INTRODUCTION 

The people of Eritrea have paid too much to win independence. Lately, the nation has also lost many beloved ones to protect its sovereignty from foreign adversaries. Many families are yet to be told of the whereabouts of their loved ones and they have also not been given the chance to mourn for the missing ones. The mobilized citizens have also not yet returned back to start rebuilding their lives. 

After centuries of colonial rule, independence war, the people deserve a breath of fresh air of democracy, peace and self-rule. The experience of the last few years has shown that what has been achieved thorough great sacrifice is being threatened as we are in a state of political, economic and social crises. Hence should we keep silent and leave our future at the mercy of selfish politicians. It is our opinion that we have to speak up and get ready to lay the groundwork for the security of our children. The 50s' and 60s' generation taught us to stand for freedom and independence and it is our responsibility to teach the next generation the rule of law. The absence of rule of law means dictatorship, corruption, nepotism, repression, persecution, poverty, darkness and eventually chaos. This could finally lead to state collapse, which in turn could cause mass violence and internal conflict.  

The Citizen's Initiative for the Salvation of Eritrea, (Sept. 25, 2002), and Seyoum Tesfaye�s (Sept. 4, 2002) critical analyses in understanding the serious dangers that the nation is facing, have done a wonderful job in addressing the issue. We believe that this piece of work will complement  what they have already written by furnishing first hand information from Eritrea. What makes our work different from those mentioned above is that we try to make a scholarly analysis and focus on what should be done now in order to avert possible mass violence and not just where the nation will be heading after the transitional period.  

Purpose of the Article  

The purpose of this article is not to support one party and oppose another, rather, as citizens of the nation, to raise awareness on where the nation is heading. It is not to repeat history but to learn from the past, study the present and get some insight into the future. It is not to seek vengeance and conflict but to live in tolerance, mutual respect and harmony.  

Although no nation can afford civil war, Eritrea has suffered more than most countries and cannot afford to fall into internal conflict. The rationale behind this initiative is the concern that there may be a break out of internal conflict in Eritrea if the situation continues as it is. This is because, as observed in most countries, internal conflict is caused by state collapse not vice-versa (Baker & Weller, 1998).  

Therefore, in this article we will try to assess whether the nation is in danger of state collapse and mass violence. If that is the prognosis then we will try to suggest possible means of avoiding mass violence so as to ensure a peaceful transition of power to a democratic leadership that protects the rule of law. 

Methodology 

In our analysis of the current situation in Eritrea, we have used the twelve indicators which have been developed by Pauline H. Baker and Angeli E Weller (1998) to diagnose the deteriorating health of a nation and to assess whether a conflict or a state collapse will happen. In addition the analysis is based on commonly known facts and observations, while additional primary data has been collected through informal conversation with selected individuals without making them aware of this study. It is anticipated that this body knowledge will help us test our findings.  

DEFINITIONS AND CONCEPTS 

Before trying to answer whether Eritrea is in danger of state collapse and mass violence, let's see the definitions of some key concepts relevant to the case as defined by Baker and Weller.  

Internal conflict. It refers to any conflict or dispute based on communal or social group identity, including, region, language, religion, ethnicity, clan or some combination of this. A conflict can be primordial-endemic to a society or people, or instrumental - a product of elite manipulation.  

The authors strongly believe that conflict based on social groups is not a major problem in Eritrea.  On the contrary the main strength of the Eritrean people to win independence under the leadership of the EPLF and subsequently defend the sovereignty of the nation was unity. Therefore, any possible future conflict in this nation can only be a result of manipulation of the ruling group, who appear to be trying to stay in power at any cost.  

Collapsing State: a state refers to a political entity that has legal jurisdiction and physical control over a defined territory, the authority to make collective decisions for a permanent population, a monopoly on the legitimate use of force and an internationally recognized government that interacts or has the capacity to interact in formal relations with other such entities. A state must perform minimum functions for the public and maintain social cohesion.  

