War To "Preserve The Peace" :A prolific Eritrean writer bemoans "so called 'Horn experts' and 'analysts'" who "are once again engaged in their favorite pastime, pushing for war in the region, as if the lives of Africans were dispensable." Noble words, but before you say "well said", the writer is our highly-decorated Internet warrior, Sophia Tesmariam and you know there is a spoiler and wait, wait for it...here it comes: "At this juncture, I see only 3 options for moving forward and preserving the peace..." And if the first two options fail? Eritrea will have no choice but to exercise the undesirable option of its inherent legal right to self defense."  The outcome of "war" and "self defense" is the same devastation, and the argument that war preserves the peace is always contradictory but, according to Sophia, it is only those "parties that are encouraging [Ethiopia's] belligerence [who] will bear full responsibility for the consequences." How? In the mind of the Internet Warrior, who and how many died and who and how many were maimed is less important than a 100 page document that will be eventually written blaming all the devastation on Ethiopia, the UN, the US, etc.  The tangible consequences of war are insignificant compared to the theoretical abstractions of who may be responsible for the consequences. As usual, Sophia has it backwards: the tangible consequences are always clear; as to who is responsible, it is never clear cut: it requires arguments, lawyers and parced words 

Will EEBC Move The November 30 Deadline?  Stratfor thinks so.  Although tensions will remain high, the EEBC's likely decision to opt for continued negotiations, coupled with Ethiopia's continuing preoccupation with fighting the Somalian insurgency, should keep a lid on the situation -- at least temporarily.  

Why We Are Where We Are.  Newsweek has a summary of why a senseless war may be followed by an insane war.  Eritrea has the law on her side; Ethiopia has the judge, the witnesses and the bailiff on her side. But not to worry, Eritrea has superior diplomacy, as Newsweek explains: "[Meles’s] sort of intransigence would normally trigger heavy criticism from Western powers. But fortunately for Zenawi, Afwerki played a clumsy diplomatic hand. After the September 11 attacks, Zenawi became a key Washington ally, allowing the U.S. to interrogate terror suspects in secret prisons and invading Somalia to oust an Islamist government last year. Meanwhile an increasingly defiant Afwerki was busy alienating potential allies and making his nation—once a favorite of the West—a pariah. Eritrea harassed U.N. peacekeeping teams sent to monitor the border, expelled foreign aid agencies, and arrested those working for foreign embassies in Asmara. It cracked down on religious minorities and political dissidents and gave succor not only to Ethiopian rebels but those from neighboring Somalia and Sudan, as well. Eritrea's coziness with Somali Islamists linked to Al Qaeda led the U.S. earlier this year to threaten to place the country on the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism."

ICG Revises Its Forecast: On November 5, the International Crisis Group (ICG) issued a report warning that the “risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their war in the next several weeks is very real.”  Now the revision: “The deterioration of the situation, related to the coming vacuum in the peace process, could lead indeed to confrontation, but the signs we're getting over the last two weeks are toward a continuation of the standoff rather than escalation."  And now for the clues for why the original report should have been doubted.

Isaias Embraces Sophistry And Models He Rejected 21 Years Ago: Asena has an interview that Isaias Afwerki gave to three individuals in 1986. Back then, he wasn’t a fan of Muammar Qaddaffi: “It's a kind of sickness, like Qaddaffi's desire to create Arab unity from the Atlantic to the Middle East.  Would a sensible man have that type of program?”  Now Isaias is Qaddaffi’s best friend.  In 1986, he thought the claim that development must precede democracy to be a form of sophistry: “The logic is: before democracy development comes. It's not realistic. Development only comes by creating a democratic political atmosphere. It's putting the cart before the horse to say "development before democracy". But now, the sophistry has become the dictatorial regime’s official policy.

