Between 1991-1997, Eritrea�s economy grew at the rate of 7% per annum.   I said so, in one of my columns (Twgahmo: Government & The Economy, July 2000.)  And how do I know that?  Because Haile DeruE said so in March 2000 in his last visit to the United States.  And how does he know that? Probably because one of Isaias Afwerki�s economic advisors told him so.  Consider what Isaias Afwerki said on two occasions as recently as last month:  address the Eritrean people on Independence Day 2003, he said: 

 The development strategy we accordingly charted out was successful enabling us to register a steady GDP growth of 7% until 1997.

Days earlier, the BBC interviewers who asked if, looking back, the president would have done things differently, got this response:

Not at all! Facts can speak for themselves. Our achievements are not only PR figures we talk about. Until 1997 the growth rate of the economy were between 6-8%.

It is the new "Arba'a", the old radio play updated. It turns out we are all wrong.  Misinformed, in my case, although the information was publicly available and I could have verified it for myself.  And I was wrong.  But, you know the expression and question that follows the expression: does one walk by faith or walk by sight?  Faith no more, when it comes to the PFDJ, and we must walk by sight.  The PFDJ communication switch has an on and off button: when it is on, they are lying; when it is off, they are obstructing.  

So, what is the real story behind Eritrea�s economic growth since 1991?   To answer that question, one needs to remember that economics is to science like psychology is to medicine.  They are distant relations, twice removed cousins, but no more.  I used to wonder why psychologists invented new diseases every year (attention defecit disorder! Post war traumatic syndrome!) until I read a book called �Plato not Prozac� (not to be confused with �Potato, Not Prozac�).  Plato not Prozac argues that Americans are too reliant on therapy and should try philosophy; Potato Not Prozac argues Americans are too reliant on therapy and drugs and should try a healthy diet instead.  Anyway, according to Plato Not Prozac,  when diagnosing a hitherto unclassified mental illness, psychologists/psychiatrists rely on a meticulous and painstakingly deliberate scientific discipline known as�voting.    All those in favor of classifying bipolar disorder a mental illness say Aye.  All opposed?  Barring no objections, motion carries.  

This message brought to you by the pharmaceutical giant Dui Drugem N How, Inc.  Forget Plato, forget potato, have some prozac.

I caricature, I paint in broad brushes.  That�s what I was told by a friend years ago.  But what does he know; he is an economist.  (I almost majored in econ until I learned how little they make.)   Oh, yes, back to the economists.  Well, they are not as unscientific as psychologists; although both have a fixation on rubbing their goatees and saying, �hmm, interesting!�  Actually, economics is a science, it is just an inexact science: a fact is a fact when a preponderance of economists says it is.  Sort of like a scientific fatwa�

Back to the fabled 7% growth.  Where did it come from?  What is the source?  It so happens that when it comes to national economies, one of the authorities is the Central Intelligence Agency.  You know, the CIA.    And why not?  If you want to know how much money is hidden in the vaults of a bank, you would either go ask the banker or you would speak to the banker�s girlfriend, his plumber, his vault maker and the driver who transports the money.  If you wanted to know the best tourist attractions in a city, you would talk to the tourism minister or a tour guide or the local mugger who steals from the tourists.  The CIA knows the girlfriend, the plumber and the mugger.  This is why, in economics, particularly the economies of developing nations, the CIA is THE authority on the figures�

Each year, the CIA publishes a Factbook on every nation.  It has been publishing a factbook on Eritrea since 1993.   It is an extensive report covering the nation�s geography, population, health, government, infrastructure, budget, etc.   For the purposes of finding the fabled 7%, I have extracted only the population, population growth, inflation rate, GDP, GDP Per Capita and GDP Growth.   Remember, we are trying to measure GDP growth and, as you�ll recall from your econ classes, GDP stands from Gross Domestic Product, the value of the final goods and service produced domestically, thus excluding things like remittances from Diaspora Eritreans, which would be counted in the GNI, formerly GNP.  You also remember (and it makes sense intuitively) that for a nation to register any per capita growth, its rate of GDP growth must exceed the combined rate of inflation and population growth. 

