These days, the horn of Africa is facing several major challenges. Old alliances are broken and new ones are being created, as we write. The old "alliance of the front line states", made of Eritrea, Ethiopia and Uganda, created to fight the spread of radical Islam, in the region, is dead.
The alliance had collapsed under its own weight, and the former partners are at each others throat; vowing to finish their "enemy". No amount of money or life is to be spared towards that endeavor. Success is to be measured, by the demise of the "enemy". It is a politics of hate, as has never been seen in the region, before now.
PIA has taken a vow not to leave a stone unturned to achieve that goal. And he is squandering the meager, human and economic resources of the country, just for the satisfaction of bringing his former friend, the Ethiopian prime minister, down.
In all this, the people have no say. They have to fight when they are told to fight and celebrate when they are told to do so.
THE SUDAN : For some time now, the Eritrean government had been fighting a proxy war, using an amalgam of eastern Sudan rebel groups, mainly composed of the Beni-Amir and the Harendawa tribes. While the underlying cause was the poverty, neglect and political marginalization of the people in the region. The rebellion errupted, due to, the overt assistance provided by the government in Asmara. These included military, political and economic assistance. There were even accusation of direct military involvement.
In the Darfur region, a number of rebel groups, backed by some of neighboring countries, are fighting the central government. Here again, the UN and the government in Khartoum, are pointing their fingers, towards Eritrea.
In recent months, there had been some diplomatic initiatives taken, by the governments of Eritrea and the Sudan. The purpose was, to bring an end to the conflict in eastern Sudan and more importantly, to normalize their once estranged relationship.
The agreement to cease the hostilities is to be commended. However, there are as yet, an unanswered questions of what triggered the conflict, to start with? Most importantly, what did Eritrea gain from this conflict and ultimately, who is responsible for all the destruction that may have cost the country, big time. Both in economic and human terms.
SOMALIA : Here again, there are, as yet, unsubstantiated accusations leveled against Eritrea. Eritrea is being accused of arming and perhaps training, some elements of the Somali court militia. Many in the know, who had witnessed the armaments on display by the Islamic court militia, have come to the conclusion that, some of the weapons may have come from Eritrea. That is because of the resemblance of the weapons, to those captured in Eritrea, during the struggle for independence.
If true, it may have a long term ramification for the region and Eritrea. For, by supporting the hard line Islamic militia, Eritrea is forgoing all the moral and legal high ground, when and if, such kind of radicalization spreads in Eritrea. We know the saying, "Those who live in a glass house, should not throw stones."
The rational behind Eritrea's involvement in the conflict is, to open a new front on its long running quarrel with Ethiopia. It is that, "the enemy of my enemy, is my friend". This is tactically flawed and strategically short sighted. And in the long term, it stands against the interest of Eritrea and the region. A radicalized Somalia or Sudan, does not auger peace and harmony for the people of the region. We need to plant, the seeds of tolerance and harmony and not of hate and bigotry.
I am for peace in Somalia. I am also opposed to the meddling into the Internal affairs of the country, by any force outside the country. Let the Somalis solve their own problem. Both Ethiopia and Eritrea should keep their hands off Somalia. Those who have led, hundreds of thousands of their citizens, into death and destruction, all in the name of an impoverished village, could not be honest brokers. They lack the moral and ethical authority, for such a noble and humane undertaking.
Above all, no country has the right to launch a preemptive attack, on the fear that, a united Somalia may be a threat to it. We should give the Somali people the benefit of the double. And if and when, the emerging government threatens the peace and security of the region and becomes a known safe harbor to some unsavory elements, then and only then, could a country claim - the right of self defense.
ETHIOPIA : I am often reminded, by my Ethiopian detractors that, the country has scored significant economic and political achievements, in the last fifteen years. I have no reason to doubt that and I wish the Ethiopian people, all the success in the future. My contention, with Ethiopia and its current leadership is, on its role in the last war with Eritrea and its continuing refusal to honor the court's decision.
Yes, the conflict erupted as the result of Eritrea's invasion of Badime. But that is only half the story. The conflict could not have exploded beyond all proportions, if it was not for the bizarre complicity by the Ethiopian government. We all remember the declaration of war passed by the Ethiopian parliament, needlessly, elevating a conflict that could have been easily contained.
PMMZ could have won the heart and mind of all peace loving people, had he refused to go to war, even though, Eritrea was acting irrationally. He simply could have followed the example of the Yemeni president, Ali Abdella Saleh.
During the Hannish crises, when the Yemeni president was challenged, by his people and the opposition, to "teach" Eritrea a lesson; he simply refused to do that, saying - there is a better alternative to war.
We all know the outcome of that wise decision. It is part of our recent history. No need to repeat it.
These days, Ethiopia is being challenged from all fronts. There are countries like, Egypt and the Sudan, with their interest in the waters of the blue Nile. There are countries like Somalia and Eritrea, with unsettled territorial claims. There are the Oromo, Somali and now the Amhara liberation movements. The country is being torn apart from all sides.