A collapsing state is, therefore, one that is losing physical control of its territories, forfeiting the authority to make collective decisions for the national population, lacks a monopoly on the legitimate use of force and cannot interact in formal relations with other states as a fully functioning member of the international community. It may become a repressive or predatory regime that is in conflict with significant segment of the population. A collapsing state may disintegrate functionally or physically.  

In the Eritrean case we can say that it is the government that is in conflict with a significant majority of the population; it is repressive, predatory and is in the process of cracking at its core. 

Sustainable security: 

Sustainable security refers to the ability of a society to solve its own problems peacefully without an external force, an administrative or military presence. When assessing whether a society is in danger of mass violence and state collapse, one has to assess if that society has the capacity for sustainable security.  

A standard measure of sustainable security is, (among other things), the existence of the following four core institutions. 

1.      A competent domestic police force and correction system,

2.      An efficient and functioning civil service or professional bureaucracy,

3.      An independent judicial system that works under the rule of law,

4.      A professional and disciplined military accountable to a legitimate civilian authority.  

These four institutions must be autonomous, that is not dominated or perceived to be dominated by competing parties, factions or groups in society. In the Eritrean case, these four institutions (that is the police, civil service, judiciary and the military) are not only dominated but are under the total control of the ruling elite.  

The Police Force 

The Eritrean police force is one of the poorest institutions in the nation. Although experts using international standards have not measured the effectiveness of this institution, nevertheless it remains a very weak and incompetent institution. The ability for building its capacity and getting the necessary experience is at present remote as the task of ensuring law and order in the cities has been taken over by the military. The weakness could also be attributed mainly due to the lack of skills and absence of accountability.  

Civil Service 

The absence of rule of law in general, lack of effective regulations and the lack of skills in particular make the civil service inefficient and less professional. Since 1995, the Government of Eritrea, with the objective of making the civil service lean and efficient, has undertaken two phases of streamlining the bureaucracy by shedding staff and providing several training programs to enhance staff capacity. Due to the fact that decision making is top heavy, we can safely say that the civil service has been paralyzed. It may not equally apply to all areas of the civil service, as some are much worse than others. For example, the land and housing issue is getting more complicated, transportation problems in the capital and other towns are getting worse, while the shortage of facilities such as telephone, water, electricity is increasing. Every one of us might have met one or more investors who have canceled their investment decisions frustrated by the bureaucratic system. 

Judicial System 

As to the judicial body, it is also one of the most suppressed and despised by the government. The President of the Supreme Court has been fired and has not yet been replaced. Political prisoners and critics are jailed for years without due process of law, while the special court composed of a few military officers with no significant training in the field revises court verdicts. 

The Military 

Although the Government is trying to create a professional army, so far the military is largely a people�s army, which is a legacy of the armed struggle. Currently the military is composed of three groups: Tegadelti (former independence fighters), the Warsai, (national service members indefinitely held in the army), and the reserve army composed of militia of age group between 40-50, who were mobilized during the conflict with Ethiopia.  

There is no cohesion between these groups and there is no respect of the Military top brass by the Warsai as they see them as an extension of the repressive machinery. In addition the lack of clarity of the Warsai -Yikaalo Campaign and the perception by the youth that it is a slave labor force has already created tension in the army. Desertion is increasing by the day as the faith in the leadership has crumbled. 

Institutions 

Other state institutions that are also important for ensuring sustainable Government include an elected legislature, an independent press, an election commission, political parties and local government. However the Chairman of the National Assembly, the President of the country, easily manipulates the legislature in the State of Eritrea. The flourishing private press was shut down and all of the editors and critical writers of the Government were jailed in September 2001. Elections were promised but never seem to be realized.  A commissioner of the election was appointed but is still not functional after almost a year. The same applies to the political parties. Promising and breaking promises has become a distinguishing characteristic of the Eritrean government. Promising is also a tool for easing internal and external pressure for the government. 

