...And matter over faith.

About a week ago, a polling agency for Knight-Ridder news group asked Americans a series of questions regarding the US/AoW vs Iraq War.  The results of the�.what? Oh, what is �AoW�, you ask?  Well, that is the �Alliance of the Willing.�  The alliance included Eritrea and Ethiopia who, as will be taught in West Point, were critical in bringing Saddam to his knees.

Let�s go back to the poll.   The pollster asked about 1,200 Americans a few questions.  The poll had a + or � 3% margin of error.  We will focus on only two, because they are germane to the point of this essay.  Yes, there is a point.   When asked if the United States had found weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Iraq, 50% of the respondents said yes.  That is right, it is not a typo: a full 50%, as in one out of two, said, �yep.�  When asked of the nationality of the 19 terrorists who hijacked the planes on September 11, 20% responded that some were Iraqis.

Now these two events�911 and the war against Iraq�are probably the two most intently covered media happenings.   Short of a comet falling on Planet Earth or a return of the Messiah, it is hard to think of anything that will top these two events in terms of media saturation.  Yet, a full 50% of well-informed Americans hold on to a belief that is factually and verifiably incorrect.  And 1 of 5 believe the hijackers (whose mugs has been shown about a zillion times) included Iraqis.

The latter can probably be explained by Americans almost comical self-absorption to the point that they (ok, we) are clueless about the world outside the �sea to shining sea.�  I had a friend, an Eritrean friend, in the 1980s whose pick-up line to girls was to tell them that he is a prince from Kuwait.  In the very rare incident that he sensed the girl even had a clue about which continent Kuwait was in, he would say he is the crown prince of Bahrain.  Score! 

What about the issue of the WMDs.  There is a daily update on this issue in the media and people cannot possibly think there are any ambiguities.  And the daily update is: NO WMDs found in Iraq.  So what makes half of the people think they have been found?

Psychologists have an answer for that (wouldn�t you know?)  They call it �cognitive dissonance.�  I normally don�t pay any attention to what the psychies have to say, except when it is, behavioral science, based on solid research from a reputable university.  In this case,  the research was from a Bay Area University (Stanford) psychologist of the 1960s.  It was Stanford scientists that first established the depraved nature of man: give a man the right name tag and the right uniform and there is no limit to the torture he is willing to inflict on another man, even if it is a man he knows well.  But that is another subject�

The theory of �cognitive dissonanace� will make sense to us because Eritrean philosophers had discovered it eons ago.  I will elaborate on that later.  �Cognitive dissonance� theory holds that when people are confronted with facts that contradict their beliefs, they will do things to deal with their discomfort.  One of the ways they deal with uncomfortable facts is to completely ignore them.  Right, I know what you are thinking.  Our forefathers discovered this behavioral science years ago and have summarized them in many proverbs.  I will start, you finish.  �KbelEwa zdelyu��   Here�s another, �wela tnfer��

What does one do with strongly-held opinions that contradict facts? The campaign for the Presidency of the United States will begin in earnest in September 1, 2003 (Labor Day.)  There are 7 or 10 (who is counting?) Democrats (aka guaranteed losers) running against Bush.  How will they address the issue of No WMD?  The smart ones will look at the poll, discover that to Americans it doesn�t make a difference that WMDs were or were not found, and will leave the subject alone.  This is called  accepting the eccentricity of your people.  I have a friend (an Eritrean) who was passionately opposed to the War in Iraq and has now made it a habit of calling me to say, �Have you found any more fertilizers in Iraq?  Any DDTs?  You know, WMDs?�   The humorless ideologues and true believers (which is to say the terminally unelectable) will harangue their people about WMD and how Bush lied to them and why Americans are so Arab phobic they don�t know the difference between Iraqis and Saudis.  They won�t make it beyond Iowa.

Cognitive Dissonance In Eritrea

Like any other people, Eritreans have some  eccentric beliefs (some charming, others dangerous) that cannot easily change, regardless of the  strength of the facts presented to challenge them.  When I say �easily change�, I mean they are changeable�everything is�but it requires a great deal of time and repetition.  Those of us who consider ourselves part of the opposition to the PFDJ�whether organized or not�should understand them and find ways deal with them.   And the way to deal with them begins with acknowledging their existence.  I would argue that PFDJ�s competitive advantage here is that it well understands these �charming eccentricities� better than any other organization, primarily because it was responsible for propagating them.  It matters not that they are untrue; they are now part of our folklore�which is even more important than �facts� and �truth.�   The reason for their appeal is that they happen to be very flattering.   For example, an American holds to the verifiably untrue statement that WMDs were found in Iraq because that belief is congruent with his folklore that George Bush is a trustworthy person, that American military intelligence is second to none and that there are enough checks-and-balances in the system that American authorities couldn�t have possibly declared with such certainty that Saddam has (not had) WMDs.

