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Editorial
Unlike Eritrea’s relations with Sudan, despite the ups and downs, Eritreans are always anxious over their country’s relation with Ethiopia- they never had the chance to shed off their fear, suspicion and skepticism. The recent alliance between the PFDJ and KINIJIT is one such cause for anxiety. A considerable number of the Eritrean opposition members are beginning to doubt the intentions of the Ethiopian government regarding the future of Eritrea – could the EPRDF be considering their trust as naiveté! It is difficult to imagine that the EPRDF is not aware of its blunders - political blunders that would cause squirms from the most trusting. Since 1999, when the Eritrean Alliance was formed, there has been a steady flow of complaint from one member organization or another that the government of Ethiopia plays favorites, is unclear of its goals, and continues to send mixed messages about its intentions. Specifics are, not surprisingly, hard to come by: the Eritrean opposition organizations are reluctant to openly criticize the one neighboring government, Ethiopia, which is hosting them. They can’t say it, so we will. But first, we need to state a few positive things about the government of Ethiopia. The TPLF was the first Ethiopian organization to view the Eritrean question as one of colonialism and to recognize the Eritrean right to self-determination. Its cooperation in the referendum process providing the legal garb for Eritrea’s de-facto independence, was revolutionary by African standards. Finally, and related to the above two points, we reject the self-serving slogan of the Eritrean government that the TPLF is the “blood enemy” of Eritrea: it is not. It is the blood enemy of the PFDJ, which places it in the same cause as many Eritrean opposition groups who despise the PFDJ and its war-mongering policies. Regretfully, however, the TPLF does share some of the worst history and bad habits of PFDJ. These are power monopoly, reckless policies, and secrecy. Power Monopoly The Eritrean field once accommodated the mighty Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF.) It was driven out once the TPLF and the EPLF formed their unholy alliance. Later, the ELF-Revolutionary Council was driven out of Ethiopia at the request of the PFDJ and the leaders of EDLM (Demhae’) were hunted down in ‘sovereign Ethiopia’, in the towns of Dessie and Humera to be kidnapped (Gebreberhan Zere) or assassinated (Zekarias Negusse) by the PFDJ, without a single protest from Ethiopia. Similarly, the Ethiopian field once accommodated the Tigray Liberation Front (TLF), the Ethiopian Democratic Union (EDU) and the Ethiopian People Revolutionary Party (EPRP.) With a wink and a nod from the EPLF, the TPLF liquidated them all. The result is what we see now: a complete power monopoly by these two organizations. In the entire State of Tigray, with a population estimated at 5 million people, there is only one viable party: the TPLF. And Eritrea, with a population approaching 3.5 million has a single monopolizing party: the PFDJ. Because both parties rose to unchallenged power through suppression and liquidation of opponents, they have a very perverse sense of power: all or nothing. They are unfamiliar with the concept of a little power, some power or no power. They don’t know the meaning of negotiation and, thus, persuasion. They are used to calling the shots and having their orders obeyed. With this mindset, political parties never ask themselves, “what if I am wrong?” Or, “the other guy is persuading people; I better change, I better improve my arguments.” It is instructive to note that the TPLF still refers to the overwhelming vote against it in Addis Abeba as a “protest vote.” Meaning, the people really don’t prefer the other party; they were just trying to send us a message. What does this have to do with the Eritrean opposition groups in Ethiopia? Simple: the Ethiopian government’s view of power means that it wants to remind them, at all times, that it is in charge. And this is done in the tackiest way: by assigning the Eritrean opposition case to the junior cadres within the ruling party who are free to make whimsical decisions and play king makers. This is too much for the indomitable Eritrean spirit which, of all its defining characteristics, is pride. Reckless Foreign Policy What is Eritrea’s policy towards Ethiopia? One may argue whether it is right or wrong, but the stated priority is the border demarcation in accordance with the EEBC ruling; as for normalization of relationships, it is convinced that the Ethiopian government won’t last long and it will go to any length to ensure that the TPLF is defeated. And it is inciting armed insurrection inside Ethiopia and grooming a replacement. This bluntness is reckless—it goes to the extent of rehabilitating Derg officials, arming them and providing them with training and logistics. What is Ethiopia’s policy towards Eritrea? Nobody knows, which is equally reckless. The border may be demarcated in accordance with the EEBC and a facilitator, maybe. The government may go for full normalization with the Eritrean government, maybe. The government may seriously support the Eritrean opposition groups, maybe. Beyond the minimum hosting assistances and services, the Ethiopian government is providing absolutely no tangible services—nothing financial, nothing material. Just a series of unexplained pull-push strategies that serve no purpose than to alienate the opposition groups. Secrecy Of the 16 opposition organizations within the Eritrean Democratic Alliance, four are avowedly or pseudo ethnic rights groups, two are Islamists and ten are, at least according to their political platform, working for a broad-based national agenda. Some are for peaceful struggle; others call for armed struggle. Some have an ELF background; some have an EPLF background; others have neither. In short, they are a diverse lot who, against all odds, managed to draft a charter and elect their leadership. The government of Ethiopia has for decades promoted the virtues of ethnic federalism for Ethiopia. This may or may not be a good prescription for Ethiopia, but that is for Ethiopians to decide. What is unclear is whether Ethiopia also believes that this is the right prescription for Eritrea. If the Ethiopian government is a true friend of Eritrea, its position must transcend individual or narrow interests and extend to supporting organizations and leaders that have been directly or indirectly elected. So far, this means the EDA and the EDA leadership. Regretfully, there are many allegations, some of them very credible, that the Ethiopian government is killing the Eritrean opposition either via benign neglect or its own king-making calculations. The Ethiopian government must learn from its own experience with the EPLF that regardless how close its relationship with an organization, regardless how closely aligned its agenda is with that of a favored organization, in the end, unless the organization has the support of the Eritrean people, the relationship is likely to backfire causing more chaos and destruction. Both the current ruling parties in both countries bear the responsibilities for the lack of stability in the region. Their exclusionist alliance that was cemented in the late seventies and that continued to the late nineties, is the cause of all of our current predicament. Even the brief wedge between the TPLF and EPLF in the mid-eighties, though it appeared to mean a competition on who is more communist than the other, in reality, it was rivalry on who would be the major partner in a narrow egocentric alliance. To day, the EPRDF has a golden chance to rectify past mistakes. With all its weaknesses, the EDA leadership has demonstrated that it is the only group that enjoys the confidence of a broad group of Eritreans. The Ethiopian government must, for its own interest and that of Eritrea, abandon its long history of secrecy, intrigue, conspiracy and ambivalence to full-heartedly support this organization and the constituency it represents. |
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