Tyrannies collapse either like a torpedoed ship or an aging bridge: abruptly or gradually.  The PFDJ is sinking and it is sinking the way of an aging and rickety bridge: with bits and pieces breaking off and creaky noises warning of the impending collapse.  When it does fall, only the ones who chose to be uninformed or delusional will be surprised. Meanwhile, the opposition is building itself up, piece by piece, also accompanied by the orchestra of the groans and whining of some elements.

Of late, the organization has been specializing in that rare art of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.  It has expanded its franchise of ineptitude from the fields of war and diplomacy to foreign investment.  Once again, it was given a golden opportunity�a manna from heaven--to bring back the doubters to its fold: can there be a better news than a poor country discovering precious natural resource in its own yard?  With any sane government, the headline would have read:  More Gold In Eritrea Than Previously Thought.  It could have been a Zeresenay Moment: a point in time where everything stops and people, regardless of their political beliefs, bask in a rare fortune for Eritrea.  Nice little old ladies would have composed little ditties: wed�afwerki Bisha zeriuwa werki.    

But not with the gang in power.  Here�s a government that does more damage to the country than murderous acts of alleged terrorists.  If you think this is hyperbole, compare and contrast what happened on April 12, 2003 and September 7, 2004:

On April 12, 2003, Mr. Tim Nutt, a geologist working for the Canadian mining company, Nevsun, was killed in cold blood near the company�s headquarters in Bisha, Eritrea.   The government accused terrorists�the Islamic Jihad was named�and the Minister of Energy, Mr. Tesfai Gebreselasse, assured Nevsun that the murder of Mr. Nutt changes nothing and that his government would offer them all kinds of support to carry out their exploration.

Nevsun explained to the world that Eritrea is a relatively crime free country and the murder was an anomaly.  And nothing happened to the value of Nevsun�s shares. 

On September 7, 2004, Mr. Tesfai Gebselasse sent Nevsun (and two other Canadian companies) a letter ordering them to cease from further exploration.  No explanation was given.

Nevsun expressed its shock, there were whispers of �what can you expect from the Third World� and Nevsun�s market capitalization dropped by more than 50%. 

That was the injury.  Now the insult: for the crime of asking why, Nevsun was given unsolicited �advice�: Nevsun, stop politicizing the issue: how dare you cry when we slap you, crybaby?!   An advice coming from people who have no clue how the marketplace works; a counsel from socialists advising captains of industry how to run their industries. 

But this is the PFDJ; so there has to be more. First the injury, then the insult, then the folly.  They made this announcement that damages the interest of Canada at precisely the time that Mr. Yemane Gebreab, presidential advisor, was appealing to the Canadian government to come to the aid of Eritrea on the demarcation issue. Thanks to the quiet, consistent work of some of the hardest working opposition figures in Eritrean politics (individuals un-affiliated with the organized opposition), Canada has limited its aid to the government to the most basic humanitarian assistance.  It was Yemane Gebreab�s job to reverse that and thanks to his inept party, he could not deliver.  

Destroying Eritrea�s Reputation One Proclamation At A Time

The world may be a stage, as Shakespeare wrote, but in the political world, those of us who have the misfortune of being governed by people who do not have our consent, don�t get to decide when we appear on the stage.    In this stage, it is the self-annointed Idi Amins and Milosevics and Stalins and Saddams and Isaiases that mount the stage and speak on our behalf and shape the world�s opinion about us.

The terrible things this government commits fall into two categories: those that the world will correctly place the blame on the offending party and those for which the world will incorrectly blame Eritrea and Eritreans collectively.  

The world will blame the government, and exonerate Eritreans, for all the crimes that are explicitly political�arrests, disappearances, killing, torture, violation of human rights so long as the world understands that the government rules without the consent of the governed.  This is why aggressive lobbying against the government, far from being �un-Eritrean� or �anti-Eritrea,� is a patriotic duty of all Eritreans who wish to disassociate Eritrea from the crimes of their un-elected government.   Mengistu, who was un-elected, was correctly blamed for the Red Terror; Ethiopians, who were the victims, are exonerated.   On the other hand, Germans share part of the stain of the Holocaust because the German people duly elected Hitler. 

But then there are crimes of the government, which stain the people although they have nothing to do with earning the reputation, even when the government is un-elected.  Play word association with a Westerner: mention �Ethiopia� and the response is �famine.�  This, despite the fact that it was political decisions by unelected governments that resulted in the famines. 

It is with the PFDJ in the political stage that Eritrea�s reputation is being cemented and will stick long after the PFDJ is gone.  To the investor community, Eritrea is now what has stuck in the consciousness of diplomats for over a decade now: synonym for erratic and irrational decision-making process.  To the religious communities�particularly those well-connected to powerful governments�Eritrea is earning a reputation for intolerance and rigidity.  Thanks to this government, Eritrea, which is probably one of the most tolerant societies in the world, is earning a reputation for being intolerant, discriminatory and predatory towards the faithful.

