Before I address the topic of the day, I would like to acknowledge Brother Fessehaye Wolde and his critique (�A Matter of Perspective�) that appeared in these pages several weeks ago. Fessehaye makes several salient points regarding Alnahda: that it is not reflective of the sad events in Eritrea; that it is ambivalent about Meles Zenawi and that its tone and points of reference suggest that the target is not the Eritrean people but a �cloistered priesthood of an audience of your peers.�  His critique is one of those dead-on accurate essays with which I find little to disagree.    Yes, stylistically, Al Nahda is intended to cover the pill (truth) with a sugary smooth coating (humor.)  Sometimes, maybe it is mostly coating and little pill.   But that is ok because Eritrean literature has produced so many capable writers who can describe the pill with all its rough edges in devastating accuracy. Yes, I am ambivalent about the paradox of Meles, who is simultaneously a co-conspirator in the bleeding of Eritrea but also happens to be the most pro-Eritrean leader Ethiopia has produced (even more pro-Eritrean than the venerated Eritrean, Aman Andom.) Yes, I do write for the �cloistered priesthood,� which is my only audience, now and in the future.  And that cloistered priesthood does include my brother Fessehaye and  I am pleased that he finds what  I write interesting.  

Let me talk about another member of the cloistered priesthood that I find very illuminating, Yosief G(ebrehiewit.) Years ago, in 1999 I think, Yosief G wrote a piece in Dehai.org about the �K factor,� thereby crushing those of us who were idealistic enough to believe we could influence US policy.   In case you were one of those students who was too busy interrupting the teacher with your favorite questions (�is this going to be on the test?�), in science, K stands for �constant� and is one of those values scientists discover (accidentally, most of the time) which shows that the proportionality of the relationship between two items does not change. In layman�s terms here is how it works: a scientist in Italy is playing in his bathtub looking at the flow of water and before you know it out comes a k about pressure in liquids, which is changed to a k about solid states by a Russian scientist and, before you know it, American bicycle repairmen have invented a plane. Which answers your second question: does this have any practical value?  Oh, yes it does.

The West�s K-Factor

Yosief G applied this principle to Eritrean politics.  In his formulation, the k factor is the relationship of the West, but particularly the United States, with Ethiopia. It doesn�t matter what form of government Ethiopia has and how lawless they act: the West will always be guided by its k-factor: the logic of �we must not contribute to the disintegration of the fragile state.�   There might be a renegade here and there but, for the most part, it is safe to say that this is the view of the West�s policy makers in their approach to Ethiopia and whomever Ethiopia is quarreling with.

When it comes to Ethiopia, even Ronald Reagan who was willing to aggressively engage communists in every continent including Africa, did no more than extend Carter�s sanction on Mengistu.

Something that Yosief G understood and described five years ago is an alien concept to many so-called experts, including the Eritrean president, judging by all the shock they express at how the West treats Ethiopia as a �spoiled child,� the whining over double standards and the naive calls by some compatriots for the West to impose sanctions on Ethiopia, even as they know in their hearts that that won�t happen.  Will we ever learn?

The Pro-PFDJ K-Factor

Not yet.  Why? The Eritrean Diaspora community has two roles: (1) to educate and lobby the policymakers of their adopted country on the error of their ways and to try to affect change; (2) to educate and lobby the policymakers of their country of birth on the error of their ways and to try to affect change. The Eritrean Diaspora community does a good job of lobbying the policymakers of their adopted country; unfortunately, because of the �k factor� (how the West views Ethiopia) most of the effort is wasted.  There is a non-binding resolution here and a press release there but, in the end, there never is action. Compounding things is the second rule: The pro-PFDJ Eritrean Diaspora community does a poor job of lobbying the policymakers of Eritrea because it has adopted another �k-factor�: the PFDJ was right, is right, will be right and if it is not, it is not my place to say so and this is not the right time to say so. That is the constant. The PFDJ supporter hates the most obvious answers; he prefers conspiracies and convoluted thinking. Just to maintain his own �k-factor� he will mess around with every other variable just to avoid the most obvious conclusion (the government is wrong.)

The Double K-Factor

A West that is very reluctant to punish Ethiopia; an Eritrean government too stubborn to change and a citizen who is very reluctant to persuade his government to change.  But, wait, wait, it gets even worse. There is k-factor between the two k-factors. Call It the Double K-Factor. The energy that an Eritrean spends lobbying the West to mend its ways is in direct proportion to the energy he spends maintaining that the Eritrean government should not change. For example, Eritrea�s foreign minister spends as much time lecturing the West on the illegality of its actions as he does rationalizing the illegality of his government. The Organization of Eritrean Americans (OEA), which is the loudest Eritrean lobbying group in the United States trying to convince the United States to change, is also the loudest lobbying group telling the US on how near-perfect the Eritrean government is. Conversely, the more one is convinced that the Eritrean government is literally the enemy of the Eritrean people, the harder and the more persistent the lobbying to convince the West of the government�s brutality.

