If what happened in Addis Abeba a month ago had been witnessed six years ago, here in Asmara the Opposition would have been considered a traitor and a fifth columnist. But not now.

When it comes to the Eritrean people, any political issue that does not hinder the people from their daily livelihood is not an issue.  Even the war was not going to be an issue according to the PFDJ.  As recently as 2004, people thought that there is a way out to the situation in Eritrea.  After all, the government had been drumming up the propaganda that “the Woyane aggression would never hinder us from our development program.” Therefore, the people accepted this and life continued as usual.

But the disastrous policies and decisions of the government have completely turned away the people against government and people have concluded kabziom zikefi’e yelon [there is none worse than these people.]  What are the policies that brought this about?

Social Policies

Eritrean mothers deserve praise.  In the EPLF, as if we didn’t say, “Men kem Eritrawiyan Adetat? Silimatenin deqenin nhageren zewefiya, deqen tesewi’om Elil zibla…” [Who compares to the Eritrean Mother? Who has sacrificed more than the Eritrean mother? They ululate upon hearing the martyrdom of their own children…”  Now our mothers are being imprisoned like a simple criminal without an arrest warrant or a court order.

As if Eritrean youth were not commended as the young lions and fierce tigresses for their valor, they are now being hunted everywhere for absenteeism, lateness after vacation or desertion. They are shot on sight if they are suspected of fleeing to a neighboring country. Whereas the regime claimed that it considers a drop of Eritrean blood as the most precious thing, it has now become a bit of rubbish in the sewage.

Mothers and who love their mothers, youth and all who love the youth, now have turned against the government.  Now look at the next big issue. 

Economic Policies

Eritrea’s export is no more than 5% of its imports.   With nothing to export, the PFDJ coffers began to be empty, and the regime reacted by revoking business licenses and in the end prohibiting all imports.  As a result, all traders migrated to the Middle East and African countries like Uganda, Kenya, and Angola etc. where their businesses have prospered amazingly.  

The PFDJ’s decisions were a heavy blow to the Eritrean economy.  This will be clear to all when I describe what happened next,

Price increases and long lines.  Petrol began to be rationed: there was a price hike in Benzine to 2.50 USD per litre.  This was simultaneous with the strict rationing of diesel whose price was also hiked to 1.0 USD per liter. Eritrea entered into a period of stagnation and recession.

As if this was not enough, the government suspended all licenses of building contractors, architectures and consultants. The suspension of importation was children’s play compared to the suspension of licenses. It was at this time that Asmara was transformed into a ghost city.

Now came the unemployment.  Because of this strategic blunder of suspending lincenses, the metal industry suffered greatly. Thousands of daily laborers and lorry drivers were out of employment immediately.  Teashops and restaurants and bars looked forlorn and could not pay their monthly rent.

People Turn Against PFDJ

The total of the unpopular social and economic policies resulted in a new phenomenon in Eritrea. This phenomenon changed not only the life of every household in Eritrea, but it also transformed the opinion of the people against PFDJ. Even the ardent supporters of the regime began to criticize it openly.

Gone were the days when people thought the PFDJ as the patron of the Eritrean people. People began to say, “Eziatom keytef’u selam yelen, loms Hluf Halifuwom bkebdna kihzuna.” [Now trying to control our appetites? There will be no peace until these people disappear.] Needless to say, if people are summoned to a meeting of a mimhdar, which they usually come by force, they never talk their mind either because they are fear becoming the next target of the predatory PFDJ or because they know that nothing will be done for they were betrayed long ago.

The people have become hateful to the PFDJ due to these basic points.   Now except in the lowlands of Barka which I have not adequate information, most Eritreans even in the remotest areas despise and hate the regime and say kabziom zikefi’e yelon [there is none worse than these people.]  They would accept anyone, even the devil, in lieu of them. It is this knowledge that makes Issayas, when he is drunk to the brim, as I wrote to you before, say things like, “Mszi keda’e hzbi kinire’e’e ina,”

The Opposition

As mentioned earlier, the ties between the opposition and the Ethiopian government were looked suspiciously as recently as 2004. Of course the PFDJ does not talk officially about the opposition. But clandestinely it tries its best to disassociate the people from it by disseminating that they are traitors etc. The masses never care about the opposition because they have meager information.  Besides, the opposition is active only in its respective localities. Here in Eritrea, the broad masses have no information. People are afraid to open opposition websites at internet cafes. Those who have access to internet in their offices or private homes are a trickle. In such a situation, people are informed about the current situation from hearsay. Not only this, PFDJ has infiltrated every sector of the society with its security network that people are afraid to talk casually.

But the people have become fed up with the regime that even the security people themselves are disgusted with the regime and are not committed to their employer. I know so many of them who talk negatively about the regime.  Even the security people. The reason for this is that the economic crisis has blanketed everyone from top to bottom.  Because of the serious blunders the regime committed, no one cares or talks about the relationship between Ethiopia and the opposition. The people began to look for change from the opposition.

But due to its various shortcomings, the opposition has become good for nothing in the opinion of the people.  In Asmara these days people are only saying, “Eziatom bilash iyom ayteqmun iyom, Kulu wedioms bisiltan kiba’asu?...” [These people are good for nothing: how can they manage to agree on everything and then fight over power?] Otherwise, there is no talk about their relation with Woyane. The people were expecting that they would at least have political leverage in the national arena as well as the international one if they became united. Alas! This did not materialize.

What should the opposition do in such a situation? Primarily, they should unite at any cost. If their aim is the emancipation of the Eritrean people, what is the purpose of trying to grab as much political power as you can while the national question is the priority? The protagonists will be judged by history.

How The Regime Will Fall

The opinion of most people on how the regime will fall varies:

They say, the economic disaster will facilitate its fall from power. This is the opinion of many knowledgeable people. PFDJ’s days in power could even be months if the Diaspora cooperates in boycotting the regime financially as well as politically. Many claim DIA will flee to somewhere.

They say if the economic disaster tightens to the extent of hunger and disease, Eritrea may be ungovernable due to security problems and a coup may follow.

They say if the Ethiopian regime in conjunction with the opposition attacks Eritrea, PFDJ will retreat to Sahel but no one except its stooges will follow it. Therefore, the opposition will walk to Asmara and create a transitional government.

After The Fall Of The Dictator

These being the general opinions, there are some who drum up PFDJ’s disinformation that if Issayas is removed, ethnic rivalry could follow. But this is purely PFDJ propaganda. The Eritrean people after all are fed up of war, bloodshed and famine. Every person in Eritrea now only wants to have a decent work so that he can have food and shelter. Let alone the people, even the military itself does not want to fight.

In a closed meeting held at Barka two years ago, Generals Fillipos and Wedi Habteselassie were discussing the possibility of making war to retrieve Badme.  This is what they reported to DIA, “If it is an order from the government we can launch war.  But making war now will be a suicide. The soldiers will turn their guns against us.”  On the other hand, General Andemariam Wuchu (of course) claimed that it was possible but the two opposed him. Therefore, if the military has developed a phobia for war what do you expect from the poor people?

Another point is: if the people have the desire to wage a civil, they would have used it to remove DIA instead of using to fighting against themselves after their biggest problem (DIA’s removal) is solved? It is a paradox to think as some claim that the people will fight amongst themselves. After all, there is no such trend in Eritrea.

After DIA’s fall some politicians may try to exploit the ethnic card for their political gains.  But thanks to PFDJ, people are fed up with parties, politicians and demagogues. Gone are the days when people were emotional and were eager to go out and demonstrate if they were told to do so. The situation now is so intolerable that no one cares about the government or a crackpot dictator.

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