The Root Causes (Historical Indicators)  

1.      Lack of transparency and accountability: this is the legacy of the struggle for independence. There was devotion to the liberation struggle by almost everyone and blind trust of the leadership among members was prevalent. Due to lack of resources and facilities, decisions implemented through paper work were minimal hence many of the military and administrative operations were based on oral communication. It is possible that because of the war years the issues of transparency and accountability were not given priority, however when the nation became an independent state, these issues were not critically analyzed and improved but the government preferred to maintain its secretive behavior.

2.      Legacy of Polarization: "A negative consequence of the legacy of colonialism and the liberation struggle on the Eritrean psyche is the development of a zero-sum or win-lose culture, which defines victory of one party as the vanquishing and defeat of the other party.  This has brought about a culture of mistrust and suspicion where members of organized groups brandish their refusal to discuss, dialogue and compromise as a strength.  This culture scorns compromise, promotes an attitude of polarization, exclusion, and a paternalistic attitude where the �victor� seeks to impose solutions on the �vanquished.�  Instead of adjusting their values and priorities to address the wants and needs of the people, fronts and political groups have persisted in wanting to mould the Eritrean people and nation into their ideological image of a 'people' and a 'nation'.� (Citizen's Initiative For the Salvation of Eritrea Sep 25, 2002).

3.      Irresponsible Governance:  "The government of Eritrea is an unjust system that is at odds with the values of constitutionalism and democracy and, thus, is without legitimacy.  It is not responsive to the needs and aspirations of the people and is indifferent to any sense of accountability towards them.  It promotes chauvinism, militarism, and parochial interests. It is wanton violator of civil liberties and basic human rights of Eritreans. It escalates minor differences into major ones and fundamental political disagreements to violent conflicts.  It instills fear, confusion and suspicion among the citizens. The government�s behavior continues to endanger the safety and security of the country and its callous behavior demonstrates a betrayal of the promises of the liberation struggle for which thousands of dear lives were sacrificed." (Ibid) 

INDICATORS OF STATE COLLAPSE.  

As has been indicated earlier, unlike the popular perception state collapse is the cause of internal conflict. The factors that foment political decay at the center include, poor governance, institutional degeneration, corruption, and most of all destructive leadership. When the center dissolves, factionalization increases and loyalties shift from a state to more traditional local leaders that offer psychic satisfaction and physical protection. Unless the process is reversed it may result in communal violence, ethnic cleansing and genocide. As a state fails, people seek security and attempt to advance their interests through traditional or historical social bonds. Ample opportunities exist in this kind of environment for factional leaders to play on group fears and loyalties, using narrow nationalism as a means of pursuing and holding on to power. However to end domination by factionalized elites and to restore public confidence in a system of governance that goes beyond communal interests an organized democratic leadership is required. 

To assess the potential for mass violence, one should look not only at evidence of rising communal hostility but also at wider societal trends associated with state decay. This is particularly true in societies that lack the institutional infrastructure or leadership to cope with crises.  

In this analysis we try to examine the social, economic, military and political variables, taking into account the particular circumstances of the country. We have also used the twelve societal indicators  that appear frequently in collapsing states. It does not necessarily mean that all the indicators should appear in a collapsing state but the greater the number and intensity of these indicators, the higher the risk or internal conflict and violence.  

In the following table the twelve indicators have been tabulated and have tried to measure their intensity as high, medium, low or none by assessing the Eritrean situation. The analysis that follows is based on widely known facts, which are known by almost everyone and are facts that no one dares to mention them in public. 

ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT SITUATION BASED ON THE TWELVE INDICATORS

Political / Military Indicators 

1.      Criminalization and or de-legitimization of the state.

a.      Massive and endemic corruption or profiteering. This is very common in the military. The Defense Minister's official salary is about Nfa. 4500 (approx. $300) and it is obvious that the salaries of the other military officers is obviously lower. However, most of the officers have built villas and apartments, which are beyond their means of income. It is a known fact that pass papers ('menkesakesi') are sold in tens of thousands; shops, clubs and commercial farms have been established in every army unit where the commanders take the proceeds. It is also true that any citizen under the age of 40 cannot pass checkpoints of towns without a pass paper. However, if one can afford to pay, he/she can be given a safe passage from the capital Asmara to the neighboring countries through the network of corrupt officers. Despite the chain of army brigades and divisions lined up along the Sudanese border, tens of thousands of young men and women have crossed through the border. Moreover, some even have gone through Asmara Airport even though they have not fulfilled their military service. This shows the extent and organization of corruption that pervades in the ruling elites - the military officers. 

b.      There is resistance by the ruling elite to transparency, accountability and political representation. There is mockery of transparency in the system and accountability is the most feared concept in the country today. As there is no rule of law, the whims and wishes of the leader is the law at every level of the system. At the moment, political representation is not a priority at all. What matters for the government is to extend its stay in power.

c.       Widespread loss of popular confidence in state institutions and processes: the judicial system is paralyzed after the executive fired the president of the Supreme Court for complaining about sustained interference. The legislative body has no power to question the President's decision, let alone challenge him.  

Unless they are pro-government, public demonstrations are outlawed in this country. Any organized complaint is considered as a strike and is given a strong warning. The brutal crackdown of the war disabled fighters of Mai-Habar a few years ago, and the mass punishment of university students last year, are worth mentioning. After the war broke out many people under the age of 40 were voluntarily going to serve in the army accepting it as national duty, but now let alone to go voluntarily, the army units could not keep their members on duty. The recent round-up operation (Giffa) were meant to capture those who have gone away-without-leave. 

d.      Growth of crime syndicates linked to ruling elites: The ruling party runs several "sister companies" involved in every sector under the giant Hidri Trust Fund. Its establishment and business activities have never been made public even through the government media. It is said that the purpose of these companies is to stabilize the market and boost the national reconstruction program. The effectiveness of these companies, however, is controversial. Rather it is widely believed that they don�t pay taxes and are engaged in unfair competition in the market. Since there is no accountability and transparency in the whole government system, nor can there be transparency in those organizations. They are there to serve the political agenda of a few individuals.  

e.      The other major concern is that nepotism and regional sentiment are growing in the army and the ruling elite. Such divisions were totally unacceptable during the independence struggle. Nonetheless, it seems that the ruling elite and a times those who oppose them are  trying to exploit these sensitive regional differences for political motives. Therefore, if this trend is not reversed, it could lead to internal conflict. 

2.      Progressive deterioration of public service   

This indicator is concerned about the decreasing level of services and basic state functions, which is meant to protect citizens and provide essential services. The frequent blackout of electricity, shortage and dirtiness of water supply, shortage of telephone lines and inadequate provision of transportation, long waiting queues in banks and other services are good examples of public service deterioration.  

It is to be expected that there will be shortages in some essential services considering that Eritrea is a poor country, however we are talking about the deterioration of services from the relatively acceptable level it had reached up to the year 1998. 

Moreover, the quality of education is getting poorer and poorer. According to the reports of the Ministry of Education, about 52% of the 7^th grade participants during the 2002 academic year have got grades below 50% (ERNA, Sept. 18, 2002). Although this requires an in depth study, we believe that the main cause of this failure could be attributed mainly to two factors: the low motivation of students to study and the low morale and lack of incentive on the teachers' side. The students could not see the value of education as they have seen that their elder brothers and sisters had ended up in the military after completion of their high schools and colleges and still could not see when they would ever be demobilized.  

On the other hand, all schoolteachers under 40, like all others engaged in other occupations have either gone for military service or are forced to work without pay and are overworked. One can imagine the extent of financial difficulties that these people face with their families, since the cost of living is increasing day by day, and they only receive a monthly allowance of 500Nfa. Thus, it is natural that such school teachers are dissatisfied and de-motivated. This situation equally applies to the health and other public services in the country.  

