Your great uncle left his entire fortune to your cousin. You believe you are entitled to some of the estate of the dear and departed great uncle. What to do, what to do?

One Option, your can use the �What Fortune?� argument. This is where you say �yefTerelkum� and give up the estate. To feel a little better about the loss, you can ridicule the fortune by calling it a �barren land� (the West�s reference to Badme) or �only has 50 huts anyway.� (Isaias�s reference to Badme when he was preparing us for a loss.) Meles was going to try this approach, but then the power centers in the State of Tigray started shouting �Zeraf, akekekekek� and Meles backed off quickly. �Come on, rise above politics and be a statesman, think long term,� said the West. But Meles knows the world is not always kind to statesmen; the last three �statesmen� who have gone against the prevailing public opinion of their compatriots are: Ishak Rabin, Pervez Musharaf, and Tony Blair. Rabin was assassinated; Musharaf survived two assassination attempts; Tony Blair�s status as statesman is safe because he comes from a country that has 800 years of rule of law. What shall Meles do? Hint: Ethiopia does not have 800 years of rule of law; in fact, its modern history has no peaceful transition of power.

Another option, you can also use the �my great uncle is insane� argument. Many Ethiopians have argued that the treaties of 1900, 1902, 1908 are null and void because they were entered between Ethiopia and Italy and Italy�s subsequent declaration of war on Ethiopia in 1935 and Mussolini�s eventual loss in World War II invalidates the treaties. Meles is not one of these Ethiopians. Meles is using the more sophisticated �my probate lawyer is incompetent� argument.

Still another option, you can also use the �my cousin is retarded� argument. Fine, fine, if you must insist that this estate should be given to my cousin, fine, fine. But you should know that my cousin is certifiably immoderate and doesn�t have the minimum competence required to manage the estate.

Of all these arguments, Meles Zenawi is betting that he will have a great deal of success convincing the world that his cousin (Isaias Afwerki) can�t be trusted with this trophy (Badme) and that he will mismanage the affairs to an extent that war will be the only dividend of this peace.  Lunacy can take many forms, some of the most visible symptoms being: (1) throwing stones at strangers; (2) having conversations with yourself and (3) regressing into childhood. It is in this area that Meles is betting that he can predict precisely the behavior of the PFDJ and it is in this area that the PFDJ will comply. And it has been complying in every respect� Let�s count the ways:

Throwing Stones At Strangers Every city has its colorful mental cases (although none more so than Keren; evidences of this should be send to the Negarit column, which will refute it.) People who grew up in Asmara in the 1960s will certainly remember Qeshi Quorai, whose favorite pastime was throwing rocks at strangers. PFDJ has replaced Muammer Qaddaffi as the Qeshi Quorai of our age. For over two years now, the PFDJ and its supporters have been engaged in the political equivalent of the mad man�s stock and trade, to throw stones at strangers. The litany is too long to mention: the EU, the UN, the Western media institutions, the AU, the human rights organizations, the religious freedom advocacy groups, the US, UNICEF, UNMEE, and NGOs. By throwing stones, I don�t mean just insulting them; but lying to them. And by lying, I don�t mean sophisticated fibs, but bold-faced ones that insult one�s intelligence. Take, for example, Mr. Girma Asmerom�s response to the US State Department annual �International Religious Freedom Report� which was issued on December 23, 2003, after the US was �unsuccessful at arranging meetings with the Government�s Director of Religious Affairs,� according to the report. After the report was published, Mr. Girma Asmerom issued a press release quoting the Eritrean constitution to prove that his government respects Eritreans� right to worship. And he is saying this to the State Dept, which has two of its employees in jail, without charges, in direct contradiction of Eritrea�s constitution and its penal code. Girma�s claims that the PFDJ respects civil liberties because Eritrea�s constitution mandates it to do so is like a married man arguing that he couldn�t have committed adultery because he was wearing his wedding ring at the time he committed adultery. It is a circular argument or, in Tigrigna, aytibke endiyu zebkyeni zelo!

