I don’t blame the few European governments that continually try to bail Isaias out--the Italian government, our beloved previous master is in the forefront. The noble Italian government has not abandoned Eritrea, it is empowering our leader so that we don’t miss the glorious Mussolini. They love our leader and we are very grateful and thankful indeed. I heard he reminds them of the great Hitler-- maybe it is his moustache! Could it be his road building skills? Because like Hitler he likes roads even if what he builds is washed away by scanty summer showers! Europe’s freeway network was conceived in the mind of Hitler. The impressive autobahn is now a landmark on the topography of any country that boasts of prosperity. Hitler came up with the people’s cheap vehicle, the Volkswagen, and Isaias came up with the people’s free labor, the Warsay. So, what is the difference between an Aryan and a non-Aryan complexion if you have the same moustache? Negligible.

This is not the first time the European Union is trying to give Isaias a mouth-to-mouth resuscitation, the good European First Aid. Yes, he will be the EU’s partner for bringing about peace to the Horn of Africa. The EU has promised to fund a road project to Sudan and to Djibouti. But that was not clear to a naïve website that asked: “is the road going through Eritrea?” No. It will be a suspended bridge running from Port Sudan to Djibouti flying over Eritrea. Damn it. Why not, “the man” likes his baseball hat and inspecting construction projects. Why not, Europe has to fund his pet project; they don’t want him to think of igniting another war which may be misunderstood to look like blackmail. Why not, Ali Baba and the forty thieves have their huge pots of loot in a safe place, in Europe. Thanks to the European Union. We are grateful for the past and we are grateful for the present, and the way things are going, we will be in the future. Keep doing the second best thing Europe ever did after the renaissance: cajoling the enlightened, democratic and just leader Isaias.

Western governments are, especially European, never indecisive. Never dull. Never mediocre. They are so nice they still count on Isaias to respect human rights. What a big heart. After so many insults and disrespect, they wish to make a statesman of a man Eritreans wrongly consider a brute. Snake charmers are dying of envy. A man wrongly accused by his own people as being without principle, without any trace of decency and civility is now for the umpteenth time being polished to be transformed to the real enlightened leader that he is! And then the mediocre observers (of course not European governments) wonder why people are pushed to the extremes. Meanwhile, the stupid Eritreans are wrongly wondering, why does the EU keep adopting political-lepers? And the crooked wisdom echoes: go it alone Eritreans, forget the rest of the world and square it alone with your political leper and his clique using crude methods of sorting out conflicts! They are not heeding that advice, but what are Eritreans supposed to do? Power to the EU… and Libya’s Gaddafi. 

Of Power Vacuums and Freedoms

In the mid nineties a circus elephant rebelled and killed its trainer, injured others, broke the rails, burst out to the streets of Honolulu and run amok smashing cars and anything on its way. A scary chase by the police and tens of rounds of shots later, the elephant was dead. 

Four years ago a white Puma of the Siegfried and Roy show at the Las Vegas Mirage Hotel snapped on stage and mauled its trainer Roy who was left half paralyzed.

When I was a child, I forgot to secure the cage of birds I was carrying to sell to the snake farm and we lost all the birds we have been catching for the whole day.

All the three instances were cause by something I can comfortably call serious power vacuums.

In the Elephant's case, it was obviously protesting its imprisonment in a small area when it was created to roam in the open savannahs. The moment it got a chance, it just went out and looked at all the people in the streets as potential jailers. It gave a good fight until it was shot and died pursuing its freedom.

In the puma's case, it was just tired of living in a place not of its choice and wanted to express its disgust at its enslaving master. Though it was later subdued, and returned to captivity, the cacophony was enough to help it make its point.

In the third case, the vacuum was in fact a welcome opportunity for the birds to reclaim their freedom. Any jailed being is thrilled by a power vacuum and a chance to reclaim freedom. I believe all the people in the PFDJ’s slave department, known as “Warsay“, would be thrilled to see a power vacuum.

Many Eritreans and non-Eritreans express their concern for of an unexpected vacuum that might be created once the PFDJ is gone. Some fear the vacuum; others think it is the best thing that could happen to Eritrea. Still others are not sure. I do not fear that vacuum because I know there are many birds in Eritrea. I consider a power vacuum a natural outcome after the demise of any oppressive regime. What I think is needed is that people should have clear strategies to handle the transfer of power in a democratic manner. I think of the Eritrean vacuum as the vacuum that would give the shackled Eritrean their freedom. Only the Siegfried & Roys and the zoo keepers in Eritrea need to fear a vacuum- not the zoo or circus animals who suffer in captivity.

It is important to think on the scenarios that would bring about the change before assuming that any change would bring about a power vacuum. There are three scenarios that would bring about the downfall of the regime. And now, it is evidently no more a question of ‘would the regime fall?’, but rather ‘when will the regime fall down?’ And the most likely engines are obvious. 