The government counts improvements in the health service by the number of health facility buildings constructed and other hardware procured. However, unlike other professions, which get replacement of new graduates, the number of doctors, is diminishing, as there is no medical school to supply new graduates. Some leave the nation never to return while others shrink in number due to death etc.  

3.     Suspension or arbitrary application of the rule of law and widespread violation human rights.  

Needless to say the state is turning to authoritarian, dictatorial military rule than ever before. A few Army Generals, who are loyal and close to the President are holding most of the key administrative and military positions, and other lower ranking officers are being appointed down to all civilian local administration posts.  

The implementation of the ratified constitution in 1997 has been indefinitely postponed; the nascent private press has been shut down and thus no room has been left for democratic institutions. Arbitrary arrest and disappearance of citizens has become a common phenomenon. For detailed information see Amnesty�s Report. 

4.      Security apparatus operates as a "state within a state" 

After the war with Ethiopia ended, the whole military force has been engaged in local security.  One of the most trusted Generals (General Gerezgiher - Wuchu) is in charge of Operations Region 3, which encompasses much more than half of the country including most of the populated areas such as Asmara. General Samuel, General Teklay Habteslassie and General Filipos are the "supreme leaders" of the remaining areas - Assab, (partially) Debub, and Tessenei regions respectively. All matters of security, administration and military issues are under their control.  

5.      Rise of factionalized elites.  

The rise of factionalized elites is not very obvious at the moment, although the local Government administrators are being replaced by Military officers and the state is heading towards the formation of a military Government. There is also wide allegation that recent Military assignments have no ethnic sensitivity and regional representation. This could finally result in resentment by the local (under-represented and less privileged groups), which could lead to the rise of factionalized elites.  

Once the President and the military tighten their grip on the administration, nothing could prevent them from manipulating the system and making fake elections in the future. The Military can also organize a coup d�etat once they realize that the existence of the leadership is heavily dependent on them. 

6.      Intervention of other state or external political actors.  

At present there is no clear evidence for the interference of external political actors. Since Eritrea is weak on the diplomatic front and has disappointed the would be foreign partners, the only intervention so far is the reduction of bilateral and multilateral aid and not direct intervention.  Thus, this indicator is at present almost non-existent or very low, however once the state weakens further foreign interference might increase and should be expected.  

Nevertheless it should not be forgotten that there is concern that the Ethiopian Government might want to intervene by taking advantage of the internal crises. 

Economic Indicators 

7.      Uneven economic development along group lines

The economic indicator can be observed from different angles:

a.      Civil servants: the current salary scale was developed when the exchange rate of the dollar was approximately 7 Nakfa. Recently the exchange rate had jumped to 24 Nakfa to the dollar, but had decreased to 21.50 Nakfa due to temporary intervention by the Government in the market. Hence the price of commodities has gone up astronomically and has severely hurt the salaried citizens, specifically the civil servants.

b.      Of the Eritrean population, that are better of today, are those families that have one or more members of their family abroad. It is obvious that significant portion of the national income comes from remittance, hence those families that have no remittance support are the most affected by  inflation.  

8.      A sharp and/ or economic decline 

The fact that the exchange rate had jumped more than 300%, from 7.20 Nakfa to around 24 Nakfa to the dollar has meant a rapid rise in the price of imported commodities. This is compounded by the fact that there is serious shortage of skilled and semi-skilled workers, which means that internally produced goods are in sharp decline.  

As is well known the nation's main economic asset is its manpower. As the productive workforce under 40 is held in barracks and camps, it is ludicrous to speak about economic activities. As the economic life of the country is import-based prices are steadily rising and inflation galloping and hence the people are facing serious economic hardship.  

It is feared that the economic situation will get worse as prices will continue to rise and shortage of power and other necessities could be frequent and consequently the purchasing power of the citizens will understandably decrease. How long can the people sustain this is a matter of speculation. 

Although it is difficult to show the percentage of the economy under the State/PFDJ control, there is no question that it has a monopoly power on every aspect of the economy. The government has recently started a new war against the private sector. It has held the business community as a scapegoat for the cause of the current economic crisis in the nation. In the most recent cabinet meeting, the government has drawn a new plan to further strengthen its grip on the economy. It has called its new economic policy "Government led market economy".  