Having Conversations With Yourself.  Another symptom of lunacy is self-dialogue. Why talk to other people when you find yourself so fascinating? PFDJ loves the word �diversity� but the diversity that has a political cost�diversity of opinion, diversity of worship, diversity in economic enterprise�is all either highly regulated or criminalized. What is left is for the PFDJ to do nothing but talk to itself. There are lively conversations between the Council of Ministers, between the cadres of the PFDJ, and finally, between PFDJ and the GoE. The rest of Eritrea is there to listen and get its lecture in doses. This self-dialogue occasionally reaches unintentionally funny proportions when Shabait.com gets bored with spewing nothing but propaganda and attempts to spice up its reports by quoting an anonymous source at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

So, what does PFDJ mean by �diversity�? Simple: PFDJ�s diversity is diversity from a National Geographic Magazine perspective. It is the kind you would find in any travelogue. Look at the �diverse� attire of the diverse ethnic groups; isn�t it wonderful? How cute!  Listen to and enjoy the diverse songs and dances of the diverse ethnic groups; isn�t it a fine thing? How splendid! Check out the diverse weather that one witness in the diverse landscape of Eritrea; isn�t it phenomenal. Oh, how charming, look at the Hedareb, how high they leap when they dance! How adorable, look at the colorful dresses of the Kunama, isn�t it delightful? It is the sort of diversity that can be displayed in a festival or an expo.  But the kind of diversity that can be shown in a parliament or media will buy you a one-way ticket to jail. (Actually, you probably have to pay for the ticket.)

Regression To Childhood Another symptom of candidacy to the looney bin is to regress to infancy. This can be either physical (failure to control body fluids, for example) or mental (inability to count and perform simple functions.) The history if Africa is replete with leaders who could not transform themselves from charismatic revolutionaries into head of states who deliver peace, stability and prosperity to their people. They persist stubbornly, until they are overthrown or mercifully die of old age. Breaking with this tradition, President Isaias Afwerki has declared his tenure as president a failure and is going back to a position where he had, by most accounts, a respectable measure of success: Secretary General. There is one minor adjustment he has to do to accomplish this task: convert an independent state into revolutionary movement.

Effectively running a democratic state is hard: it actually requires listening to people, making plans, accepting your compatriots as equal stakeholders, delivering on plans, building institutions and, worst indignity of all, living with the uncomfortable fact that your voice is just one of many. A leader of a sovereign state is supposed to uphold the nation�s laws and ensure the safety of the people.  It is the sort of challenge a grown-up has to deal with.  On the other hand, a leader of a revolutionary movement mobilizes the people to sacrifice and sacrifice some more; to give without asking, to follow orders for the larger good and to be a disciplined grunt in the �people�s army� and, importantly, to accept a life of war, indefinitely. In a �revolutionary movement� war and a sense of being besieged is the norm, and in fact a step towards victory. Peace is an illusion; life is cheap and witnessing the death and the imprisonment of your compatriots is not an outrageous act that should be condemned, fought, and stopped but just part of the journey. A revolutionary movement on its way to forming a state can stop discussions of the �border issue� as untimely; to be settled after we achieve an independent state. An independent state on its way to becoming a revolutionary movement can stop discussions of constitutionalism and rule of law as untimely issues that will be settled after we settle the border issue.

This is the political environment diplomats will find in their shuttle to Eritrea.

Shuttle Diplomacy:

The diplomats have called, will call on Meles Zenawi to go on record and state that he accepts the ruling as final and binding. This doesn�t mean that they will insist he means it; they just want him to say it so they can place the two nations on the same moral ground.   Mr. Prime Minister, you need to be a statesman.  What will it take for you to be a statesman?

The price of my being a �statesman�, Meles will argue, is the following: (a) demobilization of the large Eritrean army. This demand was originally made by Ethiopia shortly after it broke through the Badme frontlines (2/99) as a condition for negotiations (See Walta�s archives for an Ethiopian Foreign Ministry release entitled �Ethiopia�s Bottomline�.� etc.); (b) installing a democratic system in Eritrea because, Meles will argue, the causes of all wars between Eritrea and Ethiopia were because there hasn�t been a representative government in Eritrea and Ethiopia (we are trying; but Eritrea isn�t); (c) the PFDJ media must refrain from provocative and inflammatory language, because that�s what the Algiers Agreement calls for.