Now, let�s find the �steady GDP growth of 7%� that Eritrea registered until 1997, according to Isaias Afwerki:

Before you render your judgment, a few words on the numbers:

1. The numbers are taken straight from successive CIA World Factbooks.  If you are a fact checker, your instinct is to do some quick fact checking on the factbook: If the population grew from 3.46 million in 1993 to 3.78 in 1994, is that really a 3.41% growth?  Or conversely, the GDP per capita for 96 and 97 is identical, yet the growth is reported as 3.9%? The CIA has an answer and it has nothing to do with Anthony Lake:  where there are discrepancies, it is because the numbers were revised after publication or the methodology of data gathering was changed.   We know the maid, we know the girlfriend, we know the plumber�
    
2. Between 1993 and 1994, Eritrea�s GDP jumps from 400 million to 1.7 billion.  Fantastic!  Bumper year? Booming exports? Well, no.  What happened is that the CIA switched from one form of calculating GDP (exchange rate conversion) to another (Purchasing Power Parity or PPP.)  Why?  Remember the scientific fatwa.  Because leading economists, using a meticulous and painstakingly deliberate scientific method of consensus, agreed to do it that way.  What�s the difference?  Under the former model, the Ethiopian Birr�s currency exchange rate determined definition of GDP growth.  The PPP is supposed to neutralize the effect of currency exchange rates.  For a simple and effective explanation of PPP, read the Economist�s �Big Mac Index� which tracks how much a Big Mac (Bigu Macu in Japan) is selling at various countries and, based on this information, tells us which currencies are under or overvalued.   �hmmm, interesting��
    
3.  The GDP growth rate reported is the �real growth rate�, meaning, it already accounts for the inflation and population deflators.  
   
4. If you don't like the CIA's numbers, go ahead and search for information from the World Bank, IMF or any of the UN agencies or the EU.  Remember, though, you are checking for GDP growth between 1991-1997 that was a consistent 6-7%.  Unless it is �steady� and sustained, the growth rate is not as important as the actual size of the per capita GDP.  To illustrate this point, consider this: in 2002, Sir Lanka had the highest GDP growth in the entire world (18%) and Argentina had the lowest (-14.7%).  Yet, Sri Lanka�s GDP per capita is only $500 (the lowest) and Argentina�s is $10,200 (solidly Second World.) 

Now take a look at the years 1993-1997 in the table above: can you find the �steady GDP growth of 7%?�  It depends on whether you walk by faith or walk by sight, doesn�t it? If you are relying on your eyes, it doesn't exist.  But there are ways.  After all, these are all ratios, which is nothing more than a numerator over a denominator, and one can always get impressive numbers by inflating the numerator and deflating the denominator.  Specially if one is without scruples.  In other words, a die-hard PFDJ.

Playing With The Numbers

The most fun the PFDJ has in toying with the numbers is when it comes to the population.  What is Eritrea�s population?  Altogether now: 3.5 million.  What was it in 1993?  3.5 million.   What will it be in 2003?  3.5 million.  That�s what it was in 1993 and that�s what it will be in 2003.  3.5 million.  If the GDP grows annually but the population doesn�t, you are guaranteed to have impressive GDP/capita growth. 

Mind you, when Shaebia.org came to being, its reason d�etre was to provide authoritative information about Eritrea so that researchers and academics don�t have to fish in the dirty waters of abominations like Awate.com.  Years later, it still has nothing.  It is probably not for lack of trying: years ago, I was trying to highlight Eritrea�s impressively low (so I was told) HIV-AIDS rate and I couldn�t get a single government official to speak on record.  �What a modest group of folks,� I thought naively, �they won�t even advertise their accomplishments.�  That is when I used to walk by faith; but then one opens his eyes and considers other possibilities for the super-secrets.  As in the relationship between HIV/AID and militarization, rampant prostitution, TB, displacement, high mobility�and one grows skeptical.  

The new sheriff in town, Shabait.com, is angling to be the authority for final and binding documents on Eritrea.  So, we should get it from Shabait.  According to Shabait, �The population of Eritrea is estimated to range from 3,520,000 to 4,000,000.�   So there, curious researcher, here is the data with a standard deviation of 340,000 people, according to my calculator.  Close enough, if you are looking for a number that may or may not include a population the equivalent of the entire residents of �Debub� or �Gash/Barka.� 

The other trick has to do with self-reporting.  Since there are no budgets, no audited financial statements, the PFDJ can exaggerate the size of the GDP and nobody would be the wiser.  Not even the guys who know the maid, the mugger...

