We had been talking to Mohammed Taha Tewekel ever since the Union of Islamic Courts emerged as a powerful group in Somalia and began challenging the government.  For weeks, he had been contradicting every so-called Somalia expert: he told us that there would be no protracted war; that, despite the Western reports, the UIC had no "popular" support; that it was not militarily prepared to challenge Ethiopia and would quickly collapse; that the UIC would bring about something that has never happened in Somalian history: an Ethiopian march to Mogadishu. On Friday, December 29, 2006, a day after Mogadishu fell, we decided to interview him.  The interview was conducted in Arabic and transcribed in English.  For additional information on Tewekel and what qualifies him as an expert on the developments in the Horn of Africa, please refer to an interview we conducted with him on September 12, 2003.

Without going too far back into history, let's begin with a post-colonial history of Somalia, so we can place the current Somali turmoil in context.

As we all know Somalia, the Southern part of it was a colony of Italy [Italian Somaliland] and the Northern part was a British colony [British Somaliland]. Both colonies received independence in 1960 and a united Somalia was born. Seven months later, it had its elections.  Aden Osman was elected the first president and Abdulreshid was named prime minister,

Now, whenever we talk about Somalia, we have to talk about the clan, particularly the 4 major clans: 1. Darod; 2. Dir; 3. Rehawen and 4. Hawiya.   These clans would distribute the government posts of speaker of parliament, head of state, prime minister and sovereign portfolios [defense and internal ministries and deputy PM] amongst them.

Aden Osman, the first head of state was from the Hawiya clan.  He still lives in his farm around Afgoui, about 25Kms from Mogadishu and has been looking at things all along.  What is notable about him is that he is the only one in Somalia�s history who voluntarily resigned his post after being head of state for 3 years. Abdureshid Shermeki, who was from the Darod clan, replaced him.

Abdureshid Shermeki was the outcome of the frenzied democracy that was introduced then�there were 150 political parties, with each clan, sub-clan and sub-sub-clan forming its own party. Abdureshid Shermeki was mysteriously killed and there is no official closure to his assassination.  Thereafter, as happens often in Africa, a soldier stepped in to bring in order�that man was Ziad Barre, a former Italian soldier.  The year was 1969.

You recounted a brief history, so let's go to 1977, and the Ethiopian- Somalian war.

After Somalia's defeat, Abdella Yousef who was a commander with the Ziad Barre�s army entered Ethiopia� he was hardliner and zealous in fighting the Ethiopians�

The current president of Somalia?

Yes, Abdella Yousef attempted a coup to overthrow Ziad Barre.  The coup failed and Abdella Yousef ran to Ethiopia and formed an opposition with Aideed et al. He later clashed with Mengistu Hailemariam who put him in jail. He was freed by the EPRDF who defeated Mengistu�s army in 1991.

Does Abdella Yousef going to Ethiopia in the first place have a clannish shade?

Not really, both Abdella Yousef and Ziad Barre are from the Darod clan though from different sub-clans.  Abdella Yousef is from the historically powerful Mejirreten and Ziad Barre is from Merehann... 

Go on.

Also in the picture is General Aideed, who is a Hawiya. General Aideed formed Muetemer Somalia Almuwahad [United Somali Congress]. Meanwhile, Abdella Yousef also formed an opposition group, based in Ethiopia. Also around this time, Abdurahman Tor, from the Dir clan, Ishaq sub-clan, unilaterally announced the independence of Somaliland in May 1991. He literally told the Southerners to first solve their problem and then open a dialogue with Somaliland. Abdella Yousef and Aideed fought against each other, and the Somali civil war that destroyed Mogadishu started� 

Who is this guy, Abdulrahman Tor, and why is he familiar to Eritreans?

He used to be the ambassador to Sudan as well as many other Arab countries. He went to school in Sudan with people like the ex-president of Sudan, Jaafer Numeiri and Dr. AlTurabi. He was a dedicated supporter of Eritrean independence and once he threatened both the Sudanese and Ethiopians that Somalia will know how to react if any of the two countries conspired against the Eritreans. This was in the conference that was held in Freetown during the time of Numeiri and Mengistu�

Ok.

Anyway, he then formed AlJebha Alweteniya, [the National Front.]   Now the four clans had their representatives: Abdella Yousef, Darod/Mejirreten; Ziad Barre, Darod/Merihann; General Aideed, Hawiya/Haber Gedir; Abdulkader Zoba, based in Baidoa and without an armed group, is Rehawen/Dign Menefre.  Then there are the minor clans, which are simply known as other clans and sub-clans. Once in Mogadishu, the Darod and Hawiya developed differences�

Which is to say�Abdella Yousef vs. General Aideed?

