For whatever reason, the Eritrean regime which, for months, had been downplaying any possibility of a conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, has been crying wolf non-stop for two weeks now.   

We have already mentioned why we think the ICG report is not entirely reliable.  If, as we think, ICG's report was written by Andeberhan Woldegiorgis, a high-ranking official in the Eritrean regime who has a history of exaggerating the risks of war and a history of participating in the suppression of the Eritrean people’s call for human rights and democracy by fabricating bogeymen, then the ICG report is really no more reliable than an article that appears at the Eritrean regime’s websites.  The ICG has, knowingly or unknowingly, damaged its reputation.  

Beyond the ICG report, some may have been persuaded by the claims that defecting Ethiopian soldiers are disclosing that Ethiopia is making preparations for war.  Those who follow the issue closely have, no doubt, noted that defecting Ethiopian soldiers always seem to amplify whatever the Eritrean regime’s prevailing obsession is on the date they defected. In the past, those who defected supposedly did so to protest the discriminatory policies of the generals; to protest against stolen elections in 2005 and to protest the alleged mechanized American army presence in Somalia. Thus, the latest claims should be seen within this context--until they are verified by independent sources such as the ICRC.

The third story, now confirmed to be fictitious, is the supposed statement of Le Monde reporter, Jean-Phillipe Remy. On November 6, 2007, the website of Eritrea’s Ministry of Information, shabait.com, made the following claim: 

The TPLF regime will soon declare war against Eritrea under the blessing of the United States Administration, Mr. Jean-Philippe Remy; a Nairobi stationed French Le Monde reporter with expertise in foreign relations said, quoting a top ranking U.S intelligence official assigned in Africa. 

The source also confirmed that the U.S administration is securing all the ground work and mechanisms to replace the TPLF army in Somalia with another African force so as to enable the regime to immediately withdraw its forces, and thereby avoid getting engaged along two fronts.  

Mr. Jean-Philippe Remy is a renowned reporter that has been writing reliable stories on actual events that took place in Somalia. 

Jean-Phillipe Remy has written several articles on Somalia for Le Monde.  His most recent article, the one that is presumably the source for Shabait.com’s claim, is available at http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-3212,36-973890,0.html?xtor=RSS-3210. The relevant portion of the article, which is in French, is the concluding paragraph where the author speculates on what would happen if (not when) there is a war between Eritrea and Ethiopia: 

This could [emphasis added] cause the collapse of the peace process and a return to war between Ethiopia, supported by the United States, and Eritrea, identified by Washington as the main support for insurgents in Mogadishu. 

This is a far cry from “The TPLF regime will soon [emphais added] declare war against Eritrea under the blessing of the United States Administration.” 

What if Shabait.com is not referring to the article above but to conversations Jean-Phillipe Remy may have had with others that it is privvy to? Gedab News has no direct contact with Mr. Jean-Phillipe Remy, but it maintains contact with his colleagues at Le Monde.  We asked them to verify the information put out by shabait.com.  According to our sources, Mr. Jean-Philippe Remy “categorically denies saying or writing what Shabait is claiming he said or wrote.”   

Beyond the regime’s blatant misreading of his articles, there is also the unintended self-damnation.  If, as Shabait claims, Jean-Phillipe Remy “has been writing reliable stories on actual events that took place in Somalia”, should we not also rely on what he said about the Eritrean regime’s role in Somalia in the article referenced above?  

As UN investigations have shown, confirmed by the information from several intelligence services, Eritrea plays a central role in the supply of equipment, and even financing. [emphasis added]

And how does one reconcile this report with the regime’s oft-repeated and categorical denials that it supplies equipment and financing to the Somali Islamists?

The point here is not to downplay the risks of war which will always remain high as long as war is not ruled out as an option.  Rather, it is to expose the hands of the Eritrean regime and its sympathisizers in inflaming the environment whereby war becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.