Four Winds October 2007

ELF-RC Visits Shimelba, Tigray:  ELF-RC, an Eritrean opposition group which has often highlighted the miserable living conditions of the tens of thousands of Eritrean refugees in Sudan, recently visited (pdf) Eritrean refugees in Shimelba, Ethiopia (See also Newsweek International report below.)  While in the neighborhood, it met with officials of US Embassy to Ethiopia in Addis Abeba; as well as the President of the State of Tigray (pdf).  It also met with its military units (pdf) at the “Martyr Hassen Johar Station.” None of this has been received favorably by the apologists of the ruling regime who would like to forget the existence of political refugees, who do not want normalization between Eritrea and Ethiopia and, lastly, who claim there is no opposition, peaceful or armed, to PFDJ.
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Neie, Neie Telo: Come Quickly:  Newsweek International has an on-the-scene report about the living conditions of the 15,000 Eritrean refugees who are in a “permanent life of waiting” in Shimelba, Ethiopia. In October 2007 alone 700 Eritreans arrived, most of whom are escaping the never-ending military service, or are members of persecuted minority groups or the Kunama ethnic group.  Their living conditions: The United Nations provides each refugee with just over a pound of wheat a day, a bit of cooking oil, and a few other foodstuffs.  What they do: wait for things to change.  The report includes the story of Samson Afwerki, who is one of the refugees: “A successful singer in Asmara before fleeing to Ethiopia, Afewarkei sits on a stool in a Shimelba tea shop singing a few bars of "Niei Tello" ("Please Come Quickly"), a political song that drew the ire of the Eritrean government.

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Rare, Good News For Eritreans: I have just received news from our brothers at Misrata prison in Libya that UNHCR has started to resettle them in different countries. So far 39 Eritreans have being released and put in hotels ready to be resettled in Italy. A further 15 are getting ready to be resettled in canada. I hope the rest get ther rest get this chance and get released from their detention. will keep u updated with the latest soon. regards Majnoon @ Awate Forums

Gedi Off To “Land Of Exiled African Politicians”: Somalia’s prime minister resigned on October 29.  The same day, the US State Department explained in a terse press release that “we understand…it was made in the spirit of continued dialogue and national reconciliation.” Also the same day, Ethiopia announced that it was “pleased” that the Somali president and his Prime Minister “have resolved their differences in a statesmanlike and peaceful manner.” Sounds like two disinterested nations making polite talk, except… “Somalia's prime minister resigned Monday amid pressure from neighboring powerhouse Ethiopia, faltering support from the United States and a power struggle with the Somali president who had appointed him,” according to the Washington Post which also tells its readers that Gedi is now in Kenya.

Crumbling In Darfur.  Cause and Effect. The Darfur issue will join the world's "unsolvable problems" unless one or all of the following contributing factors change: (1) Bashir is frustrated by his inability to get the US to ease its sanctions despite his meeting its pre-conditions: share intelligence on terrorism; sign the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (South Sudan), and the Darfur Peace Agreement.  He knows he has China on his side and he also knows the limits of how far America will go to enforce its will; (2) The Bush Administration is the only government in the world that has called the crisis in Darfur "genocide." The Bush Administration had also vowed it would never, unlike Clinton,  allow a Rwanda under its watch. Bush explains the inaction: after Iraq and Afghanistan, he cannot be seen to use American military against another Muslim country;  (3) The proliferation of Darfur rebels: the rebels are now counted by the dozens, even the Janjaweed have split into two and are shooting each other.  This  means that each group is “strong enough to say no, but not strong enough to say yes” explains Alex De Waal (4) “The spoilers”--Eritrea, Chad and Libya—suspect that a UN/US military force has nothing to do with resolving the crisis but it actually is a Trojan Horse for the US to get a permanent foothold in the region.  They are set on frustrating any deal.  Africa’s Kissinger says: “African problems are tribal and we should not internationalise them, every time we give them an international touch we really put oil on the fire there.” (5) The Arab League (which should be renamed the League of Arab Leaders) supports Bashir--unconditionally.  (6) The Organization of Islamic Conference emphasizes its “full solidarity with the Republic of the Sudan”, which is another way of saying, “we support Bashir, unconditionally.” (7) Europe is, as usual, absent; (8) AU is, as usual, impotent.   

Somalia Won’t Have Gedi To Kick Around Anymore… The LA Times: “Somalia's beleaguered prime minister, Ali Mohammed Gedi, resigned Monday after weeks of mounting tensions inside the Horn of Africa country's transitional government and a power struggle with the president. Gedi's departure could open the door for a political breakthrough among Somalia's warring clans, but some experts said it might also lead to an unraveling of the fragile U.N.-recognized government.” Awate Comment:  You can tell a lot about a country when its leader’s accomplishments are not counted by the number of peace deals and reconciliation efforts initiated and implemented; hospitals and schools built or living standards improved, but by the number of assassination attempts the leader survived.

