***image1:left***If we Eritreans counted years by animal themes, like the Chinese do, this year would be the Year of the Mule.  This year and every year for the last few years, at least 5, maybe 10, maybe 15, depending on who is doing the counting.  The mule is a stubborn animal�and we have been out-competing one another to see who can be more stubborn.  It wasn�t always so�for years, it was the Camel that defined us, another stubborn animal, but one that is less moody, and listens occasionally.  Here�s a romanticized view of the Camel from a contributor to Awate Forum:

Until the end, camels were the best fit transportation scheme during our revolution. They were the most loyal, obedient, patient, intelligent companions of our tegadalay. They knew the difference between torserawit and tegadalay. The[y] easily avoided enemy traps and detected enemy approaches from far away places. They knew how to hide under trees, on deserts etc. They learned izhaaf from our fighters and used it to hide under trees when jet fighters flew over. Izhaaf meant to crawl like a snake on the ground on your belly or on your back. At night, they traveled very quietly along the side of tegadelay and obeyed whenever instructed to stop or kneel down, to load/unload.- ShumBahri, �Memoires of The True Legacy of Jebha�, Awate Forum, 5/25/2006

I think this sentiment is universally held�which is why the camel is in Eritrea�s coat of arms.  But now, we have gotten more stubborn, moodier, and addicted to power symbolisms�which is why the mule is more apropos. 

Don�t get me wrong�I love some of our stubborn qualities.  In fact, I think it is one of the more endearing qualities about Eritreans, when done in moderation or the subject is benign.  Like tea.  But not politics.

Exhibit 1: Tea In America

Years ago, before Americans discovered coffee shops, Eritreans used to go to a bar or pastry shop to order tea.   And, invariably, they would get iced tea and, invariably, they would get mad.  All they had to do was add one word�hot�and get their order, hot tea.  But because to them tea means hot tea, they saw it as a matter of principle that the waiter should understand that tea means hot tea.  It was of no consequence to them that in America when people say tea, they mean iced tea.  

Now that there are proliferation of coffee shops, Eritreans still have a tea problem, but of a different sort. They will ask for tea, and when the waiter asks, �what kind?� they will get furious, �what do you mean what kind? Normal tea!�  What we call normal tea is black tea, and all my peeps have to learn is one word�black�but they won�t do it.  Black?  But my tea is red.  It becomes a process of elimination�mint tea? Black tea?  Green Tea?  This one? That one?  Veins popping, Eritreans will retort: Don�t you have normal Lipton tea?

Of course, green tea has better doses of caffeine, and the leaves, unlike the �normal� tea are not fermented and therefore healthier�.but good luck trying to talk my peeps into drinking green tea.  I won�t even discuss why people who are into fermented leaves drink tea when there are so many more pleasing beverages, if you are into the fermented kind.  

Exhibit 2: Politics Eritrean Style

Another endearing quality we have is that we Eritreans are completely obsessed with politics�but we are very bad at it. We?  Yeah, all of us�the President, the PFDJ, the EDA, the unaligned.  I know you may be offended, but that is not the intent: it is my diagnosis, that is all.  We really are quite poor at practicing politics.  Politics to Eritreans is like basketball is to the Oakland Warriors�we go through the motions, but we stink at it.   We blame the coaches, the referee, the game itself�but never ourselves and our stubborn nature.  We would all flunk the elevator test.

If you worked in sales, you probably have heard of the elevator test.  (Note to the Brits: elevator is what you guys call a lift.)  You have a product or a service to sell and by some happy coincidence, the person you need to make the pitch to is in the same elevator with you, going to his office on the 30^th floor.  The question is: can you make your pitch�describe the benefits and features of your product/service--before you reach the destination?  If you can, you are a trained salesperson; if you can�t, it is back to the sales boot camp for you.

This doesn�t interest me at all, you say, because I hate sales, salespeople and selling.  But that�s where you are mistaken, you stubborn Eritrean, because everything is selling. For example, I am trying to sell you this column in exchange for your time and, something even more precious: an open mind.   Please excuse the absence of visual aids.

