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The Eritrean Strongman, Mr. Isaias Afewerki has long pinned his political fortune solely on one thing: a face-saving end to his lingering dispute with Ethiopia. No foreign power can claim it is willing to help him score any victory. And the increasingly voiceless Eritrean people simply wish they were free. Still there are hopes for change.
The Eritrean leader has played his last ´threat´ card in yet another attempt to get the UN to come to his rescue. It is ironic that he is asking for UN help while at the same time humiliating the world body by kicking out its Peacekeeping Monitors from the buffer zone on his country´s side of a volatile border with Ethiopia. The Eritrean regime has cut off fuel supplies to the UN troops putting their lives in serious danger and effectively ending an already crippled peacekeeping program. Evidently, there can be no UN reward to a perceived blackmailing ploy even if this unprecedented Eritrean move would lead to yet another war. Nor is it likely that Ethiopia will be willing to honor the binding 2002 international border ruling under Eritrea´s coded threats of renewed hostilities. Mr. Afewerki is encouraged to keep preaching about the sanctity of international law. But experts will hardly find him credible since he was the first to violate the law when he sent in tanks and troops into Ethiopia in May1998 - an act entered as illegal by a UN finding in 2005. International principles work only when applied by all sides in absolute terms. But as this is not always attainable, the Eritrean government could have resorted to intensive diplomatic activities instead of relying on the use or threat of force in resolving conflicts. Despite this, the Eritrean leader continues to take hostile steps that only serve to harden the hearts and minds of even the most sympathetic UN or Western diplomats. Nothing justifies the abuse of a vital UN peacekeeping mission whose sole aim, under the 2000 Algiers peace accord, was to keep the two warring armies apart and help prevent further carnage. The peacekeeping force was never mandated to enforce the subsequent border agreement of 2002 - binding or nonbinding. Mr. Afewerki´s defiant move at this juncture is hard to fathom. It could be out of desperation or a shrewd political calculation. Whatever he has in store under his sleeves, his action has deeply worried and infuriated the world body. The UN concern is not without reason. In addition to his military confrontation with Ethiopia, Mr. Afewerki has in the past attacked Sudan, Djibouti and Yemen. He has armed many of the Sudanese rebel movements challenging the central government in Khartoum. He has provided financial and military support to practically all of the armed movements in Somalia and Ethiopia in his bid to destabilize the region and weaken the Ethiopian government. The Eritrean leader has also been charged by the US and UN with "harboring terrorists with links to Al-Qaeda". US reaction to President Afewerki´s offensive treatment of the UN Peacekeeping force is bound to be more firm and unyielding, though cautious. The US is already deeply involved in Sudanese, Somali and Kenyan troubles. Another attempt by Mr. Afewerki to reclaim Badme by force is unlikely but may not be ruled out entirely. . RUTHLESS DICTATORSHIP: President Afewerik´s current hard-line moves are reminiscent of his arrogant stance in May 1998 when he ordered the occupation of the disputed Ethiopian administered border town of Badme. At the time, US, African Union and EU leaders pleaded with Mr. Afewerki for months urging him to pull his troops out and engage in negotiations instead of continuing with a senseless confrontation. It was clear to everyone except Mr. Afewerki that the alternative to negotiations with Ethiopia was likely to be most ghastly. . His determination to impose his arrogant will on the volatile situation cost the young Eritrean nation the lives of tens of thousands of dead and wounded soldiers and civilians. Despite his infamous slogan at the time of "might is right", he was forced to vacate his troops from Badme - a result which could have been achieved honorably without a single drop of blood had Mr. Afewerki heeded very loud international appeals. . Dictators are never afraid of wars as long as it is somebody else´s blood on the line. The Eritrean Strongman sounds more like Dictator Sadam Hussien in that regard. The enigmatic Eritrean leader has been a dictator right from the start even before the country´s liberation in 1991. His ruthless methods became more evident when, in September 2001, he incarcerated most of his cabinet members for whispering in his ears about the need to employ more diplomacy and constructive engagement in dealing with the border dispute. . The officials were risking the possibility of being called traitors for expressing concern over the way the war was carried out. They were falsely charged with treason as scapegoat for Mr. Afewerki´s failures as head of government and commander-in-chief. These comrades-in-arms who had fought on Mr. Afewerki´s side for over 30 years during the independence struggle, remain locked up in undisclosed locations without any contact with the outside world. . Critics believe Mr. Afewerki used, if not planned, the senseless war with Ethiopia in 1998 as a means of stifling the people´s demand for human rights, justice and democratic governance. . A new constitution guaranteeing these and other inalienable rights was due to come into effect in that same year. For over 10 years now, the Eritrean Strongman has refused to implement that democratic constitution for which tens of thousands of Eritreans sacrificed their lives. . THE OPPOSITION: Steadily but surely the future of Eritrea is shifting to the promising hands of a new, forward looking opposition. "The US or Ethiopia will be ill-advised to take any action against the Eritrean regime without the full and detailed knowledge and participation of the Eritrean opposition," adamantly stresses Mr. Mesfin Hagos, a prominent Eritrean leader in exile and once defense minister in President Afewerki´s cabinet. . In an interview with this writer at the weekend in Oakland, California, Mr. Hagos, a respected Eritrean war hero added that as a united force, the Eritrean opposition was ready to enter into unconditional talks with Ethiopia to discuss the details of demarcating their common border and any other topics of mutual interest, without compromising Eritrea´s national sovereignty. . The former Defense Minister expressed his vision for a "bright Ethio-Eritrean relationship as booming future partners, working shoulder to shoulder together in fostering dynamic trade, economic, and cultural ventures." . Experts point to the urgent need to build more trust with the ruling EPRDF party as the first Ethiopian government to recognize Eritrea´s right to self determination and eventual independence. . The Eritrean opposition forces - now lumped together under the umbrella organization of the Eritrean Democratic Alliance, EDA - should also take more confidence building steps in promoting friendship with Ethiopian opposition parties including those who still question the existence of a sovereign Eritrean state. . The opposition is also said to be moving towards embracing within its ranks young Eritrean leaders. Eritrea´s youth is the most abused with nothing to aim for except to protect a corrupt, barbaric system. Women representation in the opposition should also be given its deserved prominence. Eritrean Women, young and old, continue to suffer from the worst form of relentless exploitation and oppression under what has been described by many as the most sadistic and amoral dictatorship the people have ever experienced. IN SUM: Change can, and will happen. History demands it must happen sooner than later. The opposition is faced with two major tasks: One: to make the people become fully aware that CHANGE is needed. And two: to bring about that CHANGE. A free, happy, caring, prosperous Eritrea is never beyond reach. . This revolution must first be fought and won in the minds of the people. It needs no bullets. And no ballots are needed yet this time. The dictatorship has long ruled them out any way. If arms are needed, there are already enough in the hands of the three-hundred thousand eager young Eritrean soldiers along with their commanding officers ready to point their guns in no time at the masters of servitude and oppression. But there will be no need for any more bloodshed. . Only pointing the guns in the right direction will scare off the greedy and corrupt tyrants in order for the people to live freely and happily ever after. But like most of us, our young men and women in uniform should fight and win that revolution in their minds first. . The ´new´ unified Eritrean opposition should realize that real power that effects revolutionary change is all about living and fighting for the right ideas, and weapons are most powerless in the hands of an ideologically bankrupt dictator. The opposition, as a new, dynamic political force, should not only be prepared to lead the people but also work with the US, Europe and all other forces opposed to terror and dictatorship in bringing about the urgently needed change in Eritrea. |