Yes.  There was a civil war between the Hawiya and the Darod. Somalia was divided into power centers. Abdella Yousef went to the North East and formed Puntland administration [Darod] and General Aideed [Hawiya] controlled central and Southern Somalia. Now, we fast forward to 1991. January 1991 was the downfall of Barre.  Somaliland had its first conference known as the conference of Borma (Somaliland) and elected Mohammed Ibrahim Igal as head of state. Four months later, Hawiya, Darod and Rehawen held had another conference in Djibouti and elected Ali Mahdi Mohammed, from the Hawiya clan, Abgal sub-clan. Aideed refused to recognize Ali Mahdi�s authority.

What about the Abdurahman Tor? Wasn't he president?

Of Somaliland, that was in May 1991. In 1993, Ethiopia hosted a conference in Addis Ababa to reconcile the Ali-Mahdi-Aideed group at the Ghion Hotel. But until 1997, Aideed challenged the outcome and Mogadishu was divided into North and South as I mentioned earlier. The Northern end was dominated by the Hawiya/Abgal and the Southern by the Haber Geder. Aideed was militarily defeated.

In 1997, the Hawiya, Darod, Menefere and others held a congress at Sodere [a famous resort in Ethiopia]. Later the same year, all the political players had a conference in Cairo, Egypt, where they made a historic mistake: they elected both the head of state and the prime minister from the Hawiya clan.  In protest, Abdella Yousef withdrew from the Cairo Conference. 

In 1998, the Eritrea-Ethiopia war broke out.  Then another conference was held in Arta in Djibouti.

In August 2000, another conference was held in Djibouti, this one attended by the heads of states of IGAD nations. Abdulkasem Salat was elected president from the Hawiya/Habergeder/Ayer.

Again, Abdullah Yousef, Aideeed, Osman Atu and many others later known as warlords abstained�

Because?

It was the absence of civil society; it was basically a deal among the clans, with each clan presenting 50 candidates, for a total membership of 250 'parliamentarians.'   Ali Khelifa Gleir, a technocrat from the Darod clan was elected the Prime Minister; Abdulkasem Salat, a Hawiya, was elected head of state and Abdella Diro, a Rahwen Digel Menefere was speaker of the parliament.  Etc. For a term of two years.  This clan-based democracy was a model adopted by the Italians in 1960, and it seemed to be what the Somalis were comfortable with.

So, what went wrong?

9/11.  The Somali head of state, Abdulkasem Salat, was supported by the Islamists and he was attacked for that.  He was forever declaring Jihad on Ethiopia for one reason or another. In October 2002, the Aldulkasem era ended. This initiated another IGAD-sponsored conference, in Nairobi�

Who was in the conference?

250 members of parliament: 50 Hawiya; 50 Darod; 50 Dir/Ishaq; 50 Rehawen, and 50 from the other minority clans. What made this one different was that it was attended by Abdella Yousef and General Aideed and both men made many concessions. It was also different in that the leadership was elected directly by the participants. Direct elections. Abdella Yousef prevailed over and was elected over many others, including Abdella Ado, Somalia's former ambassador to the US, who came second in the election.  I attended the meeting: it was reported live.

Who else was elected?

Yes.Ali Mohammed Gedi, (Hawiya/Abgal), who happens to be the cousin of Sheik Sheriff Ahmed of the UIC, was elected Prime Minister. Sheik Sheriff Hussein, from Baidoa/Ashraff, was elected speaker of the parliament. Ismail Mahmoud Hirra, (Ishaq) Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. 

Ok.

The elected leaders were told that the international community would never recognize them as long as they were in Nairobi and that they had to go back to Somalia. So, a year ago [in 2005], they went to Jowhar and established a seat for the Transitional Government.

But from the beginning, there were differences between the Speaker of the Parliament and the Prime Minister. The Yemenis tried to resolve the differences and organized a meeting in Baidoa.  And, the two were able to reconcile their differences.  But while they were conducting their meeting, the boss of Jowhar, a certain Mohammed Teiri, sent them a message: don't bother to come back to my town; you are not welcome here!  That's how the government ended up being based in Baidoa.

Let's now talk about the Union of Islamic Courts.

