigns in the region. The two governments seem to have learned a valuable lesson and may have consciously decided not to take the failed route of war, again. This is a welcome development and thumbs up to all those who vigorously campaigned to stop another disastrous war. 

However, we should always remember this is not a real peace and could easily turn deadly. The relative peace we are having now is as a result of the growing realization that, this time, the war will be a fight to the end, with the potential to destabilize the region and beyond. What is at play is the kind of stalemate that has kept the two super powers (the former Soviet Union and United States) from annihilating each other. Call it survival or self preservation. 

Whatever the reason might be, this is a welcome development. In his most recent interview, PIA [President Isaias Afwerki] is boldly predicting--despite the border not being physically demarcated and Badime still being under the control of the Ethiopians—that Eritrea will not declare war on Ethiopia. Amazingly, he even went further and predicted Ethiopia will not attack Eritrea. Well! The Egyptians have a saying, "Mn Bu'ek, li’Bab al sema."  (From your mouth or lips, to the doors of heaven.) 

Beyond that, the enmity and the mistrust between the two leaders continue and we may witness the continuation of the war by other means. The current conflict in Somalia can be easily attributed to the quarrel between the two leaders. The numerous conflicts in Ethiopia may have their own ethnic, political and historical dynamics; however, without Eritrea's active moral and/or material support, it may not have reached the current level of urgency.  

Djibouti and Eritrea:  

While the world was busy trying to defuse a potential conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, another border conflict between Eritrea and Djibouti is brewing. The government of Djibouti is accusing Eritrea of aggression and is conducting a full blown diplomatic campaign, appealing to the AU, Arab League and the UN to intervene. 

What is baffling is the muted response of the Eritrean government. At first, it was complete silence. This was followed by a very short and dismissive response. Even the often outspoken minister of information, Mr. Ali Abdu, has gone missing.  

This is disturbing. Whatever the truth maybe, Eritrea can't hide behind a wall of silence. As they say, the cat is out of the bag and Djibouti is loudly accusing Eritrea of border infringement and asking the rest of the world to intervene. And unless this conflict is contained in time, it may devastate the region and may even draw countries like France, the US and Ethiopia into the conflict. 

The question now is: what went wrong? What has soured the relationship between the two countries? Until now, Djibouti was the only country that Eritrea had an uninterrupted diplomatic relationship with. Yes, there was that short-lived border conflict that both countries seem to have successfully resolved. Or was it a case of Eritrea or Djibouti bidding its time and is now revisiting--this and many other unresolved issues? 

As I have indicated in one of my previous articles, there was something wrong, something missing, in the seemingly cozy relationship between the two countries. Eritrea, which is often accused of being an easily-piqued and trigger-happy country, has shown a remarkable restraint when it comes to Djibouti; even though Djibouti was the sole beneficiary of Eritrea's self-inflicted failings.  

Djibouti, of course, was not out to hurt Eritrea intentionally. Djibouti benefited because of its geographical proximity to Eritrea and because of the numerous diplomatic, political and military missteps of PIA and his government. Djibouti, a city state equally divided between the Afars and Issas, has become a beacon of hope in the region and, naturally, it has become a hub for all kinds of activities. 

Causes For Tension  

Here are some issues that I raised in one of my previous articles--issues that may have the potential to create a rift between the two countries. 

1. Despite its size and its inhospitable climate, Djibouti has successfully wooed the US to establish a base in the country. And this, despite Eritrea's long and hard lobbying, to the tune of millions of dollars. This was a big blow to Eritrea, in terms of investment opportunities lost and, most importantly, the security guarantee that comes along with it. By now, I believe, the border issue would have been resolved long time ago. 

2. With Ethiopia routing all its import and export business via Djibouti, Eritrea has lost hundreds of millions of dollars in annual revenue. This revenue is non-recoverable and the future does not seem promising, either. Even if the relationship between Eritrea and Ethiopia improves and Ethiopia starts using the ports of Assab and Massawa, the competition between Eritrea, Djibouti and the other neighboring ports is going to be tough.  

In the fight for Ethiopia's business, Djibouti is already way ahead and is making sure it stays that way by expanding its port services and investing and hiring the best management service money can buy. 

This rivalry between the two countries can easily deteriorate into an open-ended disagreement. And in a poor region like ours, misunderstanding of dollar and cents could easily translate into war and confrontation. 