Wolf! Wolf! In with a bang, out with a whimper: The shepherds at Shabait.com started crying wolf and pressing the alarm button on October 26 when they announced that the Weyane and the Bushies were out to get Eritrea and that an attack on Eritrea was imminent—coming the first week of November, in fact. This cry was repeated on November 2^nd, and then on November 6 when French journalist was quoted for saying things that he categorically denied ever saying.  Undeterred, the shepherd was still crying wolf on November 8. Well, now, that the end of November is here, how does the shepherd recover from his false alarms? Lamely. Mission accomplished: nobody asked "who shot Colonel Simon?" for a whole month.  Now just wait another decade to find out the results of that "investigation."   

Shabait Offers A Grudging Acknowledgement: After years of pretending that all the micro-dams and potable water projects were the results of its mythical “self-reliance”, shabait.com has, through pursed lips, offered a grudging acknowledgement that there are “partners” involved in the projects. This acknowledgement is entirely unrelated to this.  At this rate, it will take Shabait.com a few more years to admit that the partners are foreign NGOs, and a few more years to learn which ones of the 14 NGOs operating in the “Tsorona sub zone” funded the project.  Unless Awate.com helps out the process by publishing its “who does what where” document long before that.

Somebody Forgot To Remind These War Veterans About "Hizbawi Mekete": "Things have changed, we are so tired of a pointless situation," said the fighter's companion, careful not to be overheard and asking not to be named. "People are suffering and the arguments must stop to find a solution to the border." It is a growing complaint in a tightly restricted country where the young are conscripted into mass national service, critics are silenced, military police prowl the streets, and where trade, industry and investment are choked by an austere war-time economy. Source

Jendayi Frazer vs PFDJ: Q.  Getting back to Eritrea.  There had been some discussion that the United States might actually list Eritrea as a state sponsor of terrorism.  It that still an active issue? A.  Yes it certainly is.  We are still deliberating it.  As I said many times before, we are putting together the case.  When we make a judgment we take it very seriously. VOA News

Citizen vs PFDJ: Citizen Wins: nharnet.com, ELF-RC's website reports: A brave Eritrean national, who sued in a court of law the Eritrean regime and its agent in Toronto, Canada, for illegal 2% “tax” and other fraudulent means of extracting money from citizens, has won the case and is now legally entitled to receive all money taken from him in addition to  6% annual interest of the illegally extracted money. The accuser is now legally entitled for refunding and compensation of well over $60,000. More

Counting Backwards (We Are # 2):  Those who love to congratulate the Eritrean regime for a “job well done!” and “you are on the right track!” have one more reason to congratulate it: the inflation rate in Eritrea is 25.6%, the second highest in the world. This kind of encouragement can help Eritrea to beat #1, Zimbabwe, whose inflation rate is 137,831%. IMF (PDF File)

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) congratulates Eritrea/Ethiopia for agreeing to do what they haven’t done (respectively: restoring the sanctity of the TSZ/unconditional demarcation); reminds them that it is their responsibility to do that anyway (which they won't do); and passes the buck to the UNSG (whose envoy will be ignored.) Deja vu. Source (pdf)  

Comboni Nuns Threat To Eritrea's "National Security":  We can't wait for Girma Asmerom to be interviewed on the expulsion of 13 missionaries from Eritrea; he would probably say they were not expelled; they are vacationing.  Meanwhile: The expulsion, our sources say, is part of a wider plot by the Maoist dictatorship of President Isaias Afewerki to destroy the Catholic Church in the Horn of Africa nation. The missionary news agency MISNA reports that the expulsion order was issued to four Comboni fathers (2 Mexicans, a Filipino and a Kenyan), 2 Comboni sisters, 2 Pavonian fathers, 2 Filipino Pius Teachers, 2 nuns of an unspecified congregation and a lay missionary. The lay missionary, an Italian national, was a volunteer working as secretary for the Bishop of Barentu, south-west of Eritrea. Two of the 13 missionaries, a Comboni father and sister, are already outside of Eritrea, but for personal reasons, according to MISNA. Source: CISA

