In the Massawa meeting President Isaias Afwerki held with his senior officials in mid-November, he forecasted that the odds of war breaking out between Eritrea and Ethiopia were less than 10%. But he spent most of his time talking about war scenarios and “conspiracies” woven by “some quarters” that his senior officials have interpreted his speech to mean there is a 90% chance of war. 

The Eritrean government is sending mixed messages, with the president downplaying odds of war and castigating those who exaggerate the odds, and his deputies highlighting war and warning against complacence.  

Top Down Messaging

Following on the Massawa meeting, a ‘hizbawi mekete’ (popular resistance) was scheduled inside and outside Eritrea. Inside Eritrea, the co-ordinators are Messrs Yemane Gebreab, Alamin Mohammed Said and Hagos “Kisha” Gebrehiwet--the ruling party’s Political Director, Secretary, and Finance Director respectively.  They have chaired a series of meetings of military and civilian cadres mainly at the Expo. Subsequently, the military and civilian cadres, as well as the Zoba (region) and department heads, have been chairing their own meetings with their subordinates and ordinary citizens.

The opening statements of the “seminar” focused on the “objective situation on the ground”:

1. US Threat To Place Eritrea on The State Sponsor Of Terror List:   “America is planning to list our peace-loving nation as a sponsor of terrorism. This means, in other words, that there should be a change of regime which in turn means pushing the Woyane to launch a war and remove our government. In such a situation, we should be prepared for any eventuality. The regime in Ethiopia is on war-footing and we should be prepared. It is likely that the enemy will try to attack us. Therefore, we should solidify our unity as usual. If the enemy does not attack, there will, nevertheless, still be war because we have to attack since we cannot go on in a no-war no-peace situation forever. It should not escape our notice that Ethiopia is not as powerful as it was years back.”

2. Regional politics: “We are always bitterly criticized and castigated by our enemies as well as friends that we are meddling in external affairs while our house is in shambles. Even some of our own people say ‘TsebHiKum enaharere Tsahli endamatkum mkwas ghidefuwo.’  [Don’t stir strangers’ pots while your own pot is burning.]  But we consider the so-called external factor as part and parcel of our internal situation.”

3. Economic Situation: “Our economy is deteriorating because we are not producing enough. We are importing wheat flour worth USD 140 million and petroleum products 50% of that. Therefore, our only option is to tighten our belts now, and in the future.”

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The presentation was followed by a “Q&A” session.  A sample of the questions and answers:  

Q. The economic plight of the people. What is the government doing to address the shortage of bread, cooking gas, etc?

A. We have repeatedly described the cause, most of which is outside the control of the people and government of Eritrea. There will be more belt-tightening.  This is how we have met previous challenges and this is how we will meet future challenges.  The most important thing which we have is the unity of the people.

Q. Corruption and nepotism are rampant.  What is the government doing about it?

A. We are fighting corruption and we intend to intensify our campaign against corruption in 2008.

Q. Detention without trial and especially by the military officers. Colonels and Generals are detaining people and dumping innocent people for personal grudges. Bhadera yitsnahaley enabelka nentsuhat zegatat mi’esar beziHu.

A.  We will try our best to prevent this practice of detaining of people for personal grudges.

Q. Why doesn’t the government import oil from neighboring countries instead from the Gulf area which is far?

A. We are importing benzene from the Sudan but Sudan doesn’t have enough gasoline. As a result we are obliged to import from the gulf.

Q. While the majority of fighters are suffering from lack of shelter, those in high places are fighting among themselves to grab villas.  Where is the fairness in this?

A. The allocation of houses is a chronic problem that was not handled efficiently.  We are doing everything in our power to alleviate this problem.

Q. What can you tell us about the attempt on Simon Gebredengel’s life?

A. The responsible people are under detention and some were killed in a shootout. The final result will be disclosed when the police finish their job.

Q. We are saying unity but there is no credible unity since there are so many signs that show our unity is not as before.

A. The government has done everything to solidify the unity of the people and it is only the opposition that is not united with us and against the enemy.

Life Outside Expo Seminars

Acting on its belief that war with Ethiopia is very likely, the government has imported tanks which were unloaded in the port of Assab.

The call on “tightening of the belt” seems to be her for a long time.  There is no gasoline and public transportation has become more difficult. The number of public buses serving Asmara has been cut by 50% and traveling to the Zobas has become very difficult.  

Frequently, petrol dealers are ordered to shut down, and there are always rumors that “a tanker will arrive in Massawa the next two three days.”

There is still shortage of wheat flour. Even large bakeries that mostly served foreigners and wealthy Eritreans have been affected.  In some neighborhoods of Asmara, the bread quota is two pieces a day.

The aghelghilot (national service conscripts) in Wia camp are dying from diseases. As is the custom, families are not officially told of the death of their loved ones for months—some go through their grieving after they hear about it from “unofficial” channels.

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