Popular uprising: Though it seems very unlikely, no one can predict the reaction of a chained people once they exhaust their patience and the lid that has been kept tight is blown off. That patience is mainly due to fear: fear instilled by the regime, fear that made Eritreans skeptical, suspicious of each other and caused them to embrace temporary defeat. Those hindrances are no more entrenched in the psyche of the population as a year or so ago. There is a chance for a popular uprising that could bring about a transfer of power within the top echelon of the PFDJ who would certainly rearrange their policies and issue “cooling off gestures” by releasing prisoners and loosening their grips on freedoms. But since they are part and parcel of the PFDJ, they would not get away with any cosmetic changes of the oppressive policies. However, they might win over a segment of the population that would try to avert the unknown by settling for less and be willing to give the new clique a chance. Regional and international entities might follow suit to avoid the risks of falling into the unknown. Hint? The Arabs of our region and the EU.

Coup D'Etat: One of the emerging groupings within the army might depose the dictatorship and take hold of state matters and announce  a state of emergency (or martial law). This could lead to either a Swar AlDahab style coup or a Mengistu type. Again, regional and international entities would react in only one way regardless of how the change comes about. If those who control state powers are any of the notorious generals and their sidekicks from within the commissioned officers, Eritrea will certainly head towards the path of Somalia. If however, those who take power are the rare Suwar AlDahab types, a safe transition might follow.

War with Neighbors: If the regime is brought down due to an Ethiopian attack, it will be messy. But no one will feel sorry, even the present ally Gaddafi included. The regime has just surrounded itself with enemies far and near, big and small, good and bad. For Eritreans however, the suspicions will be further entrenched and the outcome will depend on how any invading power will act. Needless to say, Eritreans will never accept any change that comes from an invasion of their country. If that happens, it will result in an “intifada” the region has not seen anything like. Incidentally, Isaias knows this and that is what he is betting on. He just wants to goad the Ethiopians into doing just that: invade Eritrea and install a regime. Isaias is a dictator but his mental faculty is created to manage crisis and create chaos. He just thrives in chaos.

It is also possible that a clash with Ethiopia might be a catalyst for other internal forces to move. Given the fact that the Ethiopian Government knows these scenarios, it is most unlikely that they would consider Eritrea a catwalk. The outcome of any such adventure cannot even be remotely compared to that of Somalia, it would be extremely messy.  

Traditional opposition: In its present state it is a wild dream to even think the opposition would bring about change. The major opposition grouping seem to have missed the chance in the February congress when it could have emerged united, focused and stronger. So far, we don’t even see in the leaders a feeling for the shame they caused for the whole opposition. They don’t seem to be willing even to consider a slight sway from their stubbornness and are going on the same crooked path that brought them to where they are. Until we witness a miraculous turn-around, the role of the EDA has been relegated to even less importance than what many envisioned it would be until early this year.

The Horn of Africa

Azenda, which was a remnant of the Italian colonizer, was later renamed The Ethiopian Highway Authority. Though the company had many workers who looked busy carrying picks and spades, it didn’t build any roads save some maintenance work on the old Italian built highways – See! We are indebted to the Italians. After the independence of Eritrea, the company died and was reincarnated in the form of a mythical monster with ten heads that included Segen, Roadab and the rest of the PFDJ mafia enterprises. These entities are sucking the blood of the youth through what is popularly known as “Wefri Barnet”.

Probably the best articulation of the predicament of Eritrean youth was elucidated by ambassador Adhanom Gebremariam in his aptly titled treatise, “wefri Warsay Yekaalo, Wefri Barnet”.  In a series of articles about “The Campaign of Slavery”, Adhanom analyzed the injustice in great detail and gave it a clear concept.

The PFDJ rulers see themselves as contractors who should milk the nation of its meager resources. To that end, their conglomerates are hoarding money by exploiting the youth who are forced to work for free: slave labor, and they gloat about it a lot. Give me a hundred thousand young energetic workers for unlimited period of time and without pay, and I can build you gigantic structures that would dwarf the pyramids. That is how the Pharaohs built the pyramids: slave labor.

The Colonels of the PFDJ

The clique made up a few known figures including the ruthless generals, is standing on pillars made of colonels, about 110 of them. A chunk of the colonels are frozen and relegated to non-essential positions because they have traces of human principles. A good number of them have each formed his own fiefdom and are involved in illicit trade, contraband, extracting free labor from the youth and switching bedmates from the many young girls more frequently than they would change their underwear. A few colonels are straddling the middle-wall either because of fear for their families, fear for their own lives or just outright selfishness and greed. The moment this group is swayed to side with the people, the Eritrean tragedy will come to an end – handling the top class of the generals is easy. Officers below the colonel class are part and parcel of the downtrodden and no problem comes from them.

The colonel group includes the real enemies of the people and at the same time, the hope of the nation. The enemies among them should be identified and the hopeful encouraged to take a patriotic stand. I have repeatedly said that Eritreans should not expect others to solve their problems for them. Will the colonels take charge? Will they face the corrupt Generals and their tentacles? Will the colonels save their country from the impeding risks that it faces? The vacuum is possible and maybe inevitable, but is not necessarily bad.
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