All That Glitters Is Gold.  There is also copper and zinc: Nevsun expects the mine to yield around 1 million ounces of gold, 747 million pounds of copper, and 1.1 billion pounds of zinc over its 10-year life. Nevsun is a Canadian mining company and the precious metals it expects to mine, and for which it entered into an off-again, on-again agreement with the Eritrean dictatorship, are found in Bisha, Eritrea.  Nevsun expects to start shipment in “2010 or later.”  If the Eritrean dictator, whose party will have a 40% stake in the mine, can survive to “2010 or later”, this is a golden opportunity for his bid to be president-for-life (and the life-after, by naming his successor.)  If we are lucky, it will be his golden parachute carrying him to his golden years…

Here come the war drums, ready the trumpets: Eritrea claims: “Intelligence agencies ... say that (Ethiopia) is intending to launch an invasion against Eritrea in the first week of November 2007 with the blessing of the U.S. Administration," the statement said. It did not provide any evidence, but it said Ethiopia would prepare by withdrawing troops it has deployed in neighbouring Somalia to avoid "getting engaged along two fronts".  Ethiopia responds: "The allegation is absurd and a nonsense fabrication. Ethiopia does not anticipate to go to war with Eritrea. Ethiopia is still pursuing its principle to resolve the border impasse with Eritrea through peaceful dialogue." Both governments have a history of making up stuff as they go along; the Eritrean dictator seems to have been more careless with his story this time: America is going to send an army to Somalia from another African country in one week?  Outside Eritrea and Ethiopia, which have committed to sending their soldiers to Chad and Sudan respectively, there are no countries in Africa that can just send their armed forces without debating it for months…

Does This Mean Rumors of Yemane Gebreab In the US Are Not True? Congressman Donald Payne, D-NJ, (although some Ethiopians think it is D-Eritrea) asked Secretary Rice what her administration is doing about: the unraveling of Sudan’s CPA; Ethiopia’s failure to comply with EEBC; the death of 193 Ethiopians in the 2005 Ethiopian elections; and bringing along the ICU to Somalia. Rice: We are very concerned about the behavior of the north, about Khartoum, in dealing with southern Sudan about, obviously, their behavior in Darfur and eastern Sudan. But their behavior in the CPA has also not been good….On Eritrea/Ethiopia, yes, we do encourage and urge the acceptance of the U.N. effort there. It has been difficult to talk to Eritrea, frankly. We've had trouble getting them to talk to us. And I sent our assistant secretary to talk with Mr. Isaias, and he didn't see her. So while we are saying to the Ethiopians that certain things need to be done, it would be very helpful if the Eritreans would show a little bit more interest in what the United States has to say. As you know, there are some people who are in Somalia that we really believe have strong Al Qaida ties, and, obviously, they need to be kept as far away from any further government there.  But, yes, we are working very closely. I don't think there's any doubt that the Ethiopians don't want to stay in Somalia. And one of the things that we're trying to do is to work with the African Union to get that security force, the peacekeeping force, ready for Somalia. The Washington Post has the entire transcript.    

30 Swedish Newspapers Urge Sweden To Do More To Release Dawit Isaac:  Dawit has Swedish and Eritrean nationality.  His Swedish compatriots are lobbying their government to do everything in its power to get him released from Eritrea’s dungeons. His Eritrean compatriots either do not raise his case or, when they do, they write totally irresponsible articles implying he was a spy who deserves what he got.  Here’s a sample from PFDJ’s Fenj-regach accusing Dawit, without any evidence at all, of being one of the “defectors and informants”, and “mouthpieces for forces that sought to destabilize Eritrea in time of war.” 

The Dictator Gives His Generals Time Off (Or Time Out): If you check here, and here, and here,  you will notice that the government of Eritrea, such as it is, is made up of the “ministerial cabinet,”  the “regional administrations” and the “zone commanders.”  These are the troika that replaced the politbureau, the central committee and the national assembly of yesteryear.  Whenever it meets, all show up for the dictator's powerpoint presentation and they are televised mimicking his body language, like bit players in a silent movie. But not this time.  The ministerial cabinet and the regional administrators had a meeting without the zonal commanders.  And his dictatorship showed up only for the closing session.  Something is up.