With constants all around, rigidity is the rule. At least there is the opposition, right? Wrong.  See, the opposition has its own K-factor, too. Actually, quite a few of them. They called them �principles.� The EPLF-DP couldn�t work with De.Me.Ha.E and Sagem because they just knew that those two had committed crimes against the Eritrean people. It was a matter of principle. The ELF-RC splinter group couldn�t be led by Seyoum Ogbamichael because it just knew that this person whom it elected in a democratic process wasn�t democratic enough.  It was a matter of principle.  The ELF-RC couldn�t accept the election of Herui T Bairu as Secretary General of the Alliance.  It was a matter of principle. The Alliance couldn�t reinstate the ELF-RC unless they apologized. It was a matter of principle. The ELF-RC couldn�t return to the Alliance because it just couldn�t accept two clauses within the charter and they won�t come back until they are amended. It is a matter of principle. The Jihad and ethnic movements have to have those two clauses in the charter.  It is a matter of principle.  And that is the formula and the cause for Eritrea�s current state: despair.

What Has Changed; What Will Change

One thing that has changed�not necessarily irrevocably, but it has changed�is that the Eritrean people have dropped many of their own �K-factors.�  This was caused by a jolting experience: not just the war with Ethiopia, but the way the Eritrean government treated its own people in the wake after the war. Many writers, me included, may have failed to �adequately gauge the anguish, the agony, the hopelessness, the bleakness and the trauma that have beset the country and the people we profess to be ours,� as Fessehaye put it eloquently, but the pain of the Eritrean people is real.  As bad as we think it is, I believe most of us will be shocked when we finally find out how bad and how indescribably cruel the government  really is. General Pinochet was brought on charges for crimes against humanity for only a fraction of what Isaias Afwerki and his yes men have committed.  And as the pain has increased, with no sign of let up, the people are giving up all their �k-factors��their preconditions--for change. All the �k-factors� about the importance of change coming from within, about change coming gradually, or even that change has to come peacefully are dissipating quickly.  

I�ve mentioned despair; but there is cause for hope. First, if one compares the Eritrean Diaspora with any other immigrant group, it is very obvious that the Eritrean Diaspora is still connected with its native land.  Eritrea is not just some land we were born in: it is our home, our spiritual center and land of promises. No matter the obstacles, no matter how comfortable our life in exile is, most of us are vested in Eritrea and we will never close our eyes to what happens there.  (A friend calls this �the Eritrean virus�: it is incurable.)

Second, since the 1950s, the Eritrean Diaspora has always had a group, or an organization of resistance to fight against the forces who wanted to wipe out the dream. They kept the candle of resistance lit so that when new dissidents appeared; there was always a ready-made audience to listen to their stories. In the 1980s and the 1990s, these were the ELF-offshoot organizations; beginning in 2001, EPLF-offshoot organizations have joined the fray. These are the shelters and the asylum centers of those who seek guidance and direction in waging resistance.

Third, the mushrooming information centers�mostly websites�are providing diverse and instantaneous news and opinion to the Eritrean people keeping them informed so that they don�t feel they are alone or that the �chapter is closed.�  And each day, every day, they add a chapter to the Eritrean story, a story of a nation whose best days are still ahead.

In the end, though, it is a race between the government and the opposition to present itself as the presenter of the relief from the pain. The first one to transcend their "k-factor" wins.

The government�s position is this: I caused your pain, and I and only I will provide relief from your pain, because nobody else exists. It may sound absurd, but it is potent message if the people come to the conclusion that the alternative�the opposition�is as good as non-existent. The job of the opposition is to present itself not just that it exists but that it is willing, and capable of providing relief to the people immediately. 

This cannot be done by small organizations who are barely civil to one another, mouthing commitments to agree on �minimal� programs. It is contrary to human nature to be motivated by �minimal programs.�  People can be inspired by big goals, impossible goals, irrational goals, so long as the message is inspiring and the agents of change are credible. The fact is that nobody except the committed few are  inspired by the �minimal.� It is a prescription for smallness. What is needed, at minimum, is forming a unified opposition bloc, with a common charter, motivated by the same goal: surrendering power to the people. Sorry to say but everything else, regardless how high-sounding the motive might be, is just another outdated �k-factor.� 

This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it