Lest I be misunderstood, I am not saying that we give up and accept this folklore.  On the contrary, I am saying that we face up to them, we challenge them, repeatedly, but in a way that does not offend the Eritrean people: their sense of self-worth, identity is, to some degree, tangled up in these folklores.  I suspect there are quite a few of these, but I am not a social scientist so I will mention the three major ones.

# 1:  Eritreans Never Lose A War To Ethiopia

Eritreans may lose a battle or a skirmish here and there but when it comes to war, the myth holds that Eritreans always come on top.  If one were to ask a defining quality of Eritreanism, this declaration of �Eritreans never lose a war to Ethiopia� would top the list.  And small wonder, Eritrea is a state because it defeated Ethiopia in a long protracted war of independence.  And this war of independence was led or co-led by Isaias Afwerki.  So, goes the belief, as long as there is Ethiopia, there is a potential for war; as long as there is war, we shall win it�but only if we maintain the leadership (Isaias) that made it possible for us to win a war.  In this myth, Isaias is the Eritrean �Hijab� or �Hrzi,� endowed with superstitious protective qualities whose absence would be fatally hazardous.   To ward off evil spirits, Eritrea the nation must wear Isaias the man as its own Hijab for the forseeable future.

In fact, one can argue in retrospect that the G-15 were doomed because Haile DeruE�s �teTelaQina� speech began by assaulting this myth.  It made no difference that the G-15 were (and are) able to marshal an impressive array of verifiable facts to prove we lost the war but facts don�t matter in the face of folklore: folklore won.   The way Eritreans dealt with our own cognitive dissonance is to firmly hold that we won the war.  The world may laugh, but what the hell do they know.  We won.

# 2: The Amhara and the Tigreans Are Our Blood Enemies

In Eritrean folklore, the shorthand we use to symbolize the Amhara and Tigreans is telling.  An Amhara is �adgi� (a donkey), which is supposed to represent an animal who is not too bright.  Just doesn�t have the intellect to understand the obvious.  On the other hand, a Tigrean is a wekaria (fox), which is supposed to represent a shrewd if inherently evil animal.    These two ethnic groups are sworn enemies of Eritrea, according to Eritrean folklore, and there can never be peace as long as they are in power.

To its credit, the EPLF/PFDJ had made an attempt, for years, to differentiate between a regime and a people.   In fact, one of the most appealing things of the EPLF used to be its forward-looking, "what is gone is gone", enlightened approach.  Well, at least on the surface.  However, during and after the 1998-2000, the PFDJ has wallowed deep in the mass hysteria, availing itself in all sorts of demagoguery. Instead of its traditional �vanguard� role of attempting to sway public opinion, it chose to indulge it.  It even revised its historic relationship with TPLF to define it as "tactical", "temporary" and that the PFDJ was always on guard.  (Never mind the years of joined-at-the-hip relationship.)

Here, we are not talking about a small nation�s caution against a big neighboring nation with empire-building tendencies and history.  I believe that is prudent and justified.  I am talking about the ugliest, most crass targeting of a people.  The fox now has all sorts of other appellations that are accepted, endorsed and promoted by the PFDJ (through its 'cultural troupe') including names of insects and reptiles.  Even well educated people who fancy themselves proponents of justice and humanity have internalized this hatred towards �Tegaru.�   I have heard intelligent Eritreans espouse the theory (with a straight face) that the cause of the Eritrea-Ethiopia war was that �Tegaru Hasadat iyom,�  i.e. People from Tigray are a jealous lot.   People from Tigray are rapists, thieves, looters, etc.  Eritrea�s serenity is supposed to be conditional on the disempowerment of not only the TPLF but all �Tegaru� and �Amharu� and the �inevitable� empowerment of the Oromo.

The facts are powerless in the face of this folklore.  And the facts state that there is a long, long history of intermarriage and migration at least between the Eritrean and Ethiopian �people of Mereb.�  The facts state that there is a great deal of cultural, religious, linguistic and historic affinity between these two people.   The facts also state that both peoples and their land will remain fixed and they will be eternal neighbors and it is in their political, economic and social interest to insure that they establish a harmonious relationship.  The facts state that the Ethiopian army and the Eritrean army are two of the most highly-disciplined armies in Africa and to the extent there was rape, it had nothing to do with the criminals being �Tegaru� or "weyane" and everything to do with having rogue armed people (We have them in Eritrea, as well.)  Even the most emotional issue of deportations which has affected many families (including mine) reflects on the crass opportunism of Weyane, but not on the alleged "envy" of Tegaru.  From a realpolitic standpoint, it is in Eritrea�s interest to have a fully democratic state in Ethiopia.  Within that context, empowerment of Oromo is good for Eritrea.  But to wish for Oromo uprising just because you believe that will necessarily mean the disempowerment of �Tegaru� and �Amhara� is dangerous.