But what does the demise of Ethiopia mean to Eritrea? We may have the bragging right of bringing the old empire to its knees. Beyond that, we Eritreans should prepare ourselves, for a very angry and highly militarized and economically invigorated, new neighboring state called, Tigrai. For I believe, if push comes to shove, the TPLF leadership may pull its army and its leadership to its base of Tigrai and declare its independence.
And for those who tend to believe, the demise of Ethiopia will be the end of our problems, think again and think hard. A country of more than five million people, with an overwhelming majority, sharing the same faith, culture and language, will be more than a match to a multi-cultural, multi-religion and multi-ethnic Eritrea.
THE US and the UN : We all know, the US had misbehaved badly in the past. I am speaking about the federation era and the support it gave, to subsequent Ethiopian governments. For that I give them a failing grade.
How about in the months and years after our independence? I would give the US, a passing grade, for its performance in the pre and post independence years. We are all witnesses, to the American government's efforts to facilitate in the transfer of power, from the defeated Dergue to the victorious liberation fronts. Though, the details of meetings in London and Washington are not known, yet. One can't help, but give them a pat on the back, for a job well done.
Though, the fate of Eritrea was pretty much decided on the battle ground, the situation in Ethiopia could have deteriorated into chaos and mayhem. A well armed population of more than sixty million, at the point of disintegration, could have been disastrous and destabilizing.
One of the biggest peace dividend of the smooth transition of power was, the cooperation of the Ethiopian government, to facilitate the referendum and subsequently honor the outcome. Without Ethiopia's cooperation and the blessing from the US, the legality of our Independence could have been held, in limbo, for years to come.
We also remember the years leading to the 1998 war. Eritrea was not only in friendly terms with the US, it was actually a partner, along with Ethiopia and Uganda, in the war to halt the spread of radical Islam, in the horn of Africa.
In those hopeful years, PIA along with PMMZ and their Ugandan counter part, were being promoted, as the new faces of emerging Africa. We were told, with these new leaders in power, Africa was headed in the right direction. We were told, the new leaders were the visionaries that the continent was badly in need of.
And then, the border war between Eritrea and Ethiopia erupted. The US, along with the rest of the world was caught off guard. To the credit of president Clinton and his administration, a shuttle diplomacy was initiated to stop the war. We all remember, the telephone calls from Clinton personally and the numerous dignitaries who frequented the power halls of Asmara and Addis Ababa, pleading with the two leaders, to solve their disagreements peacefully.
The conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, unlike other conflicts in Africa, never suffered as a result of neglect or lack of interest from the outside world. In fact, there was an abundance of goodwill coming from all corners of the world. The UN, the US, the Arab League, the African Union, as well as, individual countries and religious leaders pleaded with the two leaders. This was a war, that could have stopped dead on its tracks, if it was up to the good will of the rest of the world.
Even after the war erupted in full earnest, the UN, the US and the rest of the world were working overtime to end the war. And when the Ethiopian army crossed the Eritrean border and threatened some of the major towns of the country, it was the UN and the US, along with several other friendly countries that came to the rescue of the country.
We don't know, how and why the war ended, abruptly. We don't know, why the Ethiopian government accepted the terms of the Algiers agreements. For that matter, we don't know, why the Ethiopian army stopped a campaign that could have threatened Asmara itself.
The road to Asmara, according to Sebhat Nega was, "yewha menged". While it is difficult to know, what exactly happened in the corridors of power, we know that, numerous exchanges took place between the government of Eritrea and the UN. And I have this lingering feeling, the abrupt manner with which the war stopped, has a lot to do, with pressure from the US and other friendly countries.
However, despite all these, in our anger and frustration, we tend to forget and not forgive. As a result, Eritrea is becoming more and more isolated and in-word looking. We quarreled with the UN, needlessly and endlessly and then abruptly took a sharp turn, when the UN threatened to pull its peace keepers.
Sometimes, its makes you wonder, if Eritrea has any foreign policy.
CONCLUSION : Most of the death and destruction, during cold war, took place in Africa, Asia and Latin America. The big powers, fought their proxy wars, in our own land, using our own people and resources. Now, I am worried, our region may became the next playground, for proxy religious wars.
What I am witnessing is, the making of a disastrous conflict, all in the name of fighting terrorism on the one hand, and the desire to spread an alien brand of Islam, by some neighboring countries, on the other hand. All this, in collaboration with some short sighted local leaders, harboring some old grudges. In short, our region is being setup, to be the next killing ground, for some other people's ideas, beliefs and policies.
When confronted about its dubious Iraq policy, the Bush administration is quick to respond by saying, America is safe; because, the fight for terrorism is being fought outside America. By the same logic, could we also argue by saying, some of the Arab countries may be transferring their problems to our area.
It makes you wonder!!!
alemg200@yahoo.com