Politics is sales�its salesmen are called politicians and cadres.  Some of their techniques are effortless because it is God-given: they have charisma, and they ooze it.   Clinton had it; Isaias had (has?) it; Said Saleh had it.  Add your own list of people with magnetic quality.  Charisma is just a magnetic pull�they better have something to say when they draw you.   Others, the political cadres, have to work harder selling the benefit of their product.  In Eritrea, the one benefit they sold was independence, but we were more attracted by a feature: the language. You mean there is a good possibility, a near certainty in fact, that our entire generation will die before we see this magical, free country you speak up but, in the mean time, if we bought your product we could master the language like you do?   Where do I sign up? 

I have a friend, a former ELF cadre, who confessed to me that a lot of the words the cadres used in their political orientations were made up on the spot.  The year political orientations classes and seminars began in Eritrea were precisely the date that the Zemene Beqli�the Era of the Mule was born.  But that is my calendar.

Consider: Tigrigna as spoken by our elders is a beautiful language that expresses ideas and actions using the humblest qualifiers: gega yklealey de�a ember (If I am not mistaken), neAKa do mikri adliyuka (you are too wise to need counsel), seb tesaeenu�mber nhnas bqAt yeblnan (the more qualified folks were not available) and that rare word that has now been virtually made illegal: indiEE (I don�t know.)  The speaker would communicate humility, humbleness and ambivalence even on subjects that are their expertise.  This would invite discussion, debate, compromise and everybody would leave with a sense that they contributed.   Now contrast this with Zemene Beqli:  the cadres would tell you the most fantastic, impossible to verify stories with dead certainty because izi�kwa sciensawi haqi iyu (this is a scientific truth.)  And they are still doing it.  You better not argue with sciensawi haqi because that will expose you for the superstitious relic that you are. 

Politics PIA Style

I have two competing theories about President Isaias Afwerki: one, he is a true believer, a revolutionary who actually believes that everything is wrong in the world and it is up to him to change it.   Now, this is not as crazy as it sounds because this is a common phenomenon in politics.  It is only the radicals that can change the world.  There are three problems with radicals.  One is that to say that only radicals change the world does not mean that all radicals change the world.  The second is that change is not always for the better and quite often, their change is disastrous.  The third is that a radical has no room for uncertainty or IndiEE and will pursue his ideas with vigor, right or wrong, to the bitter end�even if he has to take his co-travelers to the edge of the cliff.

Africa is littered with the failed experiments of the zealous. I am sure you know all of them, but if you need a reminder, pick up Martin Meredith�s The Fate of Africa.  (Public Affairs, NY, NY.)  Some of these zealous experiments crashed at take off�others were declared failures decades later.  Nkrumah�s concept of a United States of Africa; Nasser�s Arab Socialist Revolution; Senghor�s negritude hit the wall of reality as soon as they were launched; others took decades, countless coups and the act of a merciful God�calling his errant creature�to relieve Africa of its zealous sons.

Remember the pledges we made to ourselves that we Eritreans would avoid Africa�s fate?  Not only have we not avoided it but we have gone around Africa, cherry-picked all the bad ideas, and we are now trying them in Eritrea. 

Wefri Warsay Yeka�alo?  Remember Kenyatta�s Harambe and Nyrere�s Arusha Declaration which were announced with much fanfare to bring about self-reliance?  Total disasters.  The state capitalism we have in Eritrea was pioneered in Africa by Cote d�Ivoire, and we all know what a grand success that was.  How about a system that is designed with no number two�no direct line of success?  Yeah, Felix Houphoet Boigny explained that in his 80s, when he was still in power: �there is no number two, three or four.�  Now, a civil war.   How about Isaias� obsession with the problems of the world when our house is burning?   Already pioneered by Zambia�s Kaunda who devoted a lot of his time to the problems of the Middle East, Korea and Germany.  Isaias is just the latest and, if we are lucky, he will pull a Nyerere on us: in his 70s, he will say his experiment was entirely wrong and apologize.

This is assuming he is a true believer.  