3:  Eritreans Got Help From No one and They Need No One

This folklore states that Eritreans won the fight against Ethiopia�s Haile Selasse and Derg regime single-handedly.  The Ethiopian regimes had, at various stages, the United States, Israel, and the entire Soviet Bloc on their side.  But we had no one; we did it alone.  PFDJ even has a short-hand for this folklore: �bSifrina.�

The facts state otherwise.  Almost all Gulf States and almost all Scandinavian nations and, of course, Sudan, supported the Eritrean revolution materially, logistically and financially.  The field-based "charitable" Eritrean NGO (no name needed) would not have been able to transfer a single penny or acquire war materials had it not been for the active participation of key nations at critical stages of Eritrean history.   And, of course, the capacity to withstand a series of punishing offensives in the 1980s and the final assault on the Derg, may have had a different outcome were it not for the strategic alliance (now being revised) with the TPLF.

After Independence, every Eritrean development project has had either a bilateral or multinational sponsoring or partnering agency.   The government continues to promote �bSifrina� even as its financial ratio numbers of indebtedness suggest otherwise.  But all of these facts crumble in the face of one of Eritrea�s enduring myths: we did it alone, we are doing it alone, we will do it alone.

If you want to test this myth, ask any Eritrean the following multiple choice question: Of the $66 million dollars received to alleviate the drought in Eritrea,  could you guess the percentage that came from the United Nations, from the United States, from international NGOs and, finally, from Eritreans?  The correct answer is 53% from the UN, 34% from NGOs, 10% from the US, and 3% from Eritreans inside and outside Eritrea. 

But the Eritrean folklore will promote the reverse: that Eritreans and their government raised all the funds and there was nobody to help us.   This folklore, this empty pride, is a dangerous one for a developing nation like Eritrea; it is already evident in the shortfall of $93 million Eritrea is facing.    In its 2002 report, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) had stated the following as one of the �Lessons Learned� for the puny response of the world to Eritrea�s appeal:

�The limited presence of international media, international organizations, and donors in Asmara has affected the humanitarian community�s ability to keep Eritrea on the international agenda. 

The UN may have learned this lesson; but the Eritrean government certainly has not. One of the international agencies that could have, by its mere presence, helped to keep �Eritrea on the international agenda� is the demining agency Halo Trust and it has just been sent packing out of Eritrea.  

The Challenge of the Opposition

Now, consider the challenge of the opposition.  Its case is extraordinarily hard because it is facing head-on three powerful Eritrean myths.  The kiss of death is its real (in the case of the Alliance) or perceived (in the case of all others) association with the TPLF who, in addition to being outsiders (contradicting the bSifrina! myth) also happen to be Eritreans �blood enemy.�  It would be one thing if the Ethiopians were Oromo or Ben Shagul but �Tegaru!!!�  The association also reminds Eritreans of another myth: that some of them broke the cardinal rule: Eritrea never loses a war to Ethiopia and some of these guys not only state Eritrea lost the war but were actually hoping for it.   

The opposition needs to do many things to overcome these obstacle but the first thing it must do is an honest appraisal if the Eritreans legitimate cause for change is advanced or hindered by them. Does it acknowledge the power of these myths or does it dismiss the issue as if it is irrelevant and accuse those who bring up the issue as being agents and victims of PFDJ propaganda?    But folklore and myths do exist and they are powerful and they cannot be overcome just by stating facts.  

One powerful tool at the disposal of all those fighting the PFDJ is to use other Eritrean folklores to their advantage.  These are the myths that don�t serve the government and those that, with all its propaganda machines, it has not able to destroy.   The folklore is this: Eritreans believe they are a just people.  They believe they are a people capable of self-government.  They also know that they have a spirit of resistance within them and are capable of rising up against the unjust. They also know that they have overcome seemingly impossible odds.  These are the qualities the opposition must appeal to..

But those of us opposed to the government cannot bring change on our own. We need the help of the Eritrean government.  The Eritrean government must find a way to make life so intolerable in Eritrea that the people question the myths the government has been promoting.  The government must find a way to dispossess the people, to take away their dignity, to isolate them from the world,  to take away their freedom of worship, freedom of movement, and their right to improve their lot. It must find a way to imprison them arbitrarily, to subject them to torture, to kill all signs of hope and to declare war on the people.  

In other words, precisely what the government is doing.

The government is doing its part, as feared and prophesied by all those who were warning it.   In April 2000, before Ethiopia�s Offensive, a reporter (Guardian?) quoted a diplomat who expressed his skepticism about the peace talks because the Ethiopians had put their �war mask on.�   The journalist concluded his report by saying that the fear is not what the war will do to Eritrea; the fear is that the aftermath of the war will change Eritrea �into another Ethiopia.�  He meant another African basket case, unable to cope with the challenges of statehood and governance.  The government has nobody but itself to blame for changing our promising and special Eritrea into another African basket case.   I cannot think of anything that is a bigger betrayal than this.

Faced with a choice to save Eritrea or itself, the PFDJ has chosen to save itself.  The government has done its part.  It is time for the opposition to do its part, to dispel the dangerous myths and reinforce those that promote justice.

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