The PolSci 101 retort to the above is this: Nation�s are governed by their self-interest and not by something as fuzzy and transient as �reputation.�  True enough: the problem is that, in this global economy where rich countries have plenty of countries to choose to partner with, it is not in their self-interest to partner with countries that have a reputation for lawlessness and immorality.  Unless the lawless and immoral countries are big (Nigeria) or rich (Saudi Arabia) or nuke powers (North Korea) or all of the above (China.)

Sell The Mall; Not The Car

Which brings us to the question of the organized opposition and their preparation to replace the sinking bridge of the PFDJ.   The good news is that October 2004 finds the state of the opposition in a far better position than it has been since October 2002.  The bad news is that the opposition is not, as of now, ready to step in and assume the mantle of power. 

Let�s take the accusations and counteraccusations at face value, namely, that (a) the Four Plus One is made up of political organization that do not have much in common except their insufficient commitment to the sovereignty of Eritrea and the coalition has, as the EPLF did in 1980, entered into secret deals with Weyane in exchange for uncontested dominance of the Eritrean political field or that (b) the Tripartite Coalition is a me-too coalition and is, like the PFDJ, using sovereignty as the last refuge of the scoundrel because it wants to gain a political upper hand for dominance and exclusion.

The reason the debate is being framed in such harsh contrast is because we Eritreans are inexperienced in managing political dissent or discussing tactics of bringing about change.    The most contentious being: are the Weyane our partners who are no different than any neighboring government or are they our adversaries whose history precludes anything but a cautious approach?

This kind of partitioning, which presents stark alternatives by using what the political experts call a �wedge issue�, is an effective way of attracting and retaining membership.  It is a legitimate and peaceful political process in an environment of a level playing field. 

Code 10-16

There is one problem: the playing field is not level and the PFDJ is, rickety as it is, still significantly more sizable, many times over, than all the Eritrean political opposition organizations combined.  Before people are given a choice of which organization to follow within the opposition, the Opposition must first establish the credibility to be taken seriously and, in politics, unlike guerilla warfare, size is the most important determinant.  If I can use a crude example, instead of highlighting the merits or demerits of a Honda or a Toyota, we should now be focusing on selling the Auto Mall first.    Let�s create an opposition bloc that is big enough, organized enough for Eritreans to see a real alternative to the PFDJ and see that they are worth taking a chance on; once we do that, people will identify with and join the member organizations based on their political programs. 

Size matters.  The hope people had on the Alliance and why the October 2002 disaster was such heartbreak was not because the Alliance had clarity about Weyane or its member organizations had harmonious political programs, but because they provided an umbrella for unity.  As for untimeliness of the wedge issues, the polarizing issue of Weyane is not the first one.  Recall the debate of 2003 where a great deal of time was spent discussing (in the usual harsh tones) whether change should be brought about in Eritrea by force or peacefully.  That discussion has now receded�with the antagonists exactly in the positions they held before the discussion was initiated but now as members of coalition blocs that do not necessarily agree on the issue of �peaceful� or �violent, if necessary.�

The discussion above is on the premise of �let�s take the accusations at face value.� For a number of reasons, I do not take it at face value, not the least of which is that I happen to know that those who are fanning the flames of hostilities (using real and pennames) are the cadres of the ELF-RC, ELF-NC, EDP and EPM.  Most of them know one another and most of them are, like the children of divorced parents, just looking for an outlet to express their anger.   Much of it is personal.  To its credit, the leadership of EDP and EPM have not joined the fray, but the leadership of the ELF-RC and ELF-NC are still marinating themselves in the rage of their bitter divorce.  The antagonists know one another very well and they seem to be wholly committed to the principle of MAD: mutual assured destruction.   Domestic disturbance, which is what this mostly is, can only be fixed by the participants: cops call it Code-16, and it is their least favorite call.  

The creaky bridge of PFDJ is falling.  The Eritrean opposition is in a much better state than it was in October 2002, but not yet positioned to assume the mantle of authority.  There is no new bridge but its blueprint is being drawn. Discounting and allowing for the children of divorce, who need more time to vent their issues, the trend in the opposition is encouraging and don�t let the shrill accusations discourage you from thinking that it is. 

It is understandable if one is frustrated with the pace of change.  But perhaps there is a good reason for the inefficiency of the opposition and the slow decay of the PFDJ.   The opposition is organizing slowly and the PFDJ is dismantling itself piece by piece.   Maybe it is God's way of trying to spare Eritrea more bloodshed by timing the fall of one and the rise of the other in a way that spares Eritrea power vaccum and violence. There is a word for that: Synchronicity.  Of course, there is also a word for people who are optimistic when there isn't much apparent reason to be...but I will leave that to you to include in your responses to this article.

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