Beyond The Numbers

In the end, what will undo the PFDJ is not the armed men but its own exhausting effort of trying to juggle deceit, hypocrisy and lies to everyone.   The PFDJ�s main currency has been competence: sure it is oppressive, people say, but at least it works hard and is developing the country.  The battle going forward is between those who inform the world that this claim of competence is a mere illusion and of those who state that it is real.  In my view, those who cling to the PFDJ have a wrong position, but at least it is a principled position.   Not all are motivated by fear or self-interest: some  truly believe the PFDJ is the best bet for Eritrea.    They don�t like debates but, if they did, at least they could articulate their positions by referring to authoritarian states that have made economic strides.    The mysterious ones are those who want to straddle both positions: the nail biters, the hypocrites and those who have been on soul search joy ride without a time frame, occasionally peeking to get an �atta boy, good citizen� pat from the PFDJites and a �welcome home� assurance from the pro-justice Eritreans.   What a way to live, burdened by cognitive dissonance every waking hour that you are not searching your lost soul. 

Let the battle of ideas be joined; let the campaign for the hearts and minds of the people continue.  Because competence is measured in tangible improvement in the lives of people:  sustainable peace, healthcare, clean water, education, employment, justice and, yes, democracy.  As the UNDP says (and they ought to know):

Politics matter for human development. Reducing poverty depends as much on whether poor people have political power as on their opportunities for economic progress. Democracy has proven to be the system of governance most capable of mediating and preventing conflict and of securing and sustaining well-being. By expanding people's choices about how and by whom they are governed, democracy brings principles of participation and accountability to the process of human development.

But the PFDJ has chosen a life of deception in dealing with Eritreans and development partners alike.  Consider the issue of demobilization.  It is well understood that a small nation like Eritrea cannot afford to have 350,000 citizens in its armed forces.  In May of last year, the government secured a 60 million dollar loan from the World Bank to demobilize 200,000 of Eritrea�s Defense Forces, in a three-phase 60-70,000 soldiers per phase, over a period of 18-24 months.  The $60 million secured was for the first 60,000 soldiers.   In the meantime, the PFDJ stumbled on a great idea: what if we keep the money and refuse to demobilize the soldiers?  It won�t be expensive because�get this�we won�t pay them anything.  Brilliant, huh?  We will give it a fancy name �Marshall Plan�, without explaining why this plan, unlike its namesake,  is compulsory.  Meanwhile, we will play the game.    On New Year�s Eve of last year, they announced�through a one-liner statement on their website�that they would demobilize all the women.  That was five months ago; there is no follow-up yet.   But "soon", there will be.  In a recent report, Askalu Menkorios filed to the UN Committee on the Rights of the Child, her PFDJ switch stalled between obfuscation and lying: �200,000 youngsters would soon be demobilised from the armed forces.� Insha-Allah. The PFDJ have corrupted the word �soon� as much as the Saudis have abused the phrase �insha allah.�     

And Over In Rwanda�

They went through a two-year constitution drafting process and the people ratified it with a vote of 95%.  They will have elections �at the end of this year.�  There is a catch: the president, Paul Kagame, outlawed his main competition.  It appears that they were guilty of the Rwandan version of defeatism�it is called �divisionism.�  Some politicians disappeared�they were accused of fleeing to Uganda.  The Rwandan constitution imposes a term limit�the president can be elected only twice. (The Eritrean constitution has term limits on the strength of Isaias's arguments, according to Dr. Berket Habteselassie.  Dr. B did not know at the time that the terms and their limits wouldn't take affect for another decade thus, the real term limit was planned for 30 years.) The term in Rwanda is seven years, despite the strong protests of Paul Kagame who wanted them shortened to five years but had to defer to his Hafash who, of course, authored the constitution� (Joke: when Husni Mubarek amended Egyptian constitution to allow himself another term, he insisted, without being asked, that he would not allow his party to nominate him for yet another term.) 

Due to the scary parallels, don�t be too surprised if Rwanda and Uganda go to war, again.   Regardless of the outcome, both will declare victory and both will crank out their own Seven Percent. That is what African Renaissance leaders do.   When it comes to renaissance men, faith no more.

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