My other theory is that he knows it is all a temporary show for a permanent need: preserving power.  It is politically prudent to be a hardliner now, so he has become a hardliner.   At some point, when the hardliners are no longer of use, the version of Isaias who  knows that politics is a chess game, and reversals and re-directions are normal, may emerge.  Moammer Khaddaffi, now Isaias� best friend, was once a reliable ally of Mengistu and was recruited in the Sixth Offensive to obliterate the armed struggle. The hardliners will be ok, as long as he gives them a new slogan to chant.

Which one is the real Isaias?  Is it the true believer or the pragmatic actor?  I don�t know�and neither does the artist Osman Abrar. (Listen to Tsebah.) But either version is, gega ykle�aley dea ember, quite bad for Eritrea. I think that is a scientific truth.

Politics � PFDJ Style

Isaias may be an actor or a true believer but what is indisputable is that he sure has surrounded himself by True Believers.  Zemehret, Yemane Gebremeskel, Fozia Hashem, Wedi Kassa, Abdella Jaber�Holy cow: they�ve got to be the greatest collection of inflexible hardliners, sloganeers, and dead-enders since the Saddam Hussein cabinet convened.   Every movement has its left and right wing, its moderates and extremists, its yin and yang�but not with PFDJ.

Whatever the game is, these guys always blame the ref and the rules of the game.  In the latest installment presented by Shaebia.org, the subject was human rights.  I don�t know if the purpose is to bring about gradual change or to stall change by having the ever-hopeful say, �at least they are talking about it� (I suspect the latter.)  But once again, the discussions allow no room for the obvious�to review the tape of the game and understand why you lost the game, and to change so you can win.  Instead, they blame the ref (America, Europe, UN) and the rules of the game (inconsistency, arbitrary imposition of rules), then they announce that they actually won.

This is depressing�in the sense that the quality of the discussion is not one step more elevated than the one you can have in any coffee shop where Eritreans congregate. (Excepting for Professor Asmerom who tries to educate the hardliners about how the world really works, but then throws in red meat once in a while to remind them he is a carnivore, too.)  

Why is it that, 15 years after being in power, they do not understand that what they are complaining about are not exceptions but part of the game, since the game was invented?  Not only part of the game, but a defining feature of the game?  That America and Europe place their national interest above human rights is news? That they show favoritism if it advances their interest is exceptional? Of course it is unfair, but that is how the game is played.

The hardliners seem to think that Eritrea�s foreign policy is all about bringing changes to the rule of the game when, in fact, it should be all about how does Eritrea understand the game,  play the game and win the game?

As for domestic policy, there is none�because it is all now an extension of foreign policy, which all hinges on Badmme.   We won�t improve human rights because by doing so it will appear that we have succumbed to our foreign critics.  We won�t open up the political process because if we do so, it may appear that we are bending to foreign pressure.

So what we have with PFDJ politics is this: a domestic policy which is entirely dependent on a flawed foreign policy.    

From the dialogue, it is clear that the hardliners are stung by the criticism; and it is clear that they know what they have to do to reverse course.  It is also clear that they are too stubborn to do it.  They will just wait�for something.

When the PFDJ big wigs are expressing their skepticism of political pluralism, singing the praises of one vanguard party state, denouncing calls to improve their human rights, praising the efficiency of their state capitalism, surely, surely, they know that they have not invented anything�but are copying experiments in Africa and Asia which have more numbers in the failed than succeeded column?  Folks, sooner or later, you will go on to meet your maker�do you want to leave behind a Senegal or a Tanzania?

Politics � Opposition Style

We are back at the elevator and we find ourselves face-to-face with somebody we are trying to win over to our side.  We are in selling mode and we have limited time. 

And this is the cacophony of our message, with different messengers interjecting their grievances:

Since 2001�

(correction, since 1972),

�the dictatorial regime�

(correction the chauvinist Tigrayan regime)

�of�

(interjection: don�t forget the crusading regime)

�Isaias Afwerki has arrested parliamentarians�

(interjection: they really were not parliamentarians.  Weren�t they arresting others with him?)

�and suspended a ratified constitution�

(interjection: what constitution?  That exclusionary document.  The problems go much beyond that),

�we in the opposition�

(interjection: please don�t speak on my behalf; as of yesterday, I don�t belong to your group)

�have been standing against the arrest of the journalists, the elderly, and members of the minority religions�

(interjection: I have to say I agree with the government in its stand against CIA religions.�.)