The control of the economy has been carried out through Institutions like the Red Sea Trading Corporation, which forms part of  Hidri Trust Fun. However recent revelations suggest that due to the new political and economic dimensions a few selected individuals have come to the forefront. These individuals are competing with the Hidri Trust Fund companies and related economic institutions of the PFDJ. An inner elite on the top echelon of the Government directly controls these clandestine companies. For example companies such as Alpha Travel Agency which is a front company is run by a demobilized fighter of the nineties (Nai Tesea). Recently as part of the supposed drive to stabilize the exchange rate of the dollar to the Nakfa a foodstuff importer has been supported to dish out dollars and sell at substantially reduced rates from the black market rate. What is surprising is that the drive to stabilize the market is not done through the knowledge of a proper institution such as the Commercial or the National Bank of Eritrea.  It is yet another coup by selected individuals into the institutionalized workings of the PFDJ�s companies.  

Social Indicators 

9.      Monitoring demographic pressure 

The government in order to reduce pressures of rural people migrating to the urban areas has built schools, clinics and other basic facilities such as water supply and other utilities.

However the fact that the country had deportees of about 70,000 people from Ethiopia, mostly settled in Asmara and environs and limited returnees from Sudan have caused demographic pressure especially in Asmara.  This demographic pressure and poor land policy has caused severe shortages of housing. 

Eritrea�s urban land especially in Asmara has become the most expensive asset (possibly in the world compared to its GDP) and the land allocation policy is the most controversial issue in the country. The main cause of the exaggerated rise of the value of land is, obviously, the increasing demand for it and its restricted supply.   

10. Massive movement of refugees or internally displaced persons creating complex humanitarian emergencies

Massive movement of people and internal displacement have only happened due to the war but there are concerns though that there will be migration of people to the urban areas due to mismanagement and poor land distribution policy of the government.  

11. Legacy of vengeance seeking group grievance or group paranoia. 

At present there is no clear evidence for vengeance seeking group or who have group paranoia. Thus, this indicator is at present almost non-existent or very covert, however once the state weakens further it might increase.  

12. Chronic and sustained human flight 

�Brain drain" of professionals, the flight of intellectuals and political dissidents fearing persecution or repression has been increasing recently. The number of ambassadors, consular officers, other professionals and intellectuals not coming back after foreign travel is rising from time to time. For this reason the government has banned all foreign travels to public servant unless it is approved and vetted by the President�s Office. Such effort is, however, futile. More and more people including university students, soldiers and other professionals are still crossing borders through other routes including the Ethiopian boarders, the former adversary. 

CONCLUSION 

It is believed that Eritrea is in a state of political, economic and social crisis. The experience of the last few years has shown that what has been achieved thorough great sacrifice is being threatened and civil liberties have been eroded. It can be concluded that the Eritrean government is in conflict with a significant majority of the population. 

In our analysis of the current situation in Eritrea we have tried to examine the social, economic, military and political variables, taking into account the particular circumstances of the country using the twelve societal indicators examined above.  It should be mentioned that this is a preliminary study, which is meant to help analyze the current situation of Eritrea that needs to be enhanced by further in-depth study.    

Although the degree or intensity of all the indicators were not very high, the greater number and intensity of these indicators show that Eritrea is in great danger of internal conflict which may lead to possible violence, unless remedies are put in place.  

When we analyze the current situation using the conceptual framework approach, the country can be considered to lie between stages two and three (Figure 1).  September 2001 could be considered to be a major turning point after the government decided to crackdown on critics and imprisoned the private press. 

It should also be mentioned that it is not too late to march along the path of non-violence, although all indications show that there is intransigence on the part of the Government and would not likely give in to a democratic transition to power. 

The detail follow up of what needs to be done will be subject of another contribution.

Concerned citizens
October 7, 2002