In 1963, a fierce war was ignited in Ogaden, the Somali portion of Ethiopa. Ethiopia triumphed. The Ogaden war was ignited once more in 1977 and the Somali army was making advances but the Soviets, East Germans, South Yemenis, Libyans and Cubans came to the rescue of their prince Mengistu Hailemariam. The Somalis were defeated again. In Eritrea, that meant an opportunity to get at the Dergues’ Ethiopia while it was occupied in the Ogaden. Both the ELF and EPLF raced to liberate towns. The whole country, with the exception of Assab, Massawa, Asmara and a few other negligible camps, was liberated. The lesson many, especially Isaias, learned was that the Ogaden is indeed a painful wound on the Ethiopian body and if poked, it might cripple Ethiopia.
Isaias, whose organization and his propaganda tools have taken it to brand any dissenting Eritrean Muslim citizen as a Jihadist, has never forgotten the Ethiopian wound named Ogaden. Ever since the Badme war between Ethiopia and Eritrea 1998, the PFDJ has planned extensively to find a roundabout way to Ethiopia. The chaos in Somalia has offered it such an opportunity. The regime that aspires to become in the Horn of Africa, “what Israel is in the Arab World” has built a close alliance with the Somali Islamists. The cover was obvious: Isaias tricked the USA into believing that he is an ally in the “war against terror”. That made his regime seem unquestionably loyal. But the man never liked the West or what it stood for as far as human rights and democracy were concerned. A loyal student of Machiavelli, he was willing to build an alliance with a conservative Islamist organization, although the very organization he helped found and captain was rooted in bigotry against Muslims.
The Islamic Courts had access to arms1 for a long time thanks to the PFDJ’s extensive arm dealing activities2- and there are ample purses too willing to shoulder the bill. The logistics was also easy: PFDJ agents are everywhere from Belgium, Italy, Ukraine, China, Kenya, and other places. And thanks to the Red Sea’s extensive money laundering activities, financing the deals was not a difficult feat. And the world is now faced with an extremist group controlling Somalia.
Apart from Somalia, Isaias and his regime have been busy confusing issues in the Sudan a long time. First, the regime does not have any credentials to support “the oppressed”; and its involvement in Sudanese affairs, first in the South, then in Darfur and later in Eastern Sudan is not genuine. The regime does not believe in peace to be reconciling the Sudanese or the Somalis- it is not reconciled at home and shrugs off any call for reconciliation!
Then you have the PFDJ’s involvement in Ethiopia. It has embraced and is sponsoring anti-Eritrean organizations with the sole aim of weakening, fragmenting and finally defeating Ethiopia.
Then you have a top military delegation visiting Djibouti in a time that the whole region is simmering. You see the map and you understand that the whole exercise is not for the benefit of Eritrea or Eritreans; it is a sick mind trying hard to ignite the whole region just to get even with the Ethiopian regime. Regardless of the cost. Regardless of the outcome of the dangerous designs. The whole exercise is to encircle Ethiopia.
Here’s one scenario:
Once the PFDJ manages to ignite a war between Ethiopia and the Islamic Courts (the proverbial Ogaden war), armed Ormos elements are ready to infiltrate through Somalia and open a front in the rest of Southern Ethiopia. Another group of agitators, infiltrating Amhara opposition elements (KINIJT) would be sent to the West of Ethiopia through the Sudan- one reason why the PFDJ is pressuring the Sudan and trying to neutralize it with several pressures. Yet another planned attack is on the table. Djibouti is the major sea outlet for Ethiopia through a major strategic railway from the port to Addis Ababa. Disrupting that line would be on top of the list of any general planning to attack Ethiopia. What is the purpose of Eritrea’s defense minister General Sibhat Efrem’s visit to Djibouti? Even in Djibouti, the PFDJ would certainly be effective in creating some sort of agitating group- it has a rich experience of doing that.
With all the four sides of Ethiopia taken care of, the only natural thing to do for Isaias would be order his army to march South and ignite the fifth flashpoint. In Isaias’ mind, Ethiopia cannot withstand pressure from four synchronized flashpoints. He wants to avenge his ego that bad.
The Sudanese have been blackmailed by Isaias Afwerki for so long (the occupation of Kurmuk by Garang, supported by Eritrean combatants is just an example), they cannot be blamed for yielding to those blackmails every now and then. But as we admire the Sudan for its determination to solve its problems through dialogue, we don’t have much expectation from any deal they reached through the PFDJ, simply because peace and dialogue are oxymorons in the PFDJ dictionary. What we would encourage them to do is to look back and see the history of their relations with the PFDJ and base their strategies on it. We also think that succumbing to the PFDJ, or curtailing the opposition from holding their meetings in Sudan to appease the PFDJ is not a wise decision. The Sudanese authorities should know better. But they are in for a surprise. Isaias is clearing the Sudanese border for two reasons, 1) to alleviate the shortage of essential supplies for Eritreans who would import food and other perishables from Sudan and 2) to pave the way for his master plan to send Ethiopian agitators through the Sudanese territories to the Gondar region- one of his planned flash points to strangulate Ethiopia.
The Horn & The Eritrean Opposition
Inexperienced politicians are overwhelmed by any development—because it is all new to them. Seasoned politicians are under whelmed by all developments—they adopt a jaded “been there, done that” attitude, even when the developments are new, demanding new approaches. The latter is what is affecting our opposition: a jaded outlook, and an endless patience and the same reaction to every stimulus.
The Horn of Africa provided a very favorable opportunity to the Eritrean opposition particularly in the last five years, but very few benefits were reaped. The ruling party in Eritrea picked fights on the direction of all the four winds and when it was done, it jumped continents and called a confrontation with the whole world. It alienated itself and chose to dwell in its siege mentality. Neighboring countries opened their doors to the opposition. But the opposition forces are too slow, too dismissing and, unfortunately, lack imagination and creativity. Years were wasted debating whether the opposition should wage “peaceful struggle” or “armed struggle.” Years more were wasted planning meetings, conferences, congresses and bilateral, trilateral meetings that produced very little. Years more were wasted dissolving, splintering and merging. It is rare to witness appointments in weeks- everything is in terms of six-months to a year. In short, the sense of urgency is not there. Many have said the opposition should consider itself an ambulance driver in a rash to save a life. But alas, our leaders forgot the goal and busied themselves in the processes- busy about power politics when there is no power to exercise, much less politicize.