You Can’t Spell Predicament Without P.R.I.D.E:  Of all possible explanations for why un-accountable and authoritarian regimes do what they do, pride is at the top of th list.  Take Ethiopia's invasion and occupation of Somalia which was partly driven by Pride: “how dare these people threaten Ethiopia? Don’t they know who we are?”  And now? Ethiopia is discovering, as the U.S. has in Iraq, that invasion and occupation are two different things. It is stuck fast in its own East African quagmire, reluctant to stay yet unable to withdraw. (Warning: gruesome picture included in Time’s article)

Aweys The Braveheart Fighting Ethiopian Occupation…From Asmara:  He fled Somalia after declaring "jihad" on Ethiopia last year and now resides in Asmara, the capital of Eritrea. Hundreds of young men died last December fighting Aweys' "jihad," which ultimately led to humiliating defeat for the Islamic Courts militia. more

Eritrean Prisoners Escape from Track B: Adoulis reports that in mid-September 13 Eritreans escaped from Track B, where “extreme brutality and torture” is administered by the officer in charge, Colonel Berhane.   Torture includes “shackling [prisoners] in the form of number (8) or in the form of helicopter for consecutive days.” Asena estimates that there are 2000 prisoners at Track B, which has underground cells and metal containers. Source 

Tortured To Death At Wi'a:  Nigisti Haile and Mogos Solomon were tortured to death at Wia for refusing to recant their faith.  Source.

US Urges Restraint.  The State Department is calling on Eritrea and Ethiopia to show restraint, respect the peace agreement they signed; to “engage directly to address issues dividing them” and to “fully embrace” the UNSG’s proposal.  Coming Soon: A Shabait response attacking US of coddling Ethiopia.

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Wolf! Wolf! Part 4: yawn.

No Plans, But…    Ethiopia’s Minister of Information explains that his country has no plans to attack Eritrea but… "If at all there existed anything new and any military movements around the Eritrea-Ethiopian border, it will be only the Eritrean government which shall be the cause of the problem and which shall take full responsibility."

How To Create A Popular Uprising: From VOA: Mogadishu residents say for the first several months, the insurgency was not a popular uprising. Several hundred Islamists formed the core of the insurgency, including al-Qaida-trained militants opposed to Ethiopia, the United States and the secular interim government they support.

But public anger toward the Ethiopian presence in Somalia is said to be growing, stemming from allegations that Ethiopian troops are committing human rights violations, including murder and rape, against Somali civilians.

Diagnosing CPA:  Sudan’s 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which ended the North-South civil war is…well, we don’t know what shape it is in.  And after you read this report, we doubt you will either.

Enter The Twilight Zone: The Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) between Eritrea and Ethiopia has not been temporary, nor secure, for a long time. Isaias says, “make sure it is temporary and we will make sure it is secure!” and Meles says, “make sure it is secure before we can even discuss whether it is temporary or permanent.” Thus the Twilight Zone.  The UN Secretary General issues a quarterly report on the status of the TSZ and Isaias always comes out looking bad which frustrates him even more, which results in a worse report. Grounded helicopters, limitation on movement of UNMEE officers, expelling UNMEE officials from certain nationalities...and so on.  Meanwhile, Meles always manages to push things to their limit, and then pull back in time for the issuance of the reports which invariably conclude with: "For its part, Ethiopia has lifted all restrictions it had previously imposed on the Mission." Read the November 1 report here    

Wolf! Wolf! Part 3:  Shabait.com, quoting Le Monde’s Jean-Philippe Remy, announced (for the third time) that Ethiopia, with the help of the United States, will “soon declare war against Eritrea.” Shabait.com does not indicate when or where Remy “said” what he is being quoted of saying.  Remy has written reports for Le Monde in April 2007 about the looting carried out by TFG, the looming Somalia insurgency and how Ethiopia’s counter-insurgency missions in Somalia could be classified as war crimes.  Meanwhile, the former ambassador to Ethiopia, David Shinn, tells Jimma Times that he doesn’t “believe it [war] will happen. There are important reasons in both Ethiopia and Eritrea why it is not in their interest to resume war.  In addition, the international community would condemn and, I suspect, strongly sanction whichever country initiated the attack.”  