“The Rain Has Stopped, So Blood May Flow Again in the Horn of Africa”, so wrote Karl Vick in the Washington Post, on November 3, 1999. (Archived by University of Vermont.)  And now, 8 years later, Shabait.com, using its trademark incoherent prose, is warning: TPLF regime to launch invasion against Eritrea in the first week of November 2007 with the blessing of US Administration, Intelligence agencies and individuals say…

Wouldn’t you know: all crimes in Eritrea are a form of treason: When the Eritrean regime is getting ready to arrest people en masse, it wages a media campaign against corruption and corrupt people.  When it wants to negate the rights of the accused and to discourage people from speaking up for the rights of the accused, it explains that the crime is not just immoral but a form of treason: “Although corruption is considered a moral offense by all societies, in Eritrea it is also a betrayal of our beloved martyrs and disrespects the nation forged by their blood…” Source.  But would the martyrs have approved a system where a dictatorship rules without any constraints to its power 16+ years after Eritrean independence? 

If a tree falls in a forest…  If Isaias leaves the country, and Shabait didn’t report it, did he leave the country? Shabait.com which features breathless reports on even the dullest itinerary of the dictator, had nothing to report about its favorite subject for a record 13 days. Between October 11 and October 23, Shabait took a break from its preferred idolatry even though there were reports in Libyan, American, Sudanese and Eritrean media outlets that he was out of the country and vacationing in Italy, meeting with the Brother Leader in Libya or scheduling to meet with South Sudan leaders on October 20, or October 21 or  being uninvited by Sudan, according to Sudan-government friendly media, because the Sudanese government does not see a role for external mediators in its dispute with SPLM.

The Shooting of Simon: the government edition:  Reuters reports on the Eritrean regime’s version of the story: An unknown number of assailants shot Simon for still-being-investigated reasons and, as a result, an undisclosed number of suspects have been arrested.  The government now has “full control of the situation.”  

EPDF: 25,000 armed personnel in the buffer zone: Sudan Tribune, quoting the Eritrean People Democratic Front (EPDF, an Eritrean opposition group headed by Tewelde Gebreselasse), reports:  Eritrea recently has deployed over 25000 troops toward Ethiopia border. “Eritrean 19 and 13 military division forces fully armed are deployed at the temporary security zone where UN peace keepers are deployed… The group further said the government of Eritrea has imposed curfew in Senafe town and around. ’’The curfew imposed since last week and which the group said lasts from dusk to down aimed to control its fleeing citizens to Ethiopia in the cover of darkness.” But this news does not appear in EPDF’s own website

Africa's Middle East on the terror-o-meter:  The Daily Telegraph says the the Horn of Africa is now, after Pakistan, the second biggest cause of concern to counter-terrorism experts in the UK.  And the bad boys of the horn are the same three: Aweys, Isaias and Meles. Whether UIC has links to Alqaeda or not,  it is clear that when "Mogadishu and the area of southern Somalia" came "under their control", the area "became a magnet for foreign terrorists. In the annals of Islamist propaganda, the UIC was praised for creating the only truly Muslim state in Africa."  Then, despite a worldwide travel ban, Aweys is in Asmara: "President Isaias Afewerki's regime in Asmara is now harbouring Aweys and other fugitives linked to terrorism." Finally, Ethiopia is exacerbating the situation by its occupation of Somalia: "Tom Porteous, from Human Rights Watch, said that Ethiopia's army had been guilty of 'war crimes' in Somalia, adding: 'I think that conduct will have a radicalising effect and it will play into the hands of the insurgents.'"  Not including its role in the Ogaden which radicalizes people, too. 

Mozambique's Joachim Chissano Wins Mo Award:   The ex-president of Mozambique, who joined the smallest Afican club in 2005 (heads of states who left their office alive, and without a mob chasing them) just won the Mo Award for African leadership.   The award was given in recognition of his governance, democratization of Mozambique, and his role in bringing to end the long-simmering civil war between FRELIMO and RENAMO, (which claimed the lives of a million people), and introducing an era of reconciliation.  He was also instrumental in the ceasefire declaration of the Ugandan army and the Lord's Resistance Army.  He also offered to help solve the crisis in Zimbabwe but the 83-year-old Mugabe, who has been at the helm of power for 27 years as Prime Minister and President, and is proud of his membership in the bigger African club (heads of states who are feared, despised by their people) rebuffed him.  Chissano will receive 500,000/yr for ten years, followed by 200,000/yr for life.  This gives us an idea: maybe Mo Ibrahim can have "Pre-emptive Mo Awards" where he bribes corrupt dictators to leave their people alone.  