3. In the past ten years alone, the UN and other humanitarian organizations have spent millions of dollars in an effort to expand and improve the port of Djibouti in a bid to reach the millions that were affected by drought in Ethiopia. This was money that was slated towards the improvement of the port of Assab, which was the port mostly utilized by the UN and its agencies. 

4. Djibouti was and is the conduit of all the arms purchased by Ethiopia in its continuing war with Eritrea. 

5. Recently, the relationship between Eritrea and Djibouti has started to sour as the two countries started to entertain divergent views concerning Somalia and other regional issues.  

6. Djibouti's relationship with France and the US, and the increased military activities along the Red Sea and possibility the border, may have unnerved the government of Eritrea. I am sure the US, France and their allies are watching closely, by sea and by air, the activities of some of the rebel groups, especially those the US considers as terrorists. 

Escalation: Why Now? 

Why the escalation, now? The reason behind the recent escalation is not fully known. Djibouti is saying Eritrea has crossed the border and has taken some land belonging to Djibouti. Eritrea is not saying a lot. 

1. For most pro-government elements, this is a case of déjà vu. This is another conspiracy by countries who harbor no good will towards Eritrea and its people. This is a conspiracy hatched by the US and its allies in the region and Djibouti is a pawn in the game. Others are dismissing the crisis as a non-issue and a fabrication. As far as they are concerned, this is simply being blown out of all proportion by the enemies of Eritrea. 

However, the undeniable fact is Djibouti is accusing Eritrea of aggression and is calling the international community to intervene. Djibouti is calling the AU, the UN and the Arab league to send representatives to visit the area and investigate the crises. Djibouti must have a case; otherwise, it will be a huge embarrassment and loss of face. 

2. There are some who believe this was a calculated move by the Eritrean army to prevent any future attack coming through that area. Eritrea may have sensed a threat and may have positioned its troops in a forward strategic position.  

3. This could also be a continuation of the unfinished war between Eritrea and Ethiopia. Another front, another war.  

4. Eritrea and Djibouti are in disagreement concerning the crisis in Somalia. Djibouti has decidedly taken Ethiopia's side and is busy mediating between the different factions. In fact, currently, there is a peace dialog going on, between the Somali government and some members of the opposition groups.  

Eritrea may have concluded that Djibouti is taking Ethiopia's side and is interfering on matters that has nothing to do with Djibouti. Hence, the border conflict could easily be a warning to Djibouti not to interfere in what Eritrea considers is its sphere of influence and an area of concern in its war with Ethiopia. 

5. Eritrea may be preparing for another confrontation with Ethiopia, and this might be a strategic move, to disrupt Ethiopia's flow of goods and services through the port of Djibouti. However far-fetched this thinking maybe, it has received some credibility by the recent statement attributed to PMMZ [Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.] PMMZ is assuring his citizens that Ethiopia will guarantee the security of the corridor linking Djibouti and Ethiopia. 

Conclusion:  

I believe all is not well along the Djibouti-Eritrea border. Something is definitely wrong and the only speculation is the magnitude of the problem. It could be a repetition of the previous conflict or a harbinger of a crisis in the making.  

This will be a huge and risky gamble for Eritrea. We have to remember a conflict between Eritrea and Djibouti will have a far-reaching implication and might even drag countries like France, the US and Ethiopia into the conflict.  

Whatever the situation is, many Eritreans are at a loss on what to make of the crisis and its timing. Many are of the opinion that even if Eritrea has a legitimate grievance against Djibouti, this is not the time to open another conflict while the country is still facing another open-ended confrontation with Ethiopia. 

And to add an insult to an injury, the government of Eritrea has decided to keep the crisis under cover, hidden from the public, and has made a conscious decision not to counter the accusation by the government of Djibouti. 

For the life of me, I fail to see the wisdom behind this misguided policy. Even if the whole incident never happened and was a fabrication, the government should have defended itself vigorously and exposed the farce. However, it did none. Something is not right.  

Silence could be easily interpreted as an admission of guilt. And if the country is in danger of another attack by those the government calls “the enemies of Eritrea”, it is its cardinal responsibly to prepare the people and expose the conspiracy. "Siq Merixna" [we have chosen silence] is not a policy.  

Eritrea does not need another border war. We have had enough death and destruction, to last us the coming hundred years. Above all, we need to know the truth. Catch phrases like, "Ewanu Aykonen" and "Siq Merixna" are not policies. It is time for openness and vigorous diplomacy. It is time to treat the people as stake-holders with full rights and obligations. 

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