With the border issue settled, I feel it is time for reflection. In future issues, I will talk about my thoughts of the two-year propaganda wars; how the Ali Saleh Abdellah vacuum resulted in war; the role of the intelligentsia; why the Third Offensive was actually the Fourth Offensive, and why, for me, the war (and thus the propaganda war) was over in July 2000. For now, I will talk about Badme and the verdict.
Anytime one proposes an idea that, to the speaker, is self-evident but is not so to others, Egyptians will say kan qeirek ashTar. It is an Arabic expression roughly meaning, others, smarter than you, would have thought of this. In this case, not only is it probable that others have thought of this, but they may have written about it as wellbut I am not aware of it. So here goes: the proof that Badme Town was given to Eritrea is not hidden in carefully worded language or map co-ordinates. It is out there, in black and white.but you have to make one assumption to accept it.
Of course you could listen to the experts. On Eritreas side, Martin Plaut of the BBC and Martin Pratt of the UN. The latter says, the Soviet maps - which both parties used in their pleadings - are sufficiently accurate to say with some confidence that Badme is in Eritrea. On Ethiopias side, there were no takers. And where there are none, the Ethiopian Government trots out old reliable Paul Henze, who was interviewed by Walta Information Center (WIC.) WIC is the type of journalistic endeavor that symbolizes leftist governments idea of a free responsible press: (Sample question: They [The Hague] came out entirely in favor of Ethiopia's position. Do you feel this was just?) Henze feels that the decision was entirely in favor of Ethiopia. Note to Henze: Refer to Page 2 of your own book ERITREAN OPTIONS AND ETHIOPIA'S FUTURE (1989) and see if the map of Eritrea there looks like the one Eritrea claimed or the one Ethiopia claimed. According to a friend, Henze wrote 8 papers for the think tank Rand in 1989; so he should be forgiven if he forgets a map in page 2 of one of the 8 books.
You could also listen to the mathematicians. They have formulas for distances of lines, given the co-ordinates of the beginning and end points. They have formulas for the slope of a line (something about rise and run). They are precise, but they take forever to determine.
Kan qeirek Ashter:
Then there is logic; imperfect, but reasonably reliable. There is a logical reason to believe that Eritrea has prevailed on Badme Town. Let me demonstrate.
There is a unanimous agreement on the northern end point: it is the confluence of Mai Ambessa and Mereb. So, for brevity, lets just talk about the southern end point. If we draw a horizontal line to represent the Setit/Tekeze River, the EEBC markers, going west to east, would look like this:
_____3__________________________4_________5____6_____7A/B______8
Color Code:
Red = Ethiopian Claim; green = Eritrean claim; black = neither
Point 3 (Maiteb) is Ethiopias claim
Point 8 (Mai Tenne) is Eritreas first claim
Point 6 (Tomsa) is Eritreas second claim
Points 7A/B (un-named) are Eritreas third and final claim
Point 4 is not a claim; it is Eritreas suggestion that when the Treaty says Maiteb it really meant Sittona. (This was a blunder almost as big as Ethiopias concession that Tsorona is undisputed Eritrean territory. If the UN had not dismissed this as a mere suggestion and had actually accepted it as a formal pleading of Eritrea, we would have lost not only Badme Town, but Mochiti, Gogula, etc as well.) Point 5 was not a claim point either; it was put there as a marker to educate us that there is a river called Maeeteb, different from Maiteb and Mai Tenne.
The EEBC ruled that the Setit border was at point 6 (Tomsa) which is identical to Eritreas second, but not the final, claim. My belief that Eritrea won Badme Town is based on the following assumption: After two years of war and carnage, Eritrea and Ethiopia (and their dozens of high-priced lawyers) would have to present claims (arguments, maps, etc) that included Badme Town on their side of the territory.
But wait a minute, you say. This assumes that Eritrea and Ethiopia know the precise location of Badme Town. Isnt that a big assumption? Doesnt Eritreas ever shifting claim indicate that Eritrea wasnt sure where Badme Town is? Well, no. In all its claims, Eritrea was sure to include Badme Town in its side of the border. (Again, Point 4 doesnt count as an argument.) Eritrea held Badme Town from May 1998 to February 1999 (nine months); Ethiopia held the town from February 1999 to present (not to mention 1991 1998). It strains credulity to accept that, during this period, the two governments had not conducted GPS to determine the location. In fact, there is every reason to believe both Eritrea and Ethiopia know the precise co-ordinates of Badme Town (never mind Seyoum Mesfins big production about taking cartographers with him)
Well, at least Eritrea does. And here's why.
As early as November 1988, the diplomatic mission in Asmara had conducted GPS. According to the Indian Ocean Newsletter (Nov 14, 1988), the Asmara based diplomats, having conducted GPS, were able to ascertain that Badme was 4 kilometers west of the border and that Zalambessa, too, was inside Eritrean territory. (This is around the time we shifted our argument from claiming, we were holding Zalambesa for strategic and defensive reasons only to we are holding it because it is ours.) What maps did they use? Soviet era maps, the same ones used by Eritrea and Ethiopia in their pleadings. They dont give the co-ordinates for Badme but, in the case of Zalambessa, the GPS conducted by the Asmara-based diplomats in 1988 showed that the southern tip of Zalambessa had the following coordinates: 14. 30' 88" N; 39. 23' 44" E. If you do a detailed grid of EEBC Map 11, you will verify for yourself that the Asmara-based diplomats were right on the money.
What does that prove? Werent the diplomats wrong on Zalambessa? Well, no. Ethiopia got Zalambessa purely on the administration argument that is why it is carved in such an odd manner. The diplomats were right on Zalambessa and right on Badme Town.
In short, Eritreas claim that it won Badme Town is based on the argument of, we claimed the Tomsa-Mai Ambessa line and we were awarded the Tomsa-Mai Ambessa line.
I now look forward to your "kan qeirek ashTer" arguments...
To Be Continued.