The "Who Shot Simon?" Drama: EDP Edition:  Regarding the assassination attempt on Colonel Simon Gebredengel, there are two choices.  You can either wait for the PFDJ to "investigate" the matter and give you a report (which means you are still waiting for the government to implement the recommendations of its "national assembly" and share with the public the report it presented to the "national assembly" in 2002 and you haven't even wondered whatever happened to the report or the national assembly for that matter) or you don't believe there will ever be a report and you rely on the independent and opposition websites.  If you are in the second group, the Eritrean Democratic Party has this contribution to add to what's been reported at awate.com and asmarino.com (in a Tigirigna article, pdf): Already a person of interest in the death of Fikre [a young man who was fronting the business interests of the generals, particulalry Major General Teklai Habteselasse], the obnoxious Samson the civilian general, who is a close friend of General Wuchu in addition to being a close relative of the family of Isaias Afwerki (particularly his sister), was the major suspect in the shooting of Simon. Samson and three others—including Wuchu’s driver and body guard--were hunted down and spotted in the environs of Mai Mine.  Shots were exchanged and Samson was wounded and died. The others are in detention—as are many commissioned police officers.  The department of national security has brought forces from the Western lowlands who have cordoned off the city. Meanwhile, Isaias Afwerki is out of the country and he has left Major General Teklai Habteselasse, Philipos Weldeyohannes [two of Eritrea's four zonal commanders] and Tekle Manjos in charge of the country.

The Baidoa-Addis Abeba Express:  Relying on the impeccable logic of “a bad government is better than no government”, Garowe Online - Home, Prime Minister Gedi warns that efforts to unseat him could cause civil war in Somalia.  He says he won’t resign, and he won’t face government officials and his term ends in 2009.  October 17-19, Gedi meets with Ethiopian officials in Addis Abeba.  On his way there, he vows that he won’t resign…there are rumors that his trip to Addis is one way. October 19, in Addis Abeba, he has a press conference.  VOA:  In a brief meeting with reporters after two days of conversations with senior Ethiopian officials, Mr. Gedi indicated he would step down if he loses a vote of confidence in parliament that could come as early as next week. "Let us reach that point. A vote of confidence in parliament is a legal matter…"

The Brother Leader of the Great Republic meets the Great Leader of the Sisterly Republic.  In other words, Kaddaffi is hosting Isaias at his tent in Sirte this weekend...Asena-online is reporting that shortly after the assassination attempt on his national security director, the Great Leader, who has a habit of disappearing whenever Eritrea is in a crisis, surfaced in Italty with his son, on what Shabait calls a "working visit" but everyone recognizes as vacation. 

Victory By All Means & The Slippery Slope To War Crimes:  Last week The Independent had a heart-wrenching report on what it called “Ethiopia’s own Darfur.” This week, the Sunday Herald has a disturbing report on Ethiopia’s counter-insurgency campaign in the Ogaden: The ONLF launched its most daring assault in April. Having long complained about Ethiopia drilling for oil in the Ogaden, the organisation attacked a Chinese oil installation in Abole, a small town 75 miles from the regional capital, Jijiga, killing nine Chinese and 65 Ethiopians. It was that attack which sparked the fresh counter-insurgency, a fierce scorched earth policy that is attempting to starve the ONLF of the support it has within the region. It is a policy that aid agency officials and diplomats privately say mirrors that employed by the Sudanese government in Darfur. Ethiopian air force jets have bombed villages, with ground troops storming in afterwards, destroying what is left of the village and killing civilians.

Ho Chi Minh, Isaias Afwerki and… Velupillai Prabhakaran?  An expert tells Reuters why Sri Lanka cannot defeat the Tamil Tigers: "No way, you can't crush the Tigers," Chaliand told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of a counter-terrorism conference in Colombo at which he was a keynote speaker. "Technically speaking they are the most efficient movement at present in the world. Before them I've seen two others which were outstanding. The Vietnamese, and the EPLF from Eritrea -- they won. (The Tigers) are the third one," he added. "You don't crush those guys with the Sri Lankan army, which by the way is not the best in the world."

Isaias Afwerki heading west….to Sudan:  So much for the speculation: Sudanese Media Center (SMC) is reporting that Isaias Afwerki is scheduled to meet with Sudan’s president, Albashir, and his VP, Salva Kiir, on Sunday October 21, 2007 to discuss bilateral issues and the Sudanese peace talks. But, Asmarino's Bauza report of "Isaias Kab Hager Koblilu" was funny.  While it lasted.

Eritrea: Best place for tourists, worst place for natives: Helen Berhane has joined the record number of Eritrean youth streaming out of the country. Christian Today reports:  Almost a year after her release, former Eritrean prisoner, Helen Berhane, yesterday arrived in a European country where she has been granted asylum. Despite her ordeal in detention leaving her unable to walk without assistance, Ms Berhane and her sister managed to flee to Sudan in December 2006. She has maintained a low profile in Khartoum for the last 11 months, where she was later joined by her daughter. The Eritrean government has allegedly responded to this by publicly executing anyone found to be assisting in these escapes, including the man who facilitated the escape of Ms. Berhane’s daughter. Sources report that after execution the man’s body was placed in a sack and unceremoniously deposited in front of his parent’s home.  Meanwhile Lonely Planet’s Blue List 2008 has included Eritrea in its “must see” list. We are sure they are not talking about visiting Mai Serwa.