The Minnesota Connection:  There are nearly 60,000 Somalis who live in Minnesota.  It is an assertive group that manages to make the headlines of America’s media.  One of the 60,000, Abdurahman Ali Osman, has recently announced that he would like to be considered for the vacancy of Somalia’s next Prime Minister and he is moving.  Source    

“Internal Political Calculations”: The Washington Post weighs in: Ethiopia…maintains an estimated 100,000 troops who have been carrying out large-scale training exercises in recent months. Ethiopia also has been building up its air force and jamming Eritrean radar, according to a U.S. government source, who speculated that Ethiopia may strike by air in the Eritrean capital, Asmara, hoping to topple the government there…. Analysts say the dispute is more about the internal political calculations of two political elites determined to remain in power.  

International Crisis Group:  Prestigious.  Influential.  These are words used to describe the think tank International Crisis Group (ICG.) So when the ICG warns, as it just did, that war between Eritrea and Ethiopia could break out any time in the next several weeks, is it time to hit the panic button? Maybe.  But it is also true that every odd year since the EEBC ruling, (September 2003, December 2005, and now in November 2007), the ICG has been warning about a breakout of war between the two countries. Every odd year, they have recommended that a full and prompt implementation of the EEBC ruling is the key to avoiding war.  Every odd year, they have also made recommendations that were supposed to make this likely.  In 2003: “negotiating parallel initiatives with the help of the U.S., AU and EU…” to fashion a humanitarian approach to settlements and relocations. In 2005:  a “3-Ds” formula of concurrent de-escalation, demarcation and dialogue… In 2007:  incentives (primarily economic) and disincentives (credible sanctions) that would likely be required to obtain cooperation in de-escalating the situation.  Where are the Eritrean and Ethiopian think tanks who will persuade their governments to compromise?

Can’t Trust The Wolf; Can’t Believe The Shepherd: In less than a week, our shepherd, Shabait.com, has made two wolf cries: Defecting Ethiopian soldiers who arrived in Eritrea recently disclosed that the regime is preparing to launch another war against Eritrea. They also pointed out that the regime is conducting secrete [sic] meetings for Tigrayan Army commanders on the preparations for the war.  Meanwhile, the wolf, (100,000 of them in forward position), said he has lost his appetite for sheep and is now a vegetarian: Ethiopia has taken this firm position of settling the boarder stalemate through dialogue and negotiation in a bid to achieve in its endeavors of fighting poverty and backwardness…  

Somalia Has Its Own Badme:  The semi-autonomous Puntland and the breakaway Republic of Somaliland, both provinces within the failed state of Somalia, are fighting over Las Anod (or Laascaanood.) On October 15, 2007, a conflict among the Dulbahante clan on either side of the “border” expanded to warfare when regular Somaliland army joined the fight and took control of the town (population: 100,000), which had been administered by Puntland since 2003.  This has now become a big political issue in Puntland and the regional administration has been given an ultimatum to capture the town within one month.  Wow.

Eritrean Regime Caught In A Lie (Again):  Awate broke the story of the arrest of Aklilu Solomon, a VOA Stringer, on July 12, 2003.  He was arrested for the crime of reporting (listen to the audio of his report, archived by Asmarino here) that “parents and families were seen expressing grief that had been building up for years by wailing and crying when they heard of the death of their children” which contradicted the state media’s claim that parents “ululated” when officially informed of the death of their children.  After his arrest, the regime claimed he was not arrested at all: he was “picked up because he had not served the obligatory 18 months of national service in the army.”  Aklilu Solomon, who has managed to escape to Shimelba, Ethiopia exposes the lie to VOA: he was “confined in a metal shipping container…[then]placed under house arrest until his release in June last year.