The diplomats will shuttle to Asmara and relay the message. Mr. President, you are a sovereign state and it is nobody�s business how large your army is. But in the interest of regional peace, you should at least make a commitment to reduce its size, even if you have no intention of following through with it. Mr. President, whether you have multi-party elections or not is nobody�s business except yours, but you should try to have some semblance of pluralistic government. Even if it is with a �Putin Opposition�, the kind of opposition that is wholly subservient to you. What matters to us is that you begin the journey�. Mr. President, you need to be a statesman.  What will it take for you to be a statesman?

At which point, President Isaias Afwerki will lecture them about how the PFDJ was committed to democracy as far back as 1987, then he will say something about Catholics and Popes and empty barrels and traitors and more incoherent nonsense.

What Peace Dividend?

For Meles Zenawi, his interests are to stay in power by not alienating public opinion of Ethiopians or that of the powerful benefactors. Unconditional acceptance of the ruling of the Boundary Commission brings him in direct contradiction of Ethiopian public opinion; outright rejection brings him in direct contradiction with the donor nations. The vocal opposition is telling Meles Zenawi to ignore the donor nations and the donor nations are telling him to ignore the vocal opposition, or even public opinion. Be a �statesman� is a call to disregard current public opinion in the hopes that, eventually, people will come to see the wisdom of your decision. It is in the interest of Meles Zenawi to drag out the process as long as he possibly can. As a bonus, Meles Zenawi would also like to see his nemesis Isaias and the system he represents destroyed.

For Isaias Afwerki, his interests are to stay in power and, lucky for him, he does not care about public opinion. He also likes to pretend that he doesn�t care what the powerful benefactors have to say, but he does.   To Isaias, Badme is still insignificant 50 huts; it is significant only to the extent that it serves as a reminder of Ethiopia�s loss.  He would like the process to proceed in a way that it creates an Ethiopian political crisis that will, at the very least, destablize the nation or, better yet, re-shape the political landscape so that ethnic groups who have never been in power emerge as the new power brokers.

For the powerful donors find the direction of Ethiopia under Meles Zenawi more appealing than the direction of Eritrea under Isaias Afwerki. Nonetheless, they understand that the Algiers Agreement, which was celebrated as a grand achievement, need to culminate in demarcation; otherwise, their power as brokers is diminished. They want Meles to signal his acceptance of the boundary commission ruling and they want Isaias to signal that even superficial changes will be made to show that Eritrea has reversed course and is embarking on the path to democratization.  Even if there is no meaningful change towards democracy and justice, they would not care as long as the high-profile cases (incarceration of G-15 and reporters and the two employees of the US embassy; closing of the press) are reversed.   Isaias can free about 20 people from jail, deal with a bogus opposition, open a private-but-not free press and make some noise about elections and they would consider it progress.

What the Eritrean people want is different from what Meles Zenawi, Isaias Afwerki and the �international community� wants.  Yes, they want the total dismantlement of the PFDJ and bringing to justice the criminals of the PFDJ to court.  But they would like to do it without the interference of Meles. They recognize that the Eritrean jails hold many Eritreans and they would like to see that every single one of them gets his day in court. They want border demarcation only to answer the question of why precious lives were lost, and to ensure that those who are forcibly conscripted are return to the bosom of their parents.  They do not want instability in Ethiopia; in fact, they want normalization of relationship with Ethiopians. They instinctively know that adventures the PFDJ engages in trying to interfere in the governance of Ethiopia or Sudan are none of their business.

Many in the Eritrean opposition have been able to articulate the hopes and dreams of the Eritrean people. What is missing is execution to make this a reality and, so far, one of the reasons for this failure has been their incapacity to strike the right posture in defining their relationship with neighboring nations, including Ethiopia.  Some are paralyzed into inaction because they dread even a coincidental agreement with Meles Zenawi; some are too glued to Addis Ababa and they suffer from an image problem that they have not been to shake. The opposition, too, needs a �statesman.�  Opposition, what will it take for you to be a statesman?

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