Adding To Eritrea’s Future Remittance Base: But in Israel there are also more than 1,000 other Sudanese refugees, along with 700 from Eritrea and 600 from the Ivory Coast, according to the UN.

Eritrea’s “Export-Based” Economy:  The PFDJ had always bragged that it would eventually develop an export-based economy; it turns out they were talking about exporting not services or products, but people.  Worldwide, migrants sent 301 billion back home in 2006. Diaspora/migrant Eritreans’ remittances to Eritrea in 2006 were $411 million USD, which translates to 37.9% of its GDP. (By contrast, exports account 2% of GDP and, yes, that is the lowest in the world.)  Eritrea’s remittance as % of GDP is ranked third highest in Africa after Guinea Bissau and Sao-Tome and Principe.   Somalia’s is probably the highest, but nobody knows Somalia’s GDP.  See Africa’s remittances map

Ethiopia’s partners & “real” partners: Jimma Times explains: While the U.S Senate Foreign Relations Committee is evaluating a bill to sanction the country, Ethiopia seems to be evaluating its relations with China, looking for stronger bilateral relations. Most recently, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi held critical meetings with Chinese delegations hoping to increase alliance with the economically and politically powerful country, which he labeled “Ethiopia’s real partner.” China has an indifferent foreign policy favored by all strongmen in the world: “Genocide? What Genocide?”

Dial M, N, O… For Murder:  There are so many ways to die in Mogadishu [including]…death by cell phone call.  "When the phone's screen says 'Private Number' most people don't answer," said Abdirahman Yusuf Sheik, a sleep-deprived journalist with Radio Shabelle who receives up to four phoned death threats a day. "It means someone is calling to assassinate you.”… "They say, 'The bullet is coming' or 'Kiss your children goodbye tonight,'" Ahmed said. "Then they hang up." An impoverished man named Abdul was told: "You will be asking for water soon" -- a Somali reference to the burning thirst that comes from being gut-shot. Chicago Tribune report 

It Is Not Genocide If The Perpetrator Is An Ally Of THE USA:  The Independent has a detailed report on Ethiopia’s own Darfur: According to accounts from refugees, Ethiopian troops are burning villages, raping women and killing civilians as part of a systematic campaign to drive them from their homes. They reported dozens of villages destroyed and accused the Ethiopian government of forcibly starving its own people by preventing food convoys reaching villages and destroying crops and livestock. A former Ethiopian soldier who defected from the army said how he had been ordered to burn villages and kill all their inhabitants. He said the Ethiopian air force would bomb a village before a unit of ground troops followed, firing indiscriminately at civilians. "Men, women, children – we killed them all," he said. "We were told we were fighting guerrillas – the ONLF," he said. "But we were killing farmers – they were not ONLF." And what happens to the Ogadenis when they migrate to Somalia to avoid Ethiopian brutalities?  VOA explains: Somali authorities are trading captured refugees in return for ammunition and materials or simply to prove loyalty and friendship to Ethiopia.  Senior Ethiopian government official Bereket Simon denied the allegation in a VOA telephone interview. Bereket says those arrested were terrorists.

African Problems To African Solutions: Several months ago, the US envoy to Sudan warned that “failure to set the border between north and south, share the oil wealth and pass key laws [and] the militarization of the contested areas around Sudan's oil fields, where neither the government nor southerners have followed their pledges to pull out troops” were endangering Sudan’s 2005 peace agreement between North and South.  Nothing happens in Africa until there is a crisis: on Thursday 10/11, the SPLM withdrew 19 of its ministers and deputy ministers from the Government of Sudan. This was followed by mediators from Egypt and Kenya and Bashir has reshuffled his cabinet. But SPLM is not impressed and is not rejoining the government yet although it has vowed that it will not revert back to war.

The Counting Backwards List: We Are # 1!  Now Eritrea has replaced North Korea as the most repressive state when it comes to journalists, according to RSF’s Worldwide Press Freedom Index.  “There is nothing surprising about this,” Reporters Without Borders said. “Even if we are not aware of all the press freedom violations in North Korea and Turkmenistan, which are second and third from last, Eritrea deserves to be at the bottom. The privately-owned press has been banished by the authoritarian President Issaias Afeworki and the few journalists who dare to criticise the regime are thrown in prison. We know that four of them have died in detention and we have every reason to fear that others will suffer the same fate.” This is on top of many dubious distinctions Eritrea has received lately: Eritrea is ranked third from the bottom in the Global Hunger Index; ranked number one in having the world’s costliest gas prices; ranked number one in refugees outflow per capita; number one in armed forces per capita; number one in the worst place to start a business and number one in the worst place for parliamentarians. 