Ok. After the total breakdown of order in Somalia, especially Mogadishu, people wanted to protect themselves.  The Islamic Courts were 13 courts, loyal to the Hawiya clan in Mogadishu. They administered the courts, the schools and the clinics. But Mogadishu was separated into 17 zones, with each zone having a capacity to generate electricity and with each clan with a warlord running it as a fiefdom. So you had two power centers, the Courts and the warlords and the courts eventually came into conflict with the warlords.

Sheriff Ahmed, who is 42, was educated in Sudan and Libya. The biggest mistake the Courts made is to bring to power Hassan Taher Awyes because he is from the Selefia mutshededa [a hardliner absolutist.]  He had a bad history�I remember the incidents of Wabi-Shebelle, Dire Dawa, Nazrate and the assassination attempt on the late Ethiopian transportation minister, Abdulmejid Hassan.

This is when he was in charge of Alitihad Alislami?

Yes.  It was Abdella Yousef, the current president, who hit them hard in Gelkaayo�

In Puntland?

Yes, actually Gelkaayo is interesting in that it was the birthplace of Abdella Yousef, Ziad Barre, General Aideed and Abdulkasem Salat. It is the heartland of the Darod.

Didn't Ethiopia help Abdella Yousef while he was chasing Al-Ittihad?

Actually, truth be told, Eritrea probably assisted more than Ethiopia in the destruction of Al-Ittihad.  In 95-96, it was Eritrea which was telling the world that there is a great danger of Islamic extremism stretching from Khartoum to Mogadishu. The PFDJ played a big role in the destruction of Alitihad AlIslami and its security officers, for example a colonel named Wedi Berhe, were pursuing and attacking it.  In 92-93, you have to remember that Ethiopia was allied with Aideed and it was the Eritrean commando units that were helping the United States in their excursion in Somalia.  Most of the advisors of the American were Eritreans.  In 92-94, Eritrean units were in Puntland�It was only in 96-97 that they started showing some change in their stands and gradually ended being allies of the Islamists�

We will discuss Eritrea's role later on. But it was only recently that UIC seemed invincible.  Even Puntland declared itself an Islamic state�

The reason for Puntland declaring a mini Islamic state is understandable. That was done just to protect itself from the UIC and to stop the talk on the Somali Street.   Otherwise, Puntland's General Adew is quite secular.  Incidentally, General Adew is from the same clan as President Abdella Yousef.

In your opinion, what accounts for the sudden collapse of the UIC?

There are several reasons.  First, they were too much in a hurry.   The Islamic Court attacked Baidoa, despite the fact that the government was recognized by the AU and the UN and despite the fact that there was already a resolution to send peacekeepers to Somalia. They shouldn�t have done that. Whatever they thought of it, they forgot the government had international legitimacy and, if you attack it, don't expect sympathy from the world. They had a winner-take-all attitude; they conditioned their peace talks on Ethiopian withdrawal. They sent out a clarion call to Islamists the world over�and militarily, excepting for few, they were mostly ill-trained militias.

Second, some of their leadership was in the most wanted list of the United States and Ethiopia.  

Third, their misguided decision to export the Somali case from IGAD to the Arab League was a bad decision. In all the years Somalia was going through its turmoil, it was IGAD, not the Arab League that was at least trying to solve their problem.  The introduction of the Arab League gave the conflict an African/Arab dimension.

Fourth, despite common perception, they really didn't represent the totality of the Somalia social segments. Sheriff is Hawiya/Abgal and Awyes is Hawye/Habergeder (nephew of Abdulla Kassem).  In my opinion, and this is from my contacts with people in Mogadishu, the ICU was predominantly from one clan and, in the end, it succumbed to the pressure of the clan elders: when they were told to turn in their weapons, they did. They met: they told them you are done. Surrender your equipment to the clan leaders.  In the end, in Somalia, it is always: hide under the jelabbiya of your clan.  

So the last stand is in Kismayo?

I don't know about that.  What I can tell you is that although the residents of Kismayo are from the same clan (Hawiya), they are from a different sub-clan, of Darod. And I don�t think they will withstand the attacks and hold to their positions if they have any intention of doing that.

You seem to rule out a counter attack or resurgence of the UIC.

In my opinion, that will not happen. The Islamic Court has lost politically and militarily. 

You don't think that people's nationalism will be aroused and they will resist Ethiopia's intervention? Can't Nationalism step in where religious mobilization has failed?