�whose churches were closed in 2002�

(interjection: how about the Muslims who disappeared in 1994?)

�We call on the people of Eritrea to stand up and fight for their rights peacefully�

(interjection: when was a dictator defeated peacefully)

�and we call on the Eritrean Defense Forces�

 (interjection: you mean tools of the regime)�.   

We lose the interest of whoever is listening by the time we get to the 3^rd floor.   The reason?  Because we are stubborn and blind to the facts.  This column once provided data from www.nationmaster.com which may be worth republishing: Demographics of Eritrea: 

Population: 4,135,933 (July 2000 est.)

Age structure:
0-14 years: 43% (male 888,573; female 883,939)
15-64 years: 54% (male 1,104,082; female 1,122,683)
65 years and over: 3% (male 69,518; female 67,138) (2000 est.)

Using a sophisticated engineering program known as WAG (wild ass guess), I was able to extrapolate from the above data that:

50% of the population was born after 1991, meaning they have no other government to compare PFDJ to:

75% of the population does not remember or barely remembers the ELF, 

100% of the population is fed negative information of the ELF and all opposition groups.

Now, this being the case, the only message that could have any hope of resonance is: We have a ratified constitution that has been shelved and we demand its implementation.  Every grievance we have can be addressed on the basis of the constitution: political prisoners, religious persecution; arrests without trial; political monopoly of the PFDJ; absence of free press; return of refugees; land re-allocation; restructuring the type of government we want.  Everything.

The added advantage of this is that almost everybody remembers that we have a ratified constitution.  But even here, its resonance is limited--it has been 10 years and it, too, is in danger of being forgotten. 

Yes, yes, I have my biases and huge objections with many aspects of the Constitution.  But. But. But. But in politics, to speak about old problems is to speak of insoluble problems. When we talk about dinosaur politics, we lose people�s interest�the most we can get is a sympathetic head nod: ain�t that a bitch.  Life is not fair.  Another insoluble problem.  Next! 

But Then Again�

I have a theory that an excellent preparation to be a politician is to be a sports fan, particularly team sports. I will also bet that, not coincidentally, not a solitary member of our political elite, opposition or government, is a fan of sports.   Since it is NBA and World Cup season, let�s use them as examples. 

First rule: in sports, you learn that talent is not distributed evenly�Pele�s team mates could spend longer hours practicing and training but they could never be as good as him.  There is one King James, one Michael Jordan.  So, sometimes the only slot available is number two.  Accept it. 

Second rule: if it is a team sports, it won�t matter how great a player you are, your team won�t win unless you have solid support from your team mates. (Tiger will still win when you change his caddies, but that is a solo sport.)

Third rule: not everything is within your control�sometimes it is the flip of a coin: Costa Rica will play Germany. 

Fourth rule: review of previous games is critical for assessment and continuous improvement. 

Fifth rule: coaches are indispensable and you better be coach-able (that is why Kobe Bryant is watching, not playing in, the Finals.)  

Sixth rule: how you strategize for one opponent is entirely different from how you do it for another.  Be flexible.

Seventh rule: there are rules to the game but they are not uniformly enforced:  a referee will turn a blind eye when King James is traveling but he will call it if done by any average player.  The choices are not rule of the jungle and rule of law.  There is rule of the pavement, rule of exceptions.  Accept it.

And finally, and this is something my old friend Mobae Afwerki used to point out when talking about the Home Team during the war years, you gotta make room for the intangible.  Even when there is absolutely no change in the rules, the players, the coaches, the refs or the game, teams playing in their home field/turf/court are favored to win over the guests. The only difference is the intangible�the roar of a cheering crowd.  

What's that? No, thanks for asking, but the home team does not cheer for its own players when one group of its players starts punching another group of its own players.   It booes its own team, actually. 

But then again, remember the disclaimer above that �we Eritreans are completely obsessed with politics�but we are very bad in it.�   That certainly includes the writer of this column. So why should you get political advice from someone who is not completely free of the mule syndrome?   So let the cacophonies of disharmonious sound continue�just don�t order me tea.  I will pass.  

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