Resentment and Rations As Eritrea Enters A Crisis: After flrting with the Kool-Aid and writing fluff pieces on Eritrea ("Democratic or not, there is a certain easygoingness in Asmara..."), the New York Times' Jeffrey Gettleman finally seems to have scratched the surface in today's report: But beneath the peace, harmony and South Beach style that once made Eritrea the little gem of Africa, cracks are beginning to show. There are bread lines, milk lines and lines for rationed cooking gas. At night, dissidents meet on dark streets to chat secretly in parked cars.  The cracks, the long lines and people who are interviewed on the condition that their names are not disclosed have been around for years, but it is good of the New York Times to finally notice and report them.

Hypothetically Speaking…  When the Eritrean dictator was accused of training and arming the Somali insurgency, his first line of defense was, “where is your evidence?”  He seems to be tired of that answer and he is now trying, “so what if I did?” We stood by the TPLF all those years, we supported the right to resist and fight the Mengistu regime or even the previous regime. We stood on the side of all Ethiopians without distinction – the Oromos, Amharas, Somalis, Afars, Tigreans - for a new Ethiopia. If these people now believe this government is not representative and this government is leading Ethiopia to the unknown, they fight for their rights. If the Somalis who today see their land occupied fight this occupation; isn’t it legitimate for anyone, any peace-loving [person] to support their cause? Source

Breakaway Somaliland Fights Semi-autonomous Puntland: For 17 years, Somaliland has been arguing that it deserves to be recognized as an independent state because it has delivered stability and elections.  The world, except for Dr. J. Peter Pham, yawned.  Now it will finally get attention: it is having a border dispute with Puntland, which is part of Somalia but aching to be more autonomous. "Somaliland troops have captured the entire village and 100 Puntland troops. Somaliland has warned that if Puntland troops try to come back, they would not mind going deep into Puntland territory," a security official who tracks Somalia said. AFP and Reuters have the pieces of the puzzle. Puntland is at a disadvantage because Somalia’s TFG president, Abdella Yusuf, who is from Puntland, hollowed its defense force for his own security; Somaliland hates Abdella Yusuf because he attacked its capital Hargesia in the 1990s; Ethiopia uses Somaliland’s Berbera as its main port, after its border dispute with Eritrea.  And this cause for pessimism: The border problem has been compounded by calls in July by hardline chiefs in the neighbouring Sanaag region -- which has a history of a Sultanate -- for autonomy, further threatening to split the Horn of Africa nation. The chiefs had renamed the region Makhir and Badhan as its capital, raising tension with Puntland authorities.

Ogaden 2007 = Darfur 2007 = Somalia 1990: Last week, the UK’s Daily Telegraph reported that Ogaden is the new Darfur.  Now, according to the New York Times, Darfur is Somalia circa 1990.  The problem with Darfur is that it is not a Kosovo, an East Timor, or a Cyprus, all places where United Nations blue helmets have stepped between well-defined warring parties and stopped the bloodshed. Darfur is experiencing a different, messier kind of war.Though often simplified, the situation in Darfur has become a chaotic free-for-all with many warring pieces, Arab versus Arab, rebel versus rebel, bandit versus bandit, all fighting one another in a desiccated, burned-out wasteland overrun with weapons and increasingly lethal for aid workers and peacekeepers. If anything, Darfur resembles Somalia in the 1990s, when the failure of American-backed United Nations peacekeepers to subdue teenage gunmen in flip-flops ushered in 16 years of chaos that rages on today. And Mogadishu is the new Baghdad and…

More on Eritrea’s “Economic Migrants”:  The International Herald Tribune reports: Egyptian police opened fire Saturday on a group of 10 African immigrants trying to illegally cross into Israel and arrested four of them, a Sinai security official said. The other six managed to cross into Israel, said the official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media. It was not know if any of the six had been injured by the gunfire. The four who were arrested were all Eritrean and told authorities that the six who crossed included three people from Eritrea, one from Sudan and another from the Ivory Coast. Israel Today knows what happened to one of those injured by the gunfire:  The wounded man died a short time later after the group was picked up by Israeli soldiers.