This is said by people who don't understand the reality of Somalia. Ethiopia has excellent relationships with 3 of the 4 major clans: The Darod, Ishaq, and Rahawen. Moreover, Ethiopia has repeatedly declared that its intentions and mission in Somalia are limited.

And you don't see a risk from a guerilla group launching attacks on Ethiopia?

To get to Ethiopia, you have to pass through the Darod, the Ishaq and the Rahawen, all clans with excellent relationship with Ethiopia and all hostile to the UIC. They will not let them pass. In my opinion, the gig is over. The whole thing is tribal, by disaffected Hawiyas.  And the government will be able to show them that it has 7 Hawiya officials. 

Doesn't Ethiopia really want a weak, fragmented Somalia which places it in direct contradiction with the nationalist Somali sentiment to be united and strong?

Ethiopia shares 1000km border with Somalia.  It is through Somalia that everything Ethiopia imports from the Middle East comes.  And one of the things that can come is terror.  This being the case, it is in the national interest of Ethiopia to have a strong Somali state in control of its borders. Ethiopia has hosted 8 Somali peace conferences and millions of dollars to bring this about. Somalia's future is always going to be influenced by Ethiopia. I don�t think a strong Somali government poses a threat to Ethiopia.  In fact, it prefers a strong government, which can enhance trade, security and minimize the headaches of opposition groups and terrorism. Ethiopia wants a favorable government, which is not the same as a weak government.

Some would say that by eliminating a threat in Somalia it has activated a bigger threat from within its own population, sympathetic Somalis of the Ogaden.

In my opinion, this is also not supported by facts. To begin with, the Somalis of Ogaden are part of the political fabric of Ethiopia. There are 25 parliamentarians from Ogaden in Ethiopia and its federal parliament. They enjoy self-rule.  Ethiopia is the only state that allows free travel with a Somali passport.  Across the border, they see what kind of life they can have, and they want no part of it. The secession movement does not have popular support. Add to it clan politics: the Ogaden clan is part of Darod, which has absolutely no relationship with the Islamic Courts.

Let's talk about the role of the PFDJ in this war. There have been accusations that there were 2000 Eritreans in Somalia and Meles Zenawi has claimed that some of the prisoners are Eritreans.  What is your opinion?

I can only talk about what I know. In September, October and November of this year [2006], the Eritrean government trained 1,000 to 1,500 Somalis around Assab and transported them to Somalia. Moreover, many Arab countries who didn't want to embarrass themselves with Ethiopia and US used Eritrea as a conduit for their plans in Somalia. There were Somali planes taking off from Assab and landing in Mogadishu, transporting trainers. I know there were Eritreans as recently as November.  And they sent the Oromo, Ogaden opposition groups there too. 

Awyes visited Eritrea at least 3 times.  Eritrea was definitely a senior partner in this war. In fact, some Somalis I've talked to believe that Isaias Afwerki betrayed them because he had promised to open a northern front, while the UIC would attack in the East and he failed to do that. They believed they will deal with a weakened and over-stretched army of Ethiopia; but the Eritrean government obviously didn�t do that.

Do you think an Ethiopia victorious in Somalia would be emboldened to attack Eritrea?

Attacking Eritrea is a far-fetched concern in relation to the development in Somalia. While in Somalia, Ethiopia had a legal cover because it was asked to help by the legitimate Transitional Somali Government, legally, Eritrea is a sovereign nation and an attack will not go that easy. The problems of the Eritrean regime are of a local nature. And it is the responsibility of the Eritreans people to deal with it as a dictatorship. At any rate, the elements necessary for the downfall of the regime in Eritrea has been completed on its own and it rests on Eritreans. The only thing worth comparing at this time is the downfall of Ziad Barre to the eventual downfall of Isaias Afwerki and the collapse of his regime.

What is your prediction of what will happen with the UIC? Its leadership? The rank and file? The Arabs and South Asians who answered the Jihad call?

The only place for the leadership of the UIC can go to is Eritrea. The rest will melt away to their clans. As for the Arabs, Somalis are naturally not extremists. There will be problems, but I don't think the clan elders will let the foreign Islamists to stay in their country because they know how disastrous their presence is to their country.

Thanks for your insight into Somalia

You are welcome!

[End] 

PICTURES: From Top to bottom. 1- with the president of Somaliland Tahir Ryale 2) with the Somali president Abdulla Yousef 3) with Ali Mahdi Mohammed, the first president after Ziad Barre. and 4) with the speaker of the Somali parliament Shekh Hassen Sheriff .

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