“Disappeared Off The Face Of Earth”:  In his interview with the Los Angeles Times, the Eritrean dictator calls his political opponents degenerates; His stenographer claims, without any evidence, that they are being treated “with great care and magnanimity” by a regime that considers them degenerates. But enough with the clowns: what do human rights activists think? The Inter-Parliamentary Union, an organization established in 1889 to monitor the rights of parliamentarians, has a human rights committee.  VOA Reports: The Human Rights Committee of the Inter-Parliamentary Union says the cases of more than 250 parliament members in 32 countries who have been imprisoned, killed or disappeared remain unresolved and continue to be a matter of grave concern.  Representatives from many of the more than 140 national parliaments that are members of the IPU attended an international conference in Geneva this week.  Canadian Senator Sharon Carstairs says she considers Eritrea to be the worst offending country. "And, I would say it is the worst, because parliamentarians have disappeared in 2001," she said.  "And, they have literally disappeared off the face of the earth.  We know nothing about these individuals.  It is hard to highlight a case when you do not know anything about those individuals.  We have asked to go to Eritrea, to take a mission to Eritrea.  So far, we have not been able to do that." 

Self-delusion: Pride Is Thy Name. The Eritrean president was interviewed by UN’s IRIN News. One of the claims he made in the interview was about food security: “We can say that we have successfully implemented programmes on food security and we may have reached a level where we do not need any food aid from outside. The economy is performing well - not in terms of statistics - that would be very misleading. The performance could only be measured by the changes in the quality of life of people here.” And how is the qualify of life in Eritrea? In a particularly bad case of unfortunate timing for the dictator, the German NGO Deutsche Welthungerlife issued its Global Hunger Index (GHI) the same day that he was interviewed. The GHI is a composite of a nation’s malnutrition rate, underweight children rate, and under-five children’s mortality rate. You can read the 2007 GHI pdf report here.   Of the 118 countries indexed, Eritrea is ranked third from the bottom, with war-torn Democratic Republic of Congo and Burundi bringing up the rear.  Heading the third hungriest nation in the world, Isaias Afwerki is able to routinely make wild claims about his accomplishments because reporters are so eager to find an African nation that works that they forget to do basic research about the nation.  

“Shooting Incidents”.   The UN can have dozens of missions monitoring tense spots indefinitely.  They become causes for concern when there is a “shooting incident.” As was the case, apparently, between Eritrea and Ethiopia: "The secretary-general is concerned about the rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, including recent shooting incidents, as well as the building up of military forces in the border area," U.N. deputy spokeswoman Marie Okabe said Thursday.  These shooting incidents were not reported by Eritrea or Ethiopia but, as reported by UNMEE radio, they apparently occurred on October 8^th.

Yusuf vs Ghedi: Round 1.  On July 30, 2006 Somalia’s Prime Minister, Ali Mohammed Gedi, barely survived a no-confidence vote by his parliament.  Ministers resigned, the Ethiopian foreign minister visited Baidoa, and new parliament was formed.  And the series continues, this time with the President, Abdella Yusuf, cheering on the no-confidence vote.  What do Somali politicians do when Plan A fails? The BBC reports: “Not prepared to be the fall guy, the president has garnered the support of more than 20 ministers and a large number of the 275 MPs who are calling for a parliamentary vote of no confidence in Mr Ghedi's administration. The prime minister is not taking this lying down and has forged an alliance with the Hawiye, a power clan which has been supporting the insurgency and long controlled Mogadishu where Mr Yusuf has always been unpopular. The country is braced for a political duel.”

Beneath Contempt:   A secular state places limits not only on religious leaders from political involvement but also on political leaders from religious involvement.  The Eritrean Orthodox Church has been going through a difficult period.  If you want to see how the Eritrean regime is not only not impartial but deeply involved in this intra-church dispute that many believe it instigated; if you want evidence of its complicity, listen to this re-broadcast provided by Voice of Meselna Delina of an announcement carried by Atlanta’s Voice of Eritrea on September 7, 2007.  The Eritrean Embassy in the USA, which is supposed to represent all Eritreans in America, here tells Eritreans that “effective today”, it is no longer acceptable to be a follower of the non-sanctioned group; that they are enemies of national security who either must be rehabilitated or be confronted, removed and ostracized. Asmarino is calling the program “Wey Gud” and the broadcast starts at the 2.45 mark.

Baghdad By The Indian Ocean: Somali Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Gedi was preparing for a tough day in Baidoa: showdown with Somali President Abdallah Yusuf on their running feud.  Then things got worse: A suicide bomber drove a pickup truck filled with explosives into an army base, killing himself and two others near a hotel where the prime minister set up temporary headquarters, officials said Thursday. The explosion late Wednesday, in the southern town of Baidoa, targeted a base manned mostly by Ethiopian troops, who are here protecting Somalia's weak government. Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi was not hurt. Source

Another Country, Another UN Investigation, Another Damnation: In 2005, the UN Security Council Committee set up a “Panel of Experts” to look into the arm flow to Chad in violation of the arms embargo (Resolutions 1591 and 1713.)  One sure way to stop an investigation is to reject or refuse to answer requests, an art perfected by member states including Saudi Arabia, Libya, Egypt and now Eritrea.  Nonetheless, on September 10, the Panel of Experts issued its report which was distributed by the UN’s Chairman of the Security Council on October 2^nd.  You can access the long pdf report here.  Excerpt on Eritrea:  The Panel has investigated allegations concerning the purchase by JEM of more than 3,000 AK-47 assault rifles, 3 unspecified model rocket launchers and an unspecified quantity of 23-mm anti-aircraft guns. These weapons are believed to have been bought in a Member State, which the Panel has contacted with a view to securing more information, and the Panel will await a response before providing further information to the Committee. It is further believed that the weapons were shipped through Eritrea and from there transported by air to N’Djamena and then eastern Chad for delivery to JEM. A trip to Asmara by the Panel to meet with Eritrean Government officials to follow up on the reports could not be facilitated by the Government of Eritrea. Coming soon from Eritrea: a categorical, unequivocal, "and where's your evidence" denial.

Sudan Checking Off The Entire List: In international law, jus cogens refers to internationally accepted norms that must be observed at all times. Jus cogens includes prohibition against genocide, slave trade and refoulement (forcibly returning refugees to their places of origin.) Sudan has been accused of genocide and slave trade and now: The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, on Thursday condemned the recent deportation by Sudan of at least 15 Ethiopian refugees. The deportation took place on September 27, but UNHCR only learned of it this week. The refugees were handed over by Sudanese officials to Ethiopian authorities at the border crossing of Metema, about 500 kms south-east of Khartoum. Source

Speaking of Jus Cogens:  Libya is still holding, and still threatening to deport back to Eritrea, hundreds of Eritreans who trekked the distance, mostly on foot from Eritrea to Libya. We do not have to guess of the fate that awaits them: we have read testimonies from those who managed to survive and escape their detention at  Gedem, the 6^th Brigade Prison, Gel’alo and Dahlak.  This is part of the topic that Eritrea’s Isaias Afwerki and the Libyan Brother Leader include in their “bilateral, regional” discussions.

The Other Darfur (7.30 N, 45.30 E): Ethiopian troops have blockaded areas seen as rebel strongholds, halting the flow of goods and leaving some 600,000 people dependent on food aid to avoid starvation. Soldiers have armed local militias to fight the ONLF, carrying out a divide-and-rule policy which could inflame the war. Moreover, the army has singled out civilians for collective punishment. One 37-year-old woman, who was too fearful of government reprisals to be named, said the army had burned down her village of Fojdeh. "So many troops and trucks came and surrounded us. They said we have been giving food to the rebels. They made us move away from the village and then they burned down every hut," she said. To disguise the consequences of its campaign, the government has prevented the creation of refugee camps. Instead, scattered groups of people who have fled their villages live on patches of wasteground across Gode. Others have fled over the border into Somalia. Daily Telegraph

The Limits Of The Big Stick: But the relationship has begun to resemble many of Washington’s alliances with troublesome client regimes, based mostly on geopolitical interest. Ethiopia, which received $283m (£139m, €200m) of military and humanitarian aid from Washington this year, looks increasingly like Pakistan or Egypt: an awkward bedfellow that the US has to support for security goals but one that pursues its own, sometimes brutal, agenda regardless of American pressure. Source

We Are # 1! (Counting Backwards):  One more area where Eritrea is running on empty: gasoline prices.  The German NGO, TSZ, conducted a fuel survey world-wide and, guess what? Eritrea has beaten the world again.  Gasoline costs more in Eritrea than it does in Somalia, Congo, Chad, Zimbabwe…In fact, diesel and gasoline at 81c/liter and $1.90/liter, cost more in Eritrea than anywhere else in the world. Refer to page 44 of the 106-paged PDF document  

Adam Smith Explains The Motives Of The PFDJ Supporters: There are Americans who want their country to be in perpetual state of war. To understand their motives, Salon.com quotes Adam Smith’s “An Inquiry Into The Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations.”  We also have Eritreans who want their country to be in a perpetual state of war.  Does Adam Smith have an answer to explain the behavior of those who are cheering wars from safe distances? Yes, he does: In great empires the people who live in the capital, and in the provinces remote from the scene of action, feel, many of them, scarce any inconveniency from the war; but enjoy, at their ease, the amusement of reading in the newspapers the exploits of their own fleets and armies. To them this amusement compensates the small difference between the taxes which they pay on account of the war, and those which they had been accustomed to pay in time of peace. They are commonly dissatisfied with the return of peace, which puts an end to their amusement, and to a thousand visionary hopes of conquest and national glory from a longer continuance of the war. In Adam Smith's scenario, the wars are distant and the cheerleaders live in the capital.  In Eritrea, the wars are at home, and the cheerleaders live in